Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What was the problem with the EPS?

Nothing for your area or my area. Might be cutting it close near the coast though around BOS and south shore. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The canadians were onto something. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What was the problem with the EPS?

Nothing. Looks good for most away from SE coast.

[WeatherWilly]

Things can still change but never felt I was in a good place for this one. Gone from a cape scraper to a slop drop, with higher amounts west.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ICON looks great...ticker-tape parade for of misfit toys-

I still think this will tick back east before go-time.....much of eastern Mass can probably approach a foot.

Yeah I dunno.  This looks like an above moderate event at this point.  Matter of how much so - that will iron in time.  Could be bigger than some think..

But too bad!  Some will lose-out, relative to that. Someone, somewhere, always will.   'Name of the game...  And to them this will be moderate...pedestrian...pick the woe-is-me adjective.  They'll dust off and live to witness the next boning somewhere else while they get the EOF3 tornado later that summer...  And the SE zones cry and bitch their way into a Hurricane Bob scenario while the 30" Orange MA snow storm gloaters will have just spent 4 months in a drought and half to watch green tropical-mode rain curtains miss to their SE for being just out of reach...

It's a dumb engagement if one is in here for e-tropic highs - like any addictive behavior...  but I'm wondering...wait, what the fu was I talking about...

Yeah, so, yesterday, I was concerned that this might try to gather around a more coalesced/potent look once additional less-than-noticed mechanics relayed off the Pacific during the day today and here we are.  That/its influence on this thing may not be done?  We could have seen the beginning of a two cycle modulation and actually ...the cross-hairs on the hemispheric signal isn't over NJ with the closed 500 mb..it's more like SE of ISP ... NJ works ..sure. But if this whole structure did what you said there above...nah, it's within the framework -

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We could use the scooter shit streak to hold on for a little longer now. That would help get this organizing further east. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing for your area or my area. Might be cutting it close near the coast though around BOS and south shore. 

We know Messenger bumps are coming though. No real worries down there 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We know Messenger bumps are coming though. No real worries down there 

I would agree with a progressive northern stream miller B but a blocky bowling ball flow...not so sure.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We could use the scooter shit streak to hold on for a little longer now. That would help get this organizing further east. 

I may need to have some IPAs tonight. Will let you know how it turns out before the 12z NAM tomorrow. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I may need to have some IPAs tonight. Will let you know how it turns out before the 12z NAM tomorrow. 

Pound them like you’ve never pounded them before. Keg stands, shotguns, funnels...whatever it takes. 

[powderfreak]

Still lots of variability. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may need to have some IPAs tonight. Will let you know how it turns out before the 12z NAM tomorrow. 

Beans and broccoli for dinner shound work.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Those ensembles are funny 

pick a number

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The fact that tip is honking has my interest. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run is a bit too warm at the surface during heavy precip, judging by H925, so I'm not saying to toss it, but handle with care. Check H925 tems:

 

[IowaStorm05]

NAM coming in and so far it ain’t lookin north like the others.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

NAM coming in and so far it ain’t lookin north like the others.

Crushes PA.

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Crushes PA.

They all have lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

They all have lol.

Long duration storm there.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Crushes PA.

I don’t see that.  This seems a step back.

[IowaStorm05]

Just now, dryslot said:

They all have lol.

Kinda. But more or less but at this point one has to wonder, which of the following is more common? reality heavily veering toward one of these disagreeing models, or does it blend and average out of all of them.

 

as recent as years 2016-2017, maybe even more recent, I can remember significant model disagreement right up to the starting hour where forecaster goes for “blend”

[WeatherX]

What a crush job for CT on the Nammy through 54. Nice to see it ramped versus dampened

[dryslot]

Crushes LI actually now that i looked.

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

Crushes LI actually now that i looked.

Warm conveyor belt just slays through Long Island.

[weathafella]

Buried eastern New England 

[Henry's Weather]

H5 closes later!

[ORH_wxman]

Looks similar to 12z. Maybe a tickle east. 

[Henry's Weather]

still open at 21z Monday

[powderfreak]

Good look for ya’ll.

[WeatherX]