Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

Man, that thing gets stretched out to the northeast...conveyor gets a little disjointed late in the game. 

Definitely issues inside of 128 this run. 

[CoastalWx]

Crush job just west of BOS.

[ORH_wxman]

Ray to ORH jack this run for New England. 

Big hit for NJ/E PA with the ULL being tucked a little further west. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What a sloppy mess for Boston points south. Yuck.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Crush job just west of BOS.

Yeah I’ll take this run and sign on the dotted line for the 495 belt. That’s actually pretty close in BOS too. Wonder if Jerry would get pasted with like a foot while Logan was getting a waterlogged 5”. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like 00z a bit better....its a shade west....touch warmer w less precip here.

Noise.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ray to ORH jack this run for New England. 

Big hit for NJ/E PA with the ULL being tucked a little further west. 

I'm hoping that includes 10 miles east of you.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics. 

The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”  

I wonder of this will do that rare sky before a coastal, where you see virga bulbs and tendril moving actually WSW aloft ...

Normally, that virga phase/entry into the event, the evaporation is pre-closure up around the 700 mb level, so the motion isn't west yet... it's still SW--> NE.. Meanwhile, town flags wobble or taut NE down low with whipping grains just before the first aggregates dance beneath the lamp lights in the blue tinted dusk..  You're like, this feels big -   

But roughly around 18z on Monday... across the area, look to those skyware features. I bet they're moving WSW early ... because the modeling ( as you've noted wrt to the GGEM ..etc..) are closing off earlier, and deeper, and I suspect the 700 disk is about to do so quickly ...maybe prior to the saturation below..

There's some argument as to whether that arc moving N in the bevy of guidance is an initial IB ...  But it also looks to me like this thing is establishing a CCB conveyor in tandem, so it's difficult to know what is sort of a quasi trowal/instability axis, versus -   fascinating.   Maybe collocating multiple processes

[CoastalWx]

Not sure I like the ULL getting its act together further SW on today's runs.

[WeatherX]

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What a sloppy mess for Boston points south. Yuck.

Pretty much.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually hi res much better.

Post?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Give this type of event over a subby hold ridden, CJ plagued mess like 12/17, any time, any day.

I  know it sucks south of Boston, it time to regress, I guess. It heartens the soul, but regress-eh, digress.....lol

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like 00z a bit better....its a shade west....touch warmer w less precip here.

Noise.

NARCAN maps will probably be pretty grouchy at the 33F sfc temps in the 495 belt. But in this situation I wouldn’t worry about it with 925 temps of like -2. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The CT skipjob is real. We’re gonna need some east ticks next 48hrs so this doesn’t blow all over EPA/NJ.

[dryslot]

Cut back a bit up here from 00z but still a good 8-12".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I like the ULL getting its act together further SW on today's runs.

Nope. We need to stop that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I like the ULL getting its act together further SW on today's runs.

No, its not good....there is no uncertainty about it. Question is does it trend far enough to completely pork us.

This season is always LBSW.

Hate it.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I like the ULL getting its act together further SW on today's runs.

Yep. We want that to delay a bit. Or just have everything happen a little further east like the NAM run today. 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What a sloppy mess for Boston points south. Yuck.

 

[EastonSN+]

19 inches in Greenwich to 9.7 in Bridgeport to 6.5 HVN

West is best for coastal CT Peeps.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, its not good....there is no uncertainty about it. Question is does it trend far enough to completely pork us.

This season is always LBSW.

Hate it.

This is the one time our fast flow hopefully helps inside of 48h. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. We want that to delay a bit. Or just have everything happen a little further east like the NAM run today. 

The EURO usually is a bit fast to do that, but it has been the seasonal tenor.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The CT skipjob is real. We’re gonna need some east ticks next 48hrs so this doesn’t blow all over EPA/NJ.

I could see it tucking more north. Any ticks east have been like pulling teeth over the past 36hours. 

Just now, moneypitmike said:

 

Lady you're scaring us

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The CT skipjob is real. We’re gonna need some east ticks next 48hrs so this doesn’t blow all over EPA/NJ.

8-12 sounds good for us, for now....we can adjust as we get within 24 hours...18" is my max since we moved in 2014, looks to remain that way.

[dryslot]

Everyone has different wants, ha ha.

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m not concerned in CT about those odd holes that have appeared over each portion of the state on various runs. The only issue will be valley shadows. With that h85 look on Euro most of state is bombed

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like 00z a bit better....its a shade west....touch warmer w less precip here.

Noise.

Ok I finally have to ask...,Is that area of lower snow totals in the western half of Merrimack County New Hampshire, from Concord west and north a real thing? I have to guess it is because it is showing up on almost every piece of guidance. Perhaps it’s a shadowing on a northeast wind from mountains? But that should only happen on the north northeast wind.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Everyone has different wants, ha ha.

Well, we can all agree that the ULL closing off over Nashville isn't ideal.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

E MA has been the jack for qpf on most model runs for a couple of days now.  If we can just get some dynamics going, this should turn out great.