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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Too early. Some guidance like NAM and GFS tickled back SE a bit. 06z euro did too so it’s hard to accept the Canadian solutions right now. Major difference in how the upper air is treated. 

Yeah... we’ll see. I’m not holding my breath... we’ve seen this movie a lot down here 

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ORH_wxman
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Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics.  The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”  

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GUYS!!!!     I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.    

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weathafella

weathafella

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Widespread warning snows.  I’m finally looking out at a mby snow cover and it’s beautiful.   New snow and lots of it coming late Monday.   That BOX expected snow map ends 7AM Tuesday so more after that.   My worry is taint but I’m thinking we’re mostly snow in terms of what the majority of qpf will be.   But models and firehoses have trouble it seems.   Another thing is a lot of night snow.  It seems so many events peak at night.   

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

( made it to page 76 of this marathon but stopping at a hydration station - phew...)

Wow ...not a big fan of these type of products ( my contribution over the years elucidates that - I almost never post anything based upon them tho rarely...).

That image on the left ( more recent ..) is a flat out K.U. ...guessin' leve 2 approaching 3 NESDIS impactor.   It's multi-regional, and this thing's under-footing hemispheric support had those that look to it all along...and we should note that models have been relaying ownership of more eastern PA pummeling back and forth during the pick-and-choose earlier ranges of this system's model monitoring .. .I think we'll see a consensus more in line with the left panel going forward, with one, two .. or four cycles worth of one or two models trying but failing to f it up...  But another 3-5" tacked on to  that distribution ( which I'm thinking is more plausible than not...) in that mean coverage and we move the NESDIS to a 3/4 contention...

But 2/3 is probably major by virtue of regional inclusion - that's massive up there folks... Mammoth envelopment to realize 12" ...that's hard to do ...  Usually ( think about this..) you get a regional 8-11" with a band or two approaching 24 ... Dec 17 kept the big daddy goods focused along that axis.. but, that mean distribution like that means you gotta have a few individual members blowin' the top of the climate books on this thing.. .but more importantly atones to aforementioned orbital perspective of this thing...as we get closer, the model blends, ens means, and individual members are trending toward the erstwhile unrealized maximization of this... that's usually a red flag -

In principle alone ...that trend it gushing!!

Just take it all off, dude.....no one judges here.

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40/70 Benchmark

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looking at the 00z EPS/GEFS means in their respective handling ... I would be inclined to ask, 'how about now'?  I will hold off pending both this 12z suite, but also because that sounds douchy - lol

( Also- I am presently on page 69 of this thread and can see it's ballooned by another 12 clicks ...so I am behind, so taken with a grain - )

I would not toss the 06z ICON solution's trend for robuster 500 mb depth ... The hints that are carried through those frames suggestive that the model "wants" to truly stall and protract a CCB in the area, is highly supported by the general tapestry of the EPS/GFS means... 

I feel the 00z Euro was the right idea in bumping back NW but I am a little non-plussed that it's 500mb hgt depth went the other way by 4 or 6 dm after the close/quasi closure  - the EPS mean being deeper is still the better fit for the larger orbital telecon/super-synoptic and observed synoptic surrounding hemisphere, and this thing has been shirked for realization of that offers the region between 90W-60W and ~ 35N and 55 N boxed region along.  I have maintained that ...altho admittedly, pounding the moderate snow + duration)/2 = bootleg major sort of Broadway production, but I'm seeing attempts by the above ens means to get this more fully realized.   The 00z/06z ICON blend actually looks like a better surface featured physical representation of what this thing should do...

It seems every model is carrying something that seems more reasonable withing a bag of their own idiosyncratic distractions.  Take the NAM ...I agree with the 06z solution that keeps the QPF arc in tact around the NW arc, but it seems to be too progressive with the lower troposphere in general ..given the 500 mb is also trending toward a NY Bite anchor point. 

about that - notice the 500  mb 522 dm height core in the ICON!!  Over NY, ...implodes than pivots SE under LI toward 96 hours... That type of motion usually means there is a F- wara effect going on with a lower tropospheric vortex that is pivoting W temporarily... Yet we're not quite seeing that depicted ...that's uneasy and I thnk this overall situation could modulate toward a major event anyway from NYC-PWM ...  Hammer's cocked and the psycho is gently squeezing the trigger - it's that close

The title of this thread can be changed from watching closely to Immanent, with 'major characteristics looking more possible' or something to those affects.

