January 27th-28th Boom or Bust Snow Event/Obs

[John1122]

Models are on the uptick state wide with the GFS being downright aggressive. So if figured we may as well  have a last minute forecast and Obs thread for it.  

[John1122]

3k NAM. It also ticked up quite a bit across the area. This one may get Kevin in NE Arkansas as well. 

[John1122]

OHX issued a WWA for their Plateau counties. Says 1-2 inches with higher amounts in spots. MRX issued one for their Plateau counties over into SW VA and NE Tennessee. Generally a 1-3 inch forecast for now. Said they were going to follow the HRRR.

[John1122]

GFS is just incredibly enthusiastic here. 

The V16 can't even keep up. 

 

[fountainguy97]

So for the Eastern areas and actually most of TN today I don't think its temp related. Maybe somewhat but not much.  All 12z models so far change us around the same time. Actually all of them at the exact same between 8-9pm (for my area) same for 06z gfs.

 

The difference is qpf. Here is the precip that falls after the changeover (more or less since we only have 3 hr increments)

Pretty easy to see why hrrr is so snowless. Its not temps. It's inline with others now.  Its the qpf.  The problem is this doesn't make me feel better since the HRRR was the first to steadily show almost no qpf for my area with this last event that busted.

[Daniel Boone]

The problem I believe the SR Model's are seeing regarding moisture is the LP to our SE pulling the moisture closer and into it. I've saw this b4 more than once.

      There is a decent slug that goes thru KY But, as that low cranks a larger area increase and intensifies to our SE therefore creating a weakness or gap of sorts between the two with the Terrain being an aid to that process I believe. 

     Alot of difference I know but, some similarities to the Christmas 2010 snowfall. General 3 to 5" amounts from areas to our west then, transfer/ strengthening Southern LP created that weakness and the area between the 2 saw lighter amounts. 2.7" at my home. KTRI  an inch.

[1234snow]

Surface temps will most certainly be an issue for us in this event. Let’s hope for a slightly slower solution.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Almost 60 at my nearest weather station. It’s in the shade at 1300 feet.  Clouds moving in just in time to lock it in. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

925 mb surface analysis looks ok:

 

N or NW flow across most of TN, even eastern valley areas..

But 850 mb looks a wee bit worse:

WSW or SW flow. 

 

I still think areas around TRI (especially Bristol to Abingdon and NE on 81 and even Johnson County and Elizabethton and maybe even Unicoi) will do ok, but not sure I can see much for SW of Fall Branch.

Hopefully I'm wrong, I would love even a dusting or mood flakes. 

[fountainguy97]

20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

925 mb surface analysis looks ok:

 

N or NW flow across most of TN, even eastern valley areas..

But 850 mb looks a wee bit worse:

WSW or SW flow. 

 

I still think areas around TRI (especially Bristol to Abingdon and NE on 81 and even Johnson County and Elizabethton and maybe even Unicoi) will do ok, but not sure I can see much for SW of Fall Branch.

Hopefully I'm wrong, I would love even a dusting or mood flakes. 

Going to be close but temps are flaming hot at the surface and all 12z models are backing off. Most of the heavy precip is moving out before temps can get cold enough.  Just one of those events.

This stronger low is going to deliver the goods to our friends over in NC though. We will catch the next one 

[Daniel Boone]

53 here currently at just over 1700 feet. Alot of sun today but, clouds are moving in now. Terrible timing. 

[fountainguy97]

just soared to 60.1!  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wind's cranking up here now, WNW 15 mph with gusts to 20. Some of the plateau weather stations in Cumberland County are dropping pretty quick and some places like Pickett and Fentress never warmed as much. Think it is too much to overcome for MBY, but I guess we'll see. My general area has dropped 6 - 10 degrees in the past couple of hours. 

[monoptn]

We have got quarter sized flakes and 36 degrees in Montgomery County.  

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, monoptn said:

We have got quarter sized flakes and 36 degrees in Montgomery County.  

 

Good to hear that the atmosphere is overcoming the boundary layer issues! 

[Icy Hot]

58, cloudy, and breezy in Kingsport. Currently 6 degrees above predicted high.

[Kentucky]

43 in Corbin, need this to system to slow down but it's actually speeding up.

[tnweathernut]

Spotter report from my 80 year old dad in Westmoreland in northern middle Tennessee (the man who inspired me to love the weather and especially snow) telling me they have changed over there with some pretty big flakes falling.....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Down to 46.9 now, (that counts as 46, right?) from near 60. Ten more degrees is apparently all I need. 43, twenty-five minutes up the road near the Obed. Looks like most locations around Crossville are near 40. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Based on tnweathernut's ob. I susupect some of that bright banding around Nashvegas is wet snow. 

Actually, Radarscope says yes:

 

Time to check out some webcams

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Web cams show snow between Mt Juliet and Lebanon. Hopefully that and the cooler temps keep cruising down I-40. 

 

Cookeville looks like it is still virga, same up here in MoCo. 

[PowellVolz]

Temp in N Knox Co fell from 55 to 45 in 2 hours.


.

[John1122]

42 degrees here. DP 25. Kinda dry air but I think it may switch over fairly fast here. Just hope for QPF. 

[Daniel Boone]

44.0 here.  Temp  fell from 54.4 to 44.0 in an hour and 25 mins. Brisk northerly wind of 5-20 mph.

[fountainguy97]

52.7 light rain

[jaxjagman]

Just a big tease,to warm to stick,least we can say it snowed

[Kentucky]

Snow in London, down to 40 now in Corbin and a dewpoint of 27.

[John1122]

Temp is down to 40 with specked blues and greens starting to move in. Nothing reaching the ground here yet though.

[Shocker0]

35 in Crossville. Light rain, everything seems to be going north of here though so we probably won't get much if any.

[Shocker0]

Actually it has changed to snow now, but there's nothing on radar behind it