February 2021 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to defined normal period (expect this to remain 1981-2010 for a few more months yet) for these nine locations ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

The deadlines and late penalties now in force are as follows:

enter by 0600z 1st, no late penalty

enter by 1800z 1st a late penalty of 1%

enter by 00z 2nd, late penalty of 2%

enter by 03z 2nd, late penalty of 3%

enter by 06z 2nd, late penalty of 4%

after 06z 2nd, late penalty increases to 1% per 2h interval. It increases further to 1% per hour at 06z 3rd. 

__________________________________

These late penalties will be assessed unless participants supply a valid health-related reason for being late and also stipulate that they have seen no useful guidance since 0600z 1st. The late penalty is designed to offset advantages gained from later guidance rather than being punitive just for lateness alone.

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.0

NYC +2.0

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +1.0

ATL:  0.0

IAH:  0.0

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA:  +0.5

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0       1.0     1.0       0.0     1.0       1.0          0.0      1.0      0.5 

[Roger Smith]

--4.5 __ --4.7 __ --5.2 ___ --6.0 __ --7.5 __ --3.0 ___ +1.5 __ +2.5 __ +2.3

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.2

NYC   +1.2.

B0S:  + 1.4

ORD: -1.0

ATL:  -1.3

IAH:   +0.3

DEN: -0.5

PHX: +2.7

SEA:  +0.6

[so_whats_happening]

DCA  +1.6

NYC +1.2

BOS +1.0

ORD -1.0

ATL  +1.4

IAH  +1.8

DEN +1.4
PHX +1.2
SEA +1.8

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4     -0.3     -0.1       -1.9     0.8      1.6          -0.3     1.1     -0.4 

[Tom]

DCA  -1.5

NYC  -1.4

BOS  -1.0

ORD -2.5

ATL  -0.9

IAH  +0.9

DEN +0.5

PHX +1.2

SEA +1.2

 

[bkviking]

 

DCA: +1.7

NYC +1.2

BOS: +0.8

ORD: +0.5

ATL:  0.8

IAH:  0.5

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +1.0

SEA:  -0.5

Roger, you’re scaring me with those negative departures.. 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.3

NYC +1.1

BOS: +0.1

ORD: - 0.3

ATL:  - 0.2

IAH:  - 0.2

DEN: +1.3

PHX: +1.7

SEA:  +0.9

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -3.1

NYC:  -3.1

BOS:  -1.9

ORD:  -3.2

ATL:  -1.1

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  -1.1

PHX:  +1.3

SEA:  -0.8

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA: 0.2

NYC: 0.3

BOS: 0.8

ORD: -0.9

ATL:  -0.5

IAH: 0.2

DEN: 0.0

PHX: 0.4

SEA: -1.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for February 2021

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ bias

 

RJay _______________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____+0.71

BKViking ___________________ +1.7 _+1.2 _+0.8 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+0.5 ___ +0.9 _+1.0 _--0.5 ____+0.37

so_whats_happening _______ +1.6 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +1.4 _+1.2 _+1.8 ____+0.76

wxallannj __________________ +1.2 _+1.2 _+1.4 ___ --1.0 _--1.3 _+0.3 ___ --0.5 _+2.7 _+0.6 ____+0.11

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____+0.32

hudsonvalley21 _____________+0.3 _+1.1 _+0.1 ___ --0.3 _--0.2 _--0.2 ___ +1.3 _+1.7 _+0.9 ____+0.12

____ Consensus ____________ +0.3 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ --1.0 _--0.2 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.2 _+0.5 ____

DonSutherland1 _____________+0.2 _+0.3 _+0.8 ___ --0.9 _--0.5 _+0.2 ____ 0.0 _+0.4 _--1.0 ____--0.46

____ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____--0.40

RodneyS ____________________ --0.4 _--0.3 _--0.1 ___ --1.9 _+0.8 _+1.6 ___ --0.3 _+1.1 _--0.4 ____--0.39

Tom ________________________ --1.5 _--1.4 _--1.0 ___ --2.5 _--0.9 _+0.9 ___ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.2 ____--0.79

wxdude64 ___________________--3.1 _--3.1 _--1.9 ___ --3.2 _--1.1 _+0.6 ___ --1.1 _+1.3 _--0.8 ____--1.78

Roger Smith _________________--4.5 _--4.7 _--5.2 ___ --6.0 _--7.5 _--3.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.5 _+2.3 ____--3.13 (-5 e/c)

_____________________________________________________________

highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal is the coldest forecast for PHX (all forecasts +ve). 

