psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Since the 12z euro run...we have had a combined 7 model runs by various models to get to euro level and only one came close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff. Yes. 24 hours of light snow. I was going by the 6hr precip panels. I get lucky out here for a few hours and get banded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Will need to see the individual panels but UK at 96 has a 1006 low over southern OH/northern KY....looks like the transfer is starting based on the isobars. 120 due east of OC MD by about 100 miles. 144 985 near Nova Scotia. Ninja’d by yoda 8-10 on ukmet Seems like guidance is starting to converge on 4-6” from the WAA. Higher potential from the coastal but that’s where guidance diverges right now so who knows. Yes, I’d love a HECS but right now, that’s a low probability. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Aren’t most models 3-5 days out now showing a mean of over 4 inches???! Not 20 inches, but this is DC, not Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also. It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. That dosent even sound like you lol HECS storms are 90% confined to El Niño’s for a reason. A 5-10” storm in a Nina is good. Doesn’t mean we can’t do better. 96 happened. 2006 came really close...I guess some isolated spots in MD did get 20” so for them that’s HECS level. But I guess my expectations this year are muted. Have to factor in the background state we’re trying to overcome. I do think the euro is more right here. But I guess I also expect it to come down to earth some. Maybe like a 60/40 compromise between the euro and other guidance. That’s still a pretty damn good storm. And if the euro caves and we get a 5-10” storm...that’s not the worst thing in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. I just logged on and took a brief look at the 00z runs tonight. One of the best details I'm seeing is in regard to the first 6 hrs of the event with the WAA piece. The airmass ahead of the precip is ripe for a better snow consistency as boundary layer temps are pretty cold. The 850-700mb Frontogen on the CMC/Euro is pretty respectable, so the crystal structure would start out as more dendritic, then shift as the 850mb WAA noses in, and we proceed to larger aggregates with more rime exteriors. You don't need hefty precip in order to have some respectable totals for the area. The CMC is a beautiful compromise for WSW criteria snowfall. Of course, a 12z Euro presentation would be epic for a multitude of reasons, but the potential for a formidable event has increased in my eyes, just off the initial slug that presents itself on Sunday and Sunday night. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB EURO 0Z last night, 12Z today, tonight???!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 FWIW the Canadian Ensembles def took a step to the Euro. More costal action. Not a full on cave but a good look. Still going at hr 105 but there's a 6" snow contour centered just west of DC. Awaiting further panels. edit: general 6-8" mean, super super close to the EPS, still snowing so might add on just a tiny bit to that 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Cmc 13 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC looks like a really big hit on WxBell with the kuchera! Snows for ~48 hours. pretty euro-esque... close to HECS territory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Really similar to the EPS for sure. 20 minutes to find out if the Euro is leading the charge. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 In terms of what can go wrong, seems suppression is now less likely, but the issue is whether we get a clean coastal transfer and the exact placement of that transfer relative to the coastline...for example we are not seeing the models giving the coastline or the VA NC border a raging snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Geps was almost a full cave to eps. It does drive the primary slightly further north but otherwise it’s pretty much gone to the euro. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Geps was almost a full cave to eps. It does drive the primary slightly further north but otherwise it’s pretty much gone to the euro. So.....we're putting $50 on the GFS, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Aren’t we within a day of weighing the deterministic models more than the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: So.....we're putting $50 on the GFS, right? The gfs has been having some rough times lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The gfs has been having some rough times lately. I agree.... so $100 on the GFS? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Aren’t we within a day of weighing the deterministic models more than the ensembles? I thought the general rule was 72 hours. So that sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It’s almost worth the euro caving to the GfS to see Ji’s reaction. Also, is the old adage of the Euro usually follows it’s cousin the UKMet still valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Agree, huge movement on the GEPS. Big changes wrt comma shape and heaviest snows. Looking very euro tonight vs last several runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: All it takes is one cave by gfs and all gefs members follow Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Exactly. It’ll keep ticking each run, I’ll bump this later but I would bet before this storm happens the gfs has more snow on a suite than the euro for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Would it be nice to have the GFS on board? Sure. Fine. But with just this past week, who do you really want in our corner? Euro could cave tonight for all we know, but if the Euro still won't let that bone go, I'm know which one I'm putting my faith in, especially given that other models are more closely aligned with it than the GFS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I agree.... so $100 on the GFS? Is it the handoff/transfer that’s causing the gap of light precip in SE pa, N de etc. seems that region is stuck between dying waa and too far southeast to benefit from coastal.... aka how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol NAO remains firmly negative as does AO. Looks like we finally get a -EPO in 10 days or so. Tonight's GFS advertising some serious cold 2nd week of February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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