Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still digging out from the Norlun.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

I've been following SNE weather for over 35 years and I've never seen a forecast as bad as the absolute CRAP NWS Taunton put out this morning.  If the person who signed off on that forecast this morning has healthcare from your government job, be grateful because you haven't earned this healthcare policy based on competence.

Pretty harsh.   Do tell us the difference between your thoughts and NWS.   

[WinterWolf]

Did he get anything from the Norlun?  It looked like it was snowing out there pretty decent the other evening on radar...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just snuck into the winter storm watch here 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Did he get anything from the Norlun?  It looked like it was snowing out there pretty decent the other evening on radar...

nothing, inconsequence arctic sand he said no accumulation

[78Blizzard]

RAP is on board.  It's the American models vs. the rest of the world.

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

I've been following SNE weather for over 35 years and I've never seen a forecast as bad as the absolute CRAP NWS Taunton put out this morning.  If the person who signed off on that forecast this morning has healthcare from your government job, be grateful because you haven't earned this healthcare policy based on competence.

How do you know that the forecast is “CRAP” or incompetent?

Until the storm is already over, I don’t see how you have room to judge them like that. Especially since you haven’t given your own thoughts.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

No, but I think it's a nyc, ray, screwgie in between deal. They happen. 

You’ve never had a storm where you thought you weren’t screwed. Like ever. So you’re thinking 3-5 there 

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

I've been following SNE weather for over 35 years and I've never seen a forecast as bad as the absolute CRAP NWS Taunton put out this morning.  If the person who signed off on that forecast this morning has healthcare from your government job, be grateful because you haven't earned this healthcare policy based on competence.

Epic 1st post.

[ScottieBird]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pretty harsh.   Do tell us the difference between your thoughts and NWS.   

they were forecasting 8-12 this AM for 150 thousand people along the south coast of Rhode island.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, ScottieBird said:

they were forecasting 8-12 this AM for 150 thousand people along the south coast of Rhode island.

In fairness the model consistency has not been great.  Forecasts change.

[Damage In Tolland]

I’d ask everyone here to fast forward to 2:45 in this song .. turn it up as loud as possible and just let it rip. It’s absolutely one of the best rock compilations ever released. Just rip it. And think about the snow coming 

 

[weathafella]

Just now, ScottieBird said:

they were forecasting 8-12 this AM for 150 thousand people along the south coast of Rhode island.

Ok and what was your total for the storm presuming you measured and shoveled?

[Fozz]

Just now, ScottieBird said:

they were forecasting 8-12 this AM for 150 thousand people along the south coast of Rhode island.

Looks like they’ve cut that down quite a bit now. It shouldn’t have been done, but it was very early, even before the watches were issued.

[ScottieBird]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Epic 1st post.

When I was a kid circa 1989 a forecast that bad would've infuriated me because I would've believed it but 3 decades later laymen now have all these tools and we're able to TOSS crap forecasts even if they emanate from supposedly credible governmental sources.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

I've been following SNE weather for over 35 years and I've never seen a forecast as bad as the absolute CRAP NWS Taunton put out this morning.  If the person who signed off on that forecast this morning has healthcare from your government job, be grateful because you haven't earned this healthcare policy based on competence.

You have earned your first weenie. A gift from me to you. Welcome to the board and enjoy the bun.

[ScottieBird]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ok and what was your total for the storm presuming you measured and shoveled?

BOX corrected its forecast. It's obvious a senior forecaster cleaned the mess up. Maybe someone was bombed during the overnight shift? I'm expecting 2 to 4 in Newport. A far cry from the odious forecast this AM of 8-12. This storm kinda reminds me of a Feburary 1995 snow event.

[WxFreak11]

Local Mets here in Rhode Island only forecasting 2-5 inches fir the Providence area. What a big freaking fail!

[WeatherWilly]

NBC 10 is forecasting 1-2 inches of taint. Great.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

they were forecasting 8-12 this AM for 150 thousand people along the south coast of Rhode island.

I want a everybody’s heard about the bird 

[PhineasC]

So much angst from the coastal crew.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I want a everybody’s heard about the bird 

The bird’s the word?

[It's Always Sunny]

Just now, PhineasC said:

So much angst from the coastal crew.   

As Will Nilly said coastal folks in MA are gonna get taint. 95 and west deal.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I want a everybody’s heard about the bird 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

So much angst from the coastal crew.   

Snow is serious business.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

When I was a kid circa 1989 a forecast that bad would've infuriated me because I would've believed it but 3 decades later laymen now have all these tools and we're able to TOSS crap forecasts even if they emanate from supposedly credible governmental sources.

You’re a youngin’

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

While we wait for the 00Z cycle to come in i took a dive into CIPS to check some analogs. Looks like the blizzard of 96 is #1 for the NAM, the interior Northeast event of 1994 at 2 (what kocin would call a "near-miss storm" and the blizzard of 2016 and 2015 at 3 and 4.

The GFS 84HR analog #1 is the blizzard of 2015. A 1989 storm i dont recognize and a Feb 1996 Nor'easter. I didnt notice this one either but looked it up and has striking similarities with the snowfall distribution with two maxes, one around NYC/NJ and the other in E NE Mass.

Mean 72-HR snowfall has a really wide area of 8-12" over most of SNE for the top 15 analogs. 

These change run-run but seems that Jan 96 and Jan 15/16 have been hitting hard on the top 5 for a while now. 

Nice collage and effort here !

no not trying to nit pick ( seriously ...) but I have such vivid memories of the week leading and throughout that 1996 event to confidently argue, it is/was really only similar as it landed on the EC in that 7am window of the 8th that year.  The frames leading got there differently and that very much matters in my mind -  what that sort of signifies to me is this storm is relatively unique ..if that's 96 variant is a top dawg comparison - although that QPF distribution (presently...) looks similar.   

1996 was a close roller that ran into a cold loaded damming event ... This is closing and deepening in the other direction - just sayn'

But I do think hemispheric and "super synoptic"  ( mean synergistic effects ) this system is rather unique. It's formulating in the R-wave seam ... which is why it is moving so slow.  The one 1996 was in a slower medium/flow rate.   Perhaps it doesn't matter "how" we get there - agreed... I mean it is what it is.  If it does similarly when it's there who is gonna care. Lol. But, ... this one I think has a bit of dark uncertainty to it because of that "Lagrangian" wave space.

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

As Will Nilly said coastal folks in MA are gonna get taint. 95 and west deal.

Depends on what you mean on how far west. I don't believe taint will reach outside of 128 but that's me.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The bird’s the word?

A fantastic song 

 

[It's Always Sunny]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Depends on what you mean on how far west. I don't believe taint will reach outside of 128 but that's me.

Most folks west of 95 should do pretty well, but "well" still may not be enough for some here.