Bias measures your average departure from consensus. This may not be regionally the same, in my case

my bias was a rather unusual -5 for east and central regions, and around +1.5 west. Bias may help you

and especially me analyze our forecast tendencies for later correction (or self-congratulation, probably 

correction though). 

[Roger Smith]

First look at anomalies and projections, and an update of seasonal snowfalls ...

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th ____ (anom 10d) _____ +0.8 _ --1.1 _ +0.1 __ --9.3 _ +0.8 _ +2.2 __ +0.8 _ +5.2 _ +0.1

21st ____ (anom 20d) _____ --2.6 _ --2.9 _ --2.4 __--12.7 _ --1.1 _--9.9 __ --8.5 _ +2.5 _ --2.6

 

11th ____ (p anom 20d) ____ 0.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 __ --8.0 _ +0.3 _ --2.0 __ --2.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.5 

11th ____ (p anom 28th) ___+0.5 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ --5.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5 __ --1.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.5

21st ____ (p anom 28th) ___ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 __--8.0 __ 0.0 _ --5.0 __ --5.0 _ +2.0 _ --2.0

 

 1st ___ (final anomalies) _ --1.2 _ --1.1  _--0.9 __--7.5 _ +1.5 _--4.7 __--7.1 _+1.3 _--2.0

 

to Feb 28 _________________ 5.4" _38.6" _38.4"__47.0"_DTW41.3"_BUF71.5"_33.6"_BTV 58.2"_12.9"

__________________________________________ ** + ** + ** ____________________________________

11th _ Extreme cold has dominated most of the Midwest and plains states but has made only limited impacts on the east and southeast. A rather mild start to February has faded in the west as the extensive arctic outbreak spills into the Rockies. The next ten days do not look a lot different although the east will probably accumulate slight negative anomalies and cold will deepen for a while in DEN and SEA. The projection for the 21st to end of month (using GFS guidance to 27th) was based on zonal flow returning and a more normal regime across the northern states. 

Snowfall totals will be updated in this table whenever new snow is reported at any of the nine locations.

My very cold regime looks like it might bust at all locations except ORD and IAH, and there it will be a case of hanging on at the end.

16th _ Major changes to snowfall at SEA which got a heavy dumping over the weekend, additions to some other locations.

ORD is now at -12.5 for an anomaly and DEN is down to -9.3, IAH has dropped to -5.9, ATL slid down a bit to +1.3. Recent daily anomalies near -50 F deg have been reported in parts of Texas. On the 15th, DFW had a lower max (14F) than its previous record low min (15 F). 

28th to 1st March _ Anomalies are being posted as they appear overnight ... scoring is being updated as these values are adjusted. ... As of 1520z the anomalies are all confirmed and scoring is now final.

[Roger Smith]

Here are the forecasts for the snowfall contest (last updated Feb 28 in the previous post) ...

 

Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021  -- Table of entries

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep

snowfall to Feb 28___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.4 ___47.0 _ 41.3 _ 71.5 __ 33.6 _ 12.9 _ 58.2

 

wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 81.7 (24.2)

Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 ____117.9 (21.2) 

hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 ____114.4 (21.6)

Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 165.7 (24.8)

Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 118.1 (23.7)

wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 ____ 125.3 (20.0)

RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 83.5 (39.2)

Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____112.9 (55.5)

RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____113.7 (76.0)

__ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______100.3 (25.2)

snowfall to Feb 28 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.4 ___47.0 _ 41.3 _ 71.5 __ 33.6 _ 12.9 _ 58.2

_________________________________________________________________________

Current best forecasts are in red. Underlined means settled as there was no higher forecast. 