First of all, no one is ever a douche for calling me on something that ends up incorrect....especially if it results in more snow lol

Secondly,I never said it was impossible...just pretty rare, but if its ever going to happen, it would be with an extreme NAO block on the level of 2010.

Lets just let it play out, though...

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dryslot

dryslot

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Posted
1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

I will jump off a bridge If I get an inch, Worcester gets 12”, Albany gets 12”, Downeast Maine gets 20”, VT / NH gets 12”, Pennsylvania gets 15”, and NJ next to NY gets 12”.   And I get 1” of glop.  

Take another trip up to Andover..............;)

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Posted
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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too early. Some guidance like NAM and GFS tickled back SE a bit. 06z euro did too so it’s hard to accept the Canadian solutions right now. Major difference in how the upper air is treated. 

I'd sell the GEM, as usual. But if that did happen, yea....see you for cane season.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, no one is ever a douche for calling on something that ends up incorrect....especially if it results in more snow lol

Secondly,I never said it was impossible...just pretty rare, but if its ever going to happen, it would be with an extreme NAO block on the level of 2010.

Lets just let it play out, though...

things is ... ( and it offers you a defense anyway ..-  )

I don't personally think the we are in a moderate to strong planetary-conductive mode of La Nina... I think we are in a low amplitude mode ( and NCEP is repeatingly referring to it as just that.. "low amplitude La Nina" - some one down there in DC is on to this).  

From there ...I have a my John-ism supposition that the HC ..which mimics, may ( and I believe does frankly - ) be constructively interfering with the La Nina, because both distribute the SST metric similarly;  sea surface stressing/increases in the HC's easterly Trade wind mass balancing/ at low latitudes, to counter the insane speeds at west vectors/mid latitudes...etc... strongish HC circulation general eddy logic .. 

I think the HC is fuggin with the ENSO climo by exaggerating cool regimes and attempting to bury warm ones ...Not absolute - god I hate that... These are spectrum'ed influencers ..( I know you get that, just in general).

But I've also talked about this super-position hypothesis before ...and also still believe that it is almost impossible to parse out the relative forcing contribution of either...  I do wonder though ...if the La Nina mode was assume bigger in amplitude  based upon SSTs alone, that may not reflect in the total hemispheric mode(s) if the SSTs were assumed to be entirely La Nina driven - the latter may be over-assessed in that spirit.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

things is ... ( and it offers you a defense anyway ..-  )

I don't personally think the we are in a moderate to strong planetary-conductive mode of La Nina... I think we are in a low amplitude mode ( and NCEP is repeatingly referring to it as just that.. "low amplitude La Nina" - some one down there in DC is on to this).  

From there ...I have a my John-ism supposition that the HC ..which mimics, may ( and I believe does frankly - ) be constructively interfering with the La Nina, because both distribute the SST metric similarly;  sea surface stressing/increases in the HC's easterly Trade wind mass balancing/ at low latitudes, to counter the insane speeds at west vectors/mid latitudes...etc... strongish HC circulation general eddy logic .. 

I think the HC is fuggin with the ENSO climo by exaggerating cool regimes and attempting to bury warm ones ...Not absolute - god I hate that... These are spectrum'ed influencers ..( I know you get that, just in general)

I agree with you, but it still technically a mod la nina....its incumbent upon the seasonal forecaster to correctly account for said changes.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Need a wx weenie simulator, create your own blizzard

You have no idea what I would pay, and the havoc I'd wreak. You think people are on edge now due to covid? Let mother nature allow me to take the wheel....Feb 2015 from Novie through March, every season.

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