stormtracker Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Decided to go ahead and start the thread today since we are now only 4 days out and moderators have requested it because the other thread is start to devolve a bit. This is a storm mode thread, meaning: Little to ZERO banter Tantrums not tolerated If you see your posts disappearing, you should probably start making better posts Moderators given the green light to bypass normal warning system and just suspend. Other than that....have fun! 9 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think my favorite part of the Euro run is that we have 4-7 inches down region wide with great temps before the coastal is even near our latitude. I really wanna lock up that part 1 and then anything after will be gravy. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro is a textbook pattern for a classic heavy snow event west of 95. Nails the track and strength of the primary to coastal transfer and capture. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I just want to say this again because it feels unreal... The snow starts on Sunday night, and doesn't stop til Wednesday morning on the Euro. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This thing already broke the site! Crazy run for us westerners. And in all honesty the Euro depiction leaves room for an even bigger hit than shown. Nuts. Watch how the precip shield is tugged west at 132 and 138. It is just a sit and spin megastorm. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 There is a vort that comes down from the Lake Winnipeg area that seems to play a very important role in the backside of the trough and slowing down the overall system. We'll have to keep an eye on that. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:45 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Euro is a textbook pattern for a classic heavy snow event west of 95. Nails the track and strength of the primary to coastal transfer and capture. Expand Id say ALONG and west of 95 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 24 hours from now we’ll have better run to run consensus across the guidance on the overall pattern setup...within 72 hours of onset. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 To start off.. this is my biggest takeaway from that run. This is all the snow that accumulates before mixing issues reach even EZF. If we get 6-8" before worrying about the costal.. that's a colossal win 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Reposting for posterity. Good luck fellas. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:46 PM, Cobalt said: To start off.. this is my biggest takeaway from that run. This is all the snow that accumulates before mixing issues reach even EZF. If we get 6-8" before worrying about the costal.. that's a colossal win Expand Agreed, I’d be fine if we got that (in MBY) - anything on top of that is gravy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:46 PM, MN Transplant said: There is a vort that comes down from the Lake Winnipeg area that seems to play a very important role in the backside of the trough and slowing down the overall system. We'll have to keep an eye on that. Expand Could you explain that? Like is that a good thing or a bad thing? I am guessing we would want the vort to do that so the SLP stalls as we saw today for a while down around HSE/ORF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 With how solid the Euro has been on depicting a major storm like this, if it were to quickly change course and look like the GFS, it would be a colossal failure. At this point, we all have to fully expect the GFS to cave within the next 1-3 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 @JakkelWx Biggest problem on the Euro is we dry slot. Surface up to 850 is marginal for a while but the light precip is a killer. At least we don't have to worry about our digital snow disappearing in the next couple runs lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Surface temps are definitely warmer than the Euro was showing a couple of days ago. Upper 20's out this way through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Awesome run. Absolutely love it! Question—so does anyone think there is even a bigger upside potential? What needs to happen? The low needs to shift East away from the mouth of the bay by 20 miles? 30 miles? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:56 PM, Scraff said: Awesome run. Absolutely love it! Question—so does anyone think there is even a bigger upside potential? What needs to happen? The low needs to shift East away from the mouth of the bay by 20 miles? 30 miles? Just curious. Expand Looks perfect to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:46 PM, MN Transplant said: There is a vort that comes down from the Lake Winnipeg area that seems to play a very important role in the backside of the trough and slowing down the overall system. We'll have to keep an eye on that. Expand Ok, a few images. 12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z today. All for Monday 18z. One of the most noticeable things here is that the vort behind the system helps to dig the trough and wrap up the 500 low in the two 12z runs, but it is too late to really help in last night's 00z run. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It’s actually impressive that with a L in the mouth of the bay the thermals in DC proper are not worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Why isn't the precipitation rate much heavier? I would expect it to be snowing heavily, especially in the CCB, but we never seem to get above moderate snow. If we had a storm with this kind of duration with the kind of rates we received from previous storms, the totals would be obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:56 PM, Scraff said: Awesome run. Absolutely love it! Question—so does anyone think there is even a bigger upside potential? What needs to happen? The low needs to shift East away from the mouth of the bay by 20 miles? 30 miles? Just curious. Expand From the 500mb evolution, you can't ask for much more. That late northern shortwave diving in and causing the stall is unusual and I'd normally be skeptical of it, but it's there on almost all the guidance... It just comes down to where the surface low ends up and banding, etc. I think the Euro has shown us that this has the potential for a 18"+ max stripe, question is where it ends up. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 7:00 PM, WxUSAF said: From the 500mb evolution, you can't ask for much more. That late northern shortwave diving in and causing the stall is unusual and I'd normally be skeptical of it, but it's there on almost all the guidance... It just comes down to where the surface low ends up and banding, etc. I think the Euro has shown us that this has the potential for a 18"+ max stripe, question is where it ends up. Expand Would the banding be super important to the thermals? The Euro uniformly has mid 30s while the costal cranks, and I'd imagine that works super well for a paste bomb where it dumps 2" QPF, but not for light rates. Just hoping that thermals ease a bit once we get to mesos range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ETA: Slight positive tilt at h5 on the EPS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 7:02 PM, Cobalt said: Would the banding be super important to the thermals? The Euro uniformly has mid 30s while the costal cranks, and I'd imagine that works super well for a paste bomb where it dumps 2" QPF, but not for light rates. Just hoping that thermals ease a bit once we get to mesos range Expand Yeah, it's a little odd. I don't see why temps would go above freezing like that underneath the CCB. You'll get northeasterly flow and there's plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. I wouldn't worry about it at this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Here we go: 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 7:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah, it's a little odd. I don't see why temps would go above freezing like that underneath the CCB. You'll get northeasterly flow and there's plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. I wouldn't worry about it at this point. Expand The other quick-look thing on temps is that the Euro is keeping a 3-4 degree dew point depression at the height of the precipitation (so, 35/32 at DCA). That's unlikely. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 7:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah, it's a little odd. I don't see why temps would go above freezing like that underneath the CCB. You'll get northeasterly flow and there's plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. I wouldn't worry about it at this point. Expand If anything, just makes me thing the upside here for the I-95 crew and east remains intact from even the good stuff on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Didn't the GEFS sorta look like it was adjusting to the south and the transfer and it put our region into the Miller B no mans land when the transfer is too north? I suspect if the euro is more right then we may see the 0z gfs have a nice coastal hit for the region and hopefully only getting better from there as the euro hopefully holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 7:07 PM, MN Transplant said: The other quick-look thing on temps is that the Euro is keeping a 3-4 degree dew point depression at the height of the precipitation (so, 35/32 at DCA). That's unlikely. Expand Good catch, yeah, you'd think we'd finally wet-bulb fully after 36hrs of precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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