In the "total current departure" the first number is subject to reductions as your higher forecasts converge on the

eventual totals but a few forecasts (including all at SEA and NYC) are already below the outcome and so the

number in brackets is your total non-reducible error (the portion of total departure that can only grow larger).

Hard to say who has the advantage at this point, the larger departures will catch up at 2x new snowfalls (in

some cases, if you're above the seasonal total and fellow competitor is below) until new snowfalls increase

beyond predictions.  

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for February 2021

Scores are based on final anomalies as listed two posts back in the thread. 

Scores with ^ symbols are based on the max 60 rule, any raw scores that would be higher are left standing.

With eleven forecasts, the scoring progression for boosted scores is 60, 54, 48, 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 06, 00.

DEN needs minimum progression, the highest raw score at present is only 11. (outcome -7.1, lowest fcst -1.1).

Scores for IAH would also go to this progression if max raw score was under 60. That would require an anomaly of -5.1 or colder. 

With warmer weather setting in (20th) this is still going to be difficult (-9.6 after 21 days, est -9.0 after 22).

However, at the end, very warm weather has reduced the anomaly to -4.7 which produces a max score of 66 and

eliminates the scoring boost (sorry, I was the culprit there).

ORD has performed a similar reduction of the previously huge negative anomaly to -7.5, and once again you're stuck with

raw scores because of my wild guess of -6.0.  Despite those two point-bagging episodes, my other cold forecasts scored low

and I'm at the bottom of the table anyway.

For the minimum progression adjustments, consensus will be the same as one of these and Normal is scored from its relative position.

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL 

 

RodneyS ___________________ 84 _ 84 _ 84 ___ 252 __ 19 _ 86 _ 00 __ 105 __ 357 __ 48^_ 96 _ 68 __ 212 _____ 569

Tom _______________________ 94 _ 94 _ 98 ___286 __ 25 _ 52 _ 00 __ 077 __ 363 __ 30^_ 98 _ 36 __ 164 _____ 527

wxdude64 __________________62 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 202 __ 39 _ 48 _ 00 __ 087 __ 289 __ 60^_100 _76 __236 _____ 525

____ Normal ________________ 76 _ 78 _ 82 ___ 236 __ 00 _ 70 _ 06 __ 076 __ 312 __ 42^_ 74 _ 60 __ 176 _____ 488

DonSutherland1 ____________ 72 _ 72 _ 66 ___ 210 __ 09 _ 60 _ 02 __ 071 __ 281 __ 42^_ 82 _ 80 __ 204 _____ 485

Scotty Lightning ____________56 _ 58 _ 62 ___ 176 __ 00 _ 90 _ 00 __ 090 __ 266 __ 42^_ 94 _ 50 __ 186 _____ 452 

 

____ Consensus ____________ 70 _ 58 _ 66 ___ 194 __ 10 _ 66 _ 00 __ 076 __ 270 __ 30^_ 98 _ 50 __ 178 _____ 448

BKViking ___________________42 _ 54 _ 66 ___ 162 __ 00 _ 86 _ 00 __ 086 __ 248 __ 24^_ 94 _ 70 __ 188 _____ 436

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 70 _ 56 _ 80 ___ 206 __ 03 _ 66 _ 10 __ 079 __ 285 __ 12^_ 92 _ 42 __ 146 _____ 431

so_whats_happening _______44 _ 54 _ 62 ___ 160 __ 10 _ 98 _ 00 __ 108 __ 268 __ 06^_ 98 _ 24 __ 128 _____ 396

wxallannj __________________ 52 _ 54 _ 54 ___ 160 __ 10 _ 44 _ 00 __ 054 __ 214 __ 54^_ 72 _ 48 __ 174 _____ 388

RJay _______________________36 _ 38 _ 32 ___ 106 __ 00 _ 70 _ 06 __ 076 __ 182 __ 18^_ 94 _ 50 __ 162 _____ 344 

Roger Smith ________________34 _ 28 _ 14 ___ 076 __ 85 _ 00 _ 66 __ 151 __ 227 __ 00 _ 76 _ 14 __ 090 _____ 317

_____________________________________________________________

========================================================

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

Four locations are wins for coldest forecasts -- ORD and IAH (Roger Smith), DEN (wxdude64) and SEA (DonSutherland1).

