Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

[psuhoffman]

Before I get flooded with “don’t worry” I don’t think this misses. We’re now inside the range the euro went way south with previous storms.  And even if it adjusts south some it might come back north a little at the very end. It’s doing that now with tonight’s snow down in NC and south VA.   I think we’re pretty close to the final solution on the euro. It’s pretty locked in with only some wobbles on the EPS the last 36 hours.  But the bigger threat to a total fail is still suppressed imo if your north of DC.  Doesn’t mean I expect that fail. 

[SnowDreamer]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z EPS Probs 3, 6, 12

 

That's not the end of the run. You're slacking man! 

 

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, gopper said:

  2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This looks beautiful. I'm assuming the only reason we aren't being blued/yellowed is because it's an ensemble run? That's my main issue. Our big storms, the deform and even WAA snows show 1-2 inches an hour, sometimes even higher. This shows like a quarter inch to a half inch an hour.

History also shows that these type storm tend to juice up more as we get closer assuming the low forms in the right place.

Maybe it's just been so long since we tracked a potential MECS/HECS, but I just remember 2016 seeming so locked in from basically a week out and just insane snowfall totals and qpf amounts really far out. You would just think such a long duration coastal, as this is depicted, would be showing at least equally obscene totals, if not more.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

You’re talking about the GFS right?  Not the storm as depicted by the Euro/EPS?

Yea 

[Cobalt]

16 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears.

 

I am rooting for the GFS... just give me a 2-4 inch WAA snow, then maybe another 1-2 inches with the wrap-around showers, the Euro is threading a needle that is more likely to go the JMA/KMA/NAVGEM route.

I went and looked for a comparison on QPF on ensembles with the Jan 2016 Blizzard at this range (96 hours, so Monday the 18th during that week), and found that the 12z Monday EPS was about 1.5" QPF for DCA... now that sounds super comparable to the 1.1" QPF the EPS drops on DC for this 18z run if I'm not mistaken. Not obviously saying that this is a super close look to that, that was a juiced up stj wave in a Nino with a great(er) airmass in place. We won't get that look in a Nina. However, it seems like this is the best look we could ask for at range in a Mod Nina, and so if you're looking for the super big dogs, you'll probably have to search for them in a different ENSO state.

[SnowDreamer]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just been so long since we tracked a potential MECS/HECS, but I just remember 2016 seeming so locked in from basically a week out and just insane snowfall totals and qpf amounts really far out. You would just think such a long duration coastal, as this is depicted, would be showing at least equally obscene totals, if not more.

I think 2016 was perhaps more anomalous in its modeling consensus than even its snowfall. It was unusual to say the least. I don't think we get that often, even in MECS/HECS

[Heisy]

20 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears.

 

I am rooting for the GFS... just give me a 2-4 inch WAA snow, then maybe another 1-2 inches with the wrap-around showers, the Euro is threading a needle that is more likely to go the JMA/KMA/NAVGEM route.

Is this a troll?

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I liked 6z and 12z better. More tucked slp. An escape southeast and late capture is by far the biggest threat to missing a big snow if your north of DC. Places southeast of DC would wave that but honestly if your more then 20 miles east of 95 you have to mix for places west of the fall line to get a huge snowstorm. I hate to be brutally honest but in almost every HECS for places like Winchester or IAD or me and mappy southeast of 95 has to mix.  That doesn’t mean the can’t get a lot of snow. But sorry the eastern shore and the blue ridge aren’t both getting 20” snowstorms. If lower MD is getting a 20” pure snow I am probably smoking cirrus. 

This simply isn’t true. 96 and 2016 had zero change over. It is possible to have a wrapped storm and still be cold smoke. Yesterday’s euro was almost ideal for 80% of the area. That would be how both things can be true. Mountains get a lot and the coastal plain as well. 
 

What we saw today generally only favored the usual areas. And that was over the mini melt about it being too suppressed. Now it’s a serious risk for primary too far NW into Ohio which crushes thermals. We don’t need more tucked. Then too much of the area floods. 
 

It’s a bit much to imply the ONLY way to get the best snow is to say every storm HAS to sit on top of VA Beach when that is fraught with issues elsewhere. 

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just been so long since we tracked a potential MECS/HECS, but I just remember 2016 seeming so locked in from basically a week out and just insane snowfall totals and qpf amounts really far out. You would just think such a long duration coastal, as this is depicted, would be showing at least equally obscene totals, if not more.

