Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ScottieBird]

The only 1989 storm I remember was an epic February bust that destroyed Atlantic City with well over a foot but spared just about everybody else although a big one was forecast up the coast.

[NeonPeon]

22 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

BOX corrected its forecast. It's obvious a senior forecaster cleaned the mess up. Maybe someone was bombed during the overnight shift? I'm expecting 2 to 4 in Newport. A far cry from the odious forecast this AM of 8-12. This storm kinda reminds me of a Feburary 1995 snow event.

They expressed the uncertainty in the discussion, and there's been wide model variance especially in this area.  I wouldn't want to be them, you're being more than a little harsh, especially since some models (and I don't believe them) are showing those amounts, still.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nice collage and effort here !

no not trying to nit pick ( seriously ...) but I have such vivid memories of the week leading and throughout that 1996 event to confidently argue, it is/was really only similar to what is presently modeled,  as it landed on the EC in that 7am window of the 8th that year.  The frames leading got there differently and I that very much matters in my mind -  what that sort of signifies to me is this storm is relatively unique of that's 96 variant is a top dawg comparison - although that QPF distribution (presently...) looks similar.   

1996 was a close roller that ran into a cold loaded damming event ... This is closing and deepening in the other direction - just sayn'

But I do think hemispheric and "super synoptic"  ( mean synergistic effects ) this system is rather unique. It's formulating in the R-wave seam ... which is why it is moving so slow.  The one 1996 was in a slower medium/flow rate.   Perhaps it doesn't matter "how" we get there - agreed... I mean it is what it is.  If it does similarly when it's there who is gonna care. Lol. But, ... this one I think has a bit of dark uncertainty to it because of that "Lagrangian" wave space.

The thump "Lagrangian"s its way through in like 10 hours...I mean, if that is slow, WTF is fast?

[It's Always Sunny]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The thump "Lagrangian"s its way through in like 10 hours...I mean, if that is slow, WTF is fast?

That's what she said.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

They expressed the uncertainty in the discussion, and there's been wide model variance especially in this area.  I wouldn't want to be them, you're being more than a little harsh, especially since some models (and I don't believe them) are showing those amounts, still.

Not often people, with their first post, epically meltdown. Kudos to him, he will fit in well with weeping whiners.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

That's what she said.

People keep ogling over stall this, capture, crawl, lagrangian....PS: 10 hour burst, then some sprinkles. Yea, I get that the stall doesn't happen in a great spot for us, and the dynamics wane, but it's frustrating as hell. Not to mention whacking it to your 8SD NAO block and -10 wind chills, as you prep the rain gauge. 

[NeonPeon]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Not often people, with their first post, epically meltdown. Kudos to him, he will fit in well with weeping whiners.

He lives in Newport and likes snow. It's enough to break any of us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Geez...euro coming in west again thru 33.

[dryslot]

18z Euro looks a couple tics NW of the 12z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Geez...euro coming in west again.

Thankfully the SSW propagated. 

[Hoth]

Just now, dryslot said:

18z Euro looks a couple tics NW of the 12z run.

Congrats Pfreak.

[White Gorilla]

30 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

The only 1989 storm I remember was an epic February bust that destroyed Atlantic City with well over a foot but spared just about everybody else although a big one was forecast up the coast.

I still have nightmares.  Don't trigger me 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So tight it’s dryslotting PA lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let it play out for the Se Mass folks please 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro looks a couple tics NW of the 12z run.

I was told it was all SE from here. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So tight it’s dryslotting PA lol.

It fills in though...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It fills in though...

Thank god

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I was told it was all SE from here. 

Better go ask what the person that told you was smoking.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I was told it was all SE from here. 

That starts when the midnight models come out I heard.

[dryslot]

Far from SE

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This euro run is going to have issues for a lot of eastern ma I think. Very marginal

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Better go ask what the person that told you was smoking.

Probably the same good shit the those crying in NNE all week were.

[dryslot]

Crushed.

[weathafella]

It’s amp happy.   Toss

[Bostonseminole]

yikes for the folks in SE MASS.. even here I probably flip for a bit, 950's get close here

[Ginx snewx]

PBP sucks lol. Damn sweet run here

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

Crushed.

NJ Coast low?!  You and Phin get the strong warm conveyor belt

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good thump then dryslot. Hats off to the canadians.

[PhineasC]

Just now, weathafella said:

It’s amp happy.   Toss

The models are all following the Euro on this one, IMO. GFS weak sauce is the outlier. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, weathafella said:

It’s amp happy.   Toss

Enjoy the taint like the rest of us.