Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Thought they were In Killingly?

They not 

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

?

Spelling.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Tight is best

Open it up?

[PhineasC]

GFS is so boring. It’s basically all alone now too. Toss it. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Spelling.

Ahhh. Lol...gotcha. 

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS is so boring. It’s basically all alone now too. Toss it. 

Supported also by the NAM so far and GFS v16

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahhh. Lol...gotcha. 

[SouthCoastMA]

We v16 and we NAM, until we dont

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Supported also by the NAM so far and GFS v16

The NAM is better for everyone. The old GFS is basically only interesting in the SE corner of Mass. v16 is in the middle. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Supported also by the NAM so far and GFS v16

It sucks that's why they're replacing it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Supported also by the NAM so far and GFS v16

The soon to be retired GFS does not look anything like the v16 or NAM

[Damage In Tolland]

WSW’s to Maine’s 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The NAM is better for everyone. The old GFS is basically only interesting in the SE corner of Mass. v16 is in the middle. 

Garbage in, Garbage out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Although Maine gets flooded with warm air.  I don't imagine there are many cases in history where ME is too warm while DC is crushed,

2010.

[Hoth]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Once again GFS v 16 looks basically the same. 

We've been so close to getting smoked. Really hoping for a few last minute ticks.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

We've been so close to getting smoked. Really hoping for a few last minute ticks.

Trend is still NW, IMO. Powderfreak feigning disinterest but he is lurking. LOL

[Hoth]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Trend is still NW, IMO. Powderfreak feigning disinterest but he is lurking. LOL

Oh for sure. Freak always finds a way to clean up.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Trend is still NW, IMO. Powderfreak feigning disinterest but he is lurking. LOL

This will tic SE each run here on out. That’s how coastals work in New England the final 24

[40/70 Benchmark]

Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game.

Time will tell-

In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This will tic SE each run here on out. That’s how coastals work in New England the final 24

So your 14" not in trouble?

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The NAM is crushing for most...it seems to depict the firehose idea very well.  We can only hope it’s right. If it is..it’ll be one to remember. 

NAM is pretty meh up here but I’ve also never been expecting too much in NW MA.  I also don’t buy its depiction of a couple of inches here, I’m thinking more like 4 - 6” for Greenfield. 

[The 4 Seasons]

While we wait for the 00Z cycle to come in i took a dive into CIPS to check some analogs. Looks like the blizzard of 96 is #1 for the NAM, the interior Northeast event of 1994 at 2 (what kocin would call a "near-miss storm" and the blizzard of 2016 and 2015 at 3 and 4.

The GFS 84HR analog #1 is the blizzard of 2015. A 1989 storm i dont recognize and a Feb 1996 Nor'easter. I didnt notice this one either but looked it up and has striking similarities with the snowfall distribution with two maxes, one around NYC/NJ and the other in E NE Mass.

Mean 72-HR snowfall has a really wide area of 8-12" over most of SNE for the top 15 analogs. 

These change run-run but seems that Jan 96 and Jan 15/16 have been hitting hard on the top 5 for a while now. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game.

Time will tell-

In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.

Yeah, not gonna lie.....might be me.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game.

Time will tell-

In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.

Anyone do a wellness check on Jimmy?

[dryslot]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Anyone do a wellness check on Jimmy?

Still digging out from the Norlun.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

So your 14" not in trouble?

 

I mean this is not a NNE deal for the meat and potatoes 

[ScottieBird]

I've been following SNE weather for over 35 years and I've never seen a forecast as bad as the absolute CRAP NWS Taunton put out this morning.  If the person who signed off on that forecast this morning has healthcare from your government job, be grateful because you haven't earned this healthcare policy based on competence.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean this is not a NNE deal for the meat and potatoes 

No, but I think it's a nyc, ray, screwgie in between deal. They happen. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still digging out from the Norlun.

poor guy. i never thought hed get those 8-11" amounts i saw him forecast but figured he could pick a few inches and not just a few flakes. Havent heard from him at all this storm. I mean theres a chance he gets accumulating snow, albeit, Jimmy Carrey level chances in dumb and dumber...but theres a chance.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

poor guy. i never thought hed get those 8-11" amounts i saw him forecast but figured he could pick a few inches and not just a few flakes. Havent heard from him at all this storm. I mean theres a chance he gets accumulating snow, albeit, Jimmy Carrey level chances in dumb and dumber...but theres a chance.