This is not going to be 2016 imo.  This could be a big storm but that was historic. If you are expecting 2016 then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Before I get flooded with “don’t worry” I don’t think this misses. We’re now inside the range the euro went way south with previous storms.  And even if it adjusts south some it might come back north a little at the very end. It’s doing that now with tonight’s snow down in NC and south VA.   I think we’re pretty close to the final solution on the euro. It’s pretty locked in with only some wobbles on the EPS the last 36 hours.  But the bigger threat to a total fail is still suppressed imo if your north of DC.  Doesn’t mean I expect that fail. 

Suppression has been the worry with every storm since December. I don’t think this is that same animal. I think this is do we get the transfer soon/fast enough.

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

I think 2016 was perhaps more anomalous in its modeling consensus than even its snowfall. It was unusual to say the least. I don't think we get that often, even in MECS/HECS

I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

This simply isn’t true. 96 and 2016 had zero change over. It is possible to have a wrapped storm and still be cold smoke. Yesterday’s euro was almost ideal for 80% of the area. That would be how both things can be true. Mountains get a lot and the coastal plain as well. 
 

What we saw today generally only favored the usual areas. And that was over the mini melt about it being too suppressed. Now it’s a serious risk for primary too far NW into Ohio which crushes thermals. We don’t need more tucked. Then too much of the area floods. 
 

It’s a bit much to imply the ONLY way to get the best snow is to say every storm HAS to sit on top of VA Beach when that is fraught with issues elsewhere. 

1996 is the first storm I remember and we definitely had a period of sleet and I was just west of 95 in the Baltimore area.

[Quasievil]

3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled

2010 was a sick el nino with crazy blocking. Much different pattern.

[notvirga!]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled

For the most part all of the mid Atlantic HECS have been well modeled inside 5-7 days since the early 90s. (I’m including March 93). Jan 00 was MECS and a colossal failure in modeling. 

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

This is not going to be 2016 imo.  This could be a big storm but that was historic. If you are expecting 2016 then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.  

Was just throwing out the most recent of our big storms. Could throw out 2009, 2010, 2003, 2000, etc. I just remember big qpf totals really far out for 2016, and that storm was only 24 hours. This could be 1.5 to almost 2 times that.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The second 2010 storm wasn’t even on the radar 5 days prior

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

This simply isn’t true. 96 and 2016 had zero change over. It is possible to have a wrapped storm and still be cold smoke. Yesterday’s euro was almost ideal for 80% of the area. That would be how both things can be true. Mountains get a lot and the coastal plain as well. 
 

What we saw today generally only favored the usual areas. And that was over the mini melt about it being too suppressed. Now it’s a serious risk for primary too far NW into Ohio which crushes thermals. We don’t need more tucked. Then too much of the area floods. 
 

It’s a bit much to imply the ONLY way to get the best snow is to say every storm HAS to sit on top of VA Beach when that is fraught with issues elsewhere. 

96 I changed to sleet all the way in Herndon. Wasn’t a big deal mostly light in the dry slot. 2016 the extreme dry slot prevented mixing since there was no precip during the mid level warm intrusion but the effect was the same, places southeast of 95 didn’t get the 30”+ totals NW did. I think your misunderstanding me. I’m not saying places like DC and Annapolis and EZF can’t get a lot of snow from a HECS where Winchester and I do. They can. But if the western end northern parts are getting big hits they are probably flirting with a dry slot and some sleet.  For the deform to set up along the coastal plain (where there is no oragraphic aid also) it likely means a rapid drop off in totals NW of 95. Those are very rare but happen. The knickerbocker storm is an example.  That gave DC 28” of pure snow but it wasn’t that big up here or in Winchester. Totals dropped off rapidly NW of 95.  If we want a true forum wide 1 foot plus places southeast of 95 probably can’t Jack and will flirt with dry slot or mix. Otherwise the NW 1/2 of the forum will get left out. That’s simply climo on these type storms. Of course everyone should root for the most snow in their yard. If you Jack and I get 3” so be it. I won’t hate on ya. I’m just pointing out what the typical outcome is. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

1996 is the first storm I remember and we definitely had a period of sleet and I was just west of 95 in the Baltimore area.

