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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

One of them will have to budge.  Not sure which.  GFS seems entrenched with no capitulation 

In regards to last event, it took the GFS about 90 to 96 hours to completely cave. Before then it was losing support, much like what is happening now. Even then the solution doesn't seem to bad, all models agree on the WAA aspect.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn.  Now if one of those others move, then yeah....

Yeah, I'm kind of in this camp of thinking right now.  Can't fret too much.  But it is stubbornly consistent which is concerning (annoying?)...and don't much like seeing the light rain/drizzle from about Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, essentially.  We'll see how things evolve.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Don't tease me like that, share!

#1 is uninspiring. The rest though!!!!!!:o

78C43C55-A663-4BC0-B0ED-8FD499828CB0.png.21f9d199e3710ec552c2fcc415e28bcc.png

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wrt the 2015 top analog. That system was a close match wrt h5 but it had absolutely no southern stream interaction unlike this setup which is a major difference. It was a pure NS miller B. There also was not even close to the same blocking leading up to that. It was all pac driven. I would this this setup is more favorable wrt the progression getting to that end result there. On the other hand if I’m being totally forthcoming the setup is slightly less favorable due to the initial wave coming across further north, then those other analogs like 2016/1996/1983.  So I think expectations should be kept under hecs but that shows there is huge upside here and at the least a very good storm is possible if not likely. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn.  Now if one of those others move, then yeah....

And it would be a bit mind- boggling if the euro or cmc would cave, wouldn't it? I mean how much of a window can we reasonably expect this divergence to continue? I woulda thought is the Euro was gonna cave we'd start seeing that today, no?

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