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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game.

Time will tell-

In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.

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32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The NAM is crushing for most...it seems to depict the firehose idea very well.  We can only hope it’s right. If it is..it’ll be one to remember. 

NAM is pretty meh up here but I’ve also never been expecting too much in NW MA.  I also don’t buy its depiction of a couple of inches here, I’m thinking more like 4 - 6” for Greenfield. 

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While we wait for the 00Z cycle to come in i took a dive into CIPS to check some analogs. Looks like the blizzard of 96 is #1 for the NAM, the interior Northeast event of 1994 at 2 (what kocin would call a "near-miss storm" and the blizzard of 2016 and 2015 at 3 and 4.

namanalogCapture.thumb.JPG.ddd06abbbea9db76665d14d0d8c0682a.JPGAVGPC72_nam212F060.png.e15fecf053e266b6e64b95696a1d1aef.png

The GFS 84HR analog #1 is the blizzard of 2015. A 1989 storm i dont recognize and a Feb 1996 Nor'easter. I didnt notice this one either but looked it up and has striking similarities with the snowfall distribution with two maxes, one around NYC/NJ and the other in E NE Mass.

gfsanalogCapture.thumb.JPG.b74353113cfa19af758fb80ef4f02bb5.JPGNJSnow-16Feb96.png.ebb880870c25b1081a1d3fddfb5d52b8.png

Mean 72-HR snowfall has a really wide area of 8-12" over most of SNE for the top 15 analogs. 

633928183_meeeanMEDSN72_nam212F060(1).png.f913465908b08c881d3d4771067172a3.png

These change run-run but seems that Jan 96 and Jan 15/16 have been hitting hard on the top 5 for a while now. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game.

Time will tell-

In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.

Yeah, not gonna lie.....might be me.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game.

Time will tell-

In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.

Anyone do a wellness check on Jimmy?

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I've been following SNE weather for over 35 years and I've never seen a forecast as bad as the absolute CRAP NWS Taunton put out this morning.  If the person who signed off on that forecast this morning has healthcare from your government job, be grateful because you haven't earned this healthcare policy based on competence.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still digging out from the Norlun.

poor guy. i never thought hed get those 8-11" amounts i saw him forecast but figured he could pick a few inches and not just a few flakes. Havent heard from him at all this storm. I mean theres a chance he gets accumulating snow, albeit, Jimmy Carrey level chances in dumb and dumber...but theres a chance.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

poor guy. i never thought hed get those 8-11" amounts i saw him forecast but figured he could pick a few inches and not just a few flakes. Havent heard from him at all this storm. I mean theres a chance he gets accumulating snow, albeit, Jimmy Carrey level chances in dumb and dumber...but theres a chance.

 

B47572C3-D4B6-4652-99BB-3F0951CA5B82.gif

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