Lived just inside the beltway here in Va and it was powder here. Where I live now has mixed for PD 2 and 2010. But a couple others during prime climo managed to stay powder and still be warning + events

[Quasievil]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

96 I changed to sleet all the way in Herndon. Wasn’t a big deal mostly light in the dry slot. 2016 the extreme dry slot prevented mixing since there was no precip during the mid level warm intrusion but the effect was the same, places southeast of 95 didn’t get the 30”+ totals NW did. I think your misunderstanding me. I’m not saying places like DC and Annapolis and EZF can’t get a lot of snow from a HECS where Winchester and I do. They can. But if the western end northern parts are getting big hits they are probably flirting with a dry slot and some sleet.  For the deform to set up along the coastal plain (where there is no oragraphic aid also) it likely means a rapid drop off in totals NE of 95. Those are very rare but happen. The knickerbocker storm is an example.  That gave DC 28” of pure snow but it wasn’t that big up here or in Winchester. Totals dropped off rapidly NW of 95.  If we want a true forum wide 1 foot plus places southeast of 95 probably can’t Jack and will flirt with dry slot or mix. Otherwise the NW 1/2 of the forum will get left out. That’s simply climo on these type storms. Of course everyone should root for the most snow in their yard. If you Jack and I get 3” so be it. I won’t hate on ya. I’m just pointing out what the typical outcome is. 

Don’t want to contribute to banter but I’m in Annapolis and the afternoon for the storm in 2016 was brutal as we dry slotted and the sun came out while it bombed to the north. Tough.

[Weather Will]

We have the potential for a foot or more of snow in a La Niña winter,  reflect on that until the next EURO run...we are in rare air....

[Quasievil]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

True 

Best Miller b of all time here 

More like 3 storms in 2010. A surprise one at the end of January (8~9”) followed by the ridiculous bomb at the beginning of February, than that sick Miller B a week later. Crazy times.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, H2O said:

Lived just inside the beltway here in Va and it was powder here. Where I live now has mixed for PD 2 and 2010. But a couple others during prime climo managed to stay powder and still be warning + events

It’s possible you dry slotted before the mid level warm intrusion in 96. But sleet did make it as far NW as IAD.  The dryslot is caused by the same function as the mixing. The mid level warm intrusion also often times up with the dry slot because it signals the rapid WAA has ended (the cold has been displaced) and so you get light or no precip. Whether it’s sleet or just dry doesn’t make a difference to snow totals lol. 

[KAOS]

That tucked in look is what concerns me as it relate to places east of 95 and including the metros. Just my common sense "analysis" based on decades of living in the region and from being on this board. I have seen this movie before to some extent. Of course I am hoping for the "best" outcome for everyone.

[Quasievil]

Anyone want to extrapolate the 0Z NAM tonight? That would be fun. 

[Yeoman]

PD2 mixed far inland.  I sleeted for hours.  Would have been half a foot more 

It was a hell of a lot colder leading up to it, too.

[psuhoffman]

Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this.  Carry on. 

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s possible you dry slotted before the mid level warm intrusion in 96. But sleet did make it as far NW as IAD.  The dryslot is caused by the same function as the mixing. The mid level warm intrusion also often times up with the dry slot because it signals the rapid WAA has ended (the cold has been displaced) and so you get light or no precip. Whether it’s sleet or just dry doesn’t make a difference to snow totals lol. 

Had a brief period where sleet mixed in mostly during dry slot in Reisterstown.

[real]

19 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled

The only major DC snowstorm of past 15 years or so that I recall being not well-modeled ahead of time and kind of sneaking up on us, was the December 2009 storm.  I recall even on the Thursday on the day before the storm, the morning forecasts were still for maybe 4 to 8 inches. And by afternoon, it was looking like 8 to 12 inches. And then that the evening, less than 24 hours before the snow started, forecasts started hinting at a foot plus 

[KAOS]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

PD2 mixed far inland.  I sleeted for hours.  Would have been half a foot more 

Agreed. I sleeted for hours as well. It was almost painful to watch.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, real said:

The only major DC snowstorm of past 15 years or so that I recall being not well-modeled ahead of time and kind of sneaking up on us, was the December 2009 storm.  I recall even on the Thursday on the day before the storm, the morning forecasts were still for maybe 4 to 8 inches. And by afternoon, it was looking like 8 to 12 inches. And then that the evening, less than 24 hours before the snow started, forecasts started hinting at a foot plus 

That storm started showing bug totals about 3 days out