ATL is a win for highest forecast (so_whats_happening). 

=========================================================

IAH has been adjusted and annual scoring (Jan-Feb) will follow later today. 

Worth noting that 7 of 9 locations averaged below normal in February, the average departure of all nine was --2.3 F.

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Feb) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> 

 

FHigh scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

RodneyS ______________________ 160 _170 _170 __500 __ 69 _148 _ 52 __269 __ 769 __112 _184 _164 __460 ____ 1229

DonSutherland1 _______________142 _128 _114 __384 __105 _152 _ 96 __353 __ 737 __114 _166 _146 __426 ____ 1163

BKViking ______________________ 132 _150 _164 __446 __ 20 _152 _ 72 __244 __ 690 __ 68 _178 _158 __404 ____ 1094

 

___ Consensus ________________ 158 _154 _154 __466 __ 38 _128 _ 66 __232 __ 698 __ 78 _182 _130 __390 ____ 1088

 

wxdude64 _____________________ 142 _134 _156 __432 __ 61 _102 _ 66 __229 __ 661 __ 86 _194 _134 __ 414 ____ 1075

 

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 146 _126 _142 __414 __ 51 _130 _ 82 __263 __ 677 __ 60 _170 _140 __370 ____ 1047

Tom ___________________________ 160 _168 _174 __502 __ 25 _ 90 _ 64 __ 179 __ 681 __ 62 _192 _ 98 __ 352 ____ 1033

Scotty Lightning _______________ 134 _134 _132 __400 __ 06 _152 _ 88 __246 __ 646 __ 88 _172 _114 __ 374 ____ 1020

wxallannj ______________________ 140 _154 _142 __436 __ 38 _120 _ 48 __206 __ 642 __ 66 _170 _128 __364 ____ 1006

Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _108 _ 84 __314 __111 _ 98 _158 __367 __ 681 __ 74 _ 104 _100 __278 _____ 959

___ Normal _____________________124 _134 _142 __400 __ 00 _112 _ 64 __176 __ 576 __ 78 _172 _124 __374 _____ 950

so_whats_happening ___________144 _112 _100 __356 __ 56 _158 _ 42 __256 __ 612 __ 54 _190 _ 72 __316 _____ 928

RJay __________________________ 134 _112 _ 82 __ 328 __ 56 _112 _ 64 __232 __ 560 __ 84 _142 _ 78 __ 304 _____ 864

 

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

wxdude64 ____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

so_whats_happening _________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

RJay _________________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, nine locations out of 18 have qualified, 4 in Jan and 5 in Feb. Of those, five were awarded to warmest forecasts, four to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb ______ TOTAL to date

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 _______ 4-1

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 _______ 3-0

wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 _______ 1-0

so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 _______ 1-0

__________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

Four seasons contest results -- winter 2020-21

Belated report on the first instalment of the Four Seasons contest report. Points awarded for total scores Dec 2020 to Feb 2021. Highest total gets ten points and second receives seven, from there down to two points for seventh and one point for anyone who entered 2/3 contests or more. 

FORECASTER _____________ TOTAL SCORE DEC 2020 + JAN-FEB 2021 ___ POINTS

DonSutherland1 ___________ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _________________________ 10

RodneyS __________________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 __________________________ 7

___ Consensus ____________ 689 + 1088 = 1777 __________________________ 6

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 716 + 1047 = 1763 __________________________ 6

BKViking __________________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 __________________________5

Tom ______________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ___________________________4

wxallannj _________________ 668 + 1006 = 1674 ___________________________ 3

Scotty Lightning __________ 586 + 1020 = 1606 ____________________________2

wxdude64 ________________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ___________________________ 1

RJay ______________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ____________________________ 1

Roger Smith _______________580 + 959 = 1539 ____________________________ 1

___ Normal ________________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ____________________________ 1

so_whats_happening ______ dnp + 928 = 928 ____ (2/3) ___________________ 1

______________________________________________________________

Points for consensus and Normal do not alter the progression of points for forecasters.