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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Jersey croaked again. Modeling has been all over that.

Models in fairly good agreement of a central NJ and west of Boston jackpot zones.

For CT seems that far SW or far NE best places. What interesting is if u look at most of the KUs SW CT benefits most. Maybe why Tip put SW CT as MA in his map.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol what is the RGEM doing. So different aloft. Cuts off h5 and massively deepens it well Southwest. 

It has always tended to be amped beyond 36.  Feels as if the last 2 years it does it less, I think it was upgraded in 2018 which lessened that bias somewhat but it still does it from time to time

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take

Screen Shot 2021-01-30 at 2.23.01 AM.png

( made it to page 76 of this marathon but stopping at a hydration station - phew...)

Wow ...not a big fan of these type of products ( my contribution over the years elucidates that - I almost never post anything based upon them tho rarely...).

That image on the left ( more recent ..) is a flat out K.U. ...guessin' leve 2 approaching 3 NESDIS impactor.   It's multi-regional, and this thing's under-footing hemispheric support had those that look to it all along...and we should note that models have been relaying ownership of more eastern PA pummeling back and forth during the pick-and-choose earlier ranges of this system's model monitoring .. .I think we'll see a consensus more in line with the left panel going forward, with one, two .. or four cycles worth of one or two models trying but failing to f it up...  But another 3-5" tacked on to  that distribution ( which I'm thinking is more plausible than not...) in that mean coverage and we move the NESDIS to a 3/4 contention...

But 2/3 is probably major by virtue of regional inclusion - that's massive up there folks... Mammoth envelopment to realize 12" ...that's hard to do ...  Usually ( think about this..) you get a regional 8-11" with a band or two approaching 24 ... Dec 17 kept the big daddy goods focused along that axis.. but, that mean distribution like that means you gotta have a few individual members blowin' the top of the climate books on this thing.. .but more importantly atones to aforementioned orbital perspective of this thing...as we get closer, the model blends, ens means, and individual members are trending toward the erstwhile unrealized maximization of this... that's usually a red flag -

In principle alone ...that trend it gushing!!

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

( made it to page 76 of this marathon but stopping at a hydration station - phew...)

Wow ...not a big fan of these type of products ( my contribution over the years elucidates that - I almost never post anything based upon them tho rarely...).

That image on the left ( more recent ..) is a flat out K.U. ...guessin' leve 2 approaching 3 NESDIS impactor.   It's multi-regional, and this thing's under-footing hemispheric support had those that look to it all along...and we should note that models have been relaying ownership of more eastern PA pummeling back and forth during the pick-and-choose earlier ranges of this system's model monitoring .. .I think we'll see a consensus more in line with the left panel going forward, with one, two .. or four cycles worth of one or two models trying but failing to f it up...  But another 3-5" on tact on that distribution in the mean coverage and we move the NESDIS to a 3/4 contention...

But 2/3 is probably major by virtue of regional inclusion - that's massive up there folks... Mammoth envelopment to realize 12" ...that's hard to ...  Usually ( think about this..) you get a regional 8-11" with a band or two approaching 24 ... Dec 17 kept the big daddy goods focused along that axis.. but, that mean distribution like that means you gotta have a few individual members blowin' the top of the climate books on this thing.. .but more importantly atones to aforementioned orbital perspective of this thing...as we get closer, the model blends, ens means, and individual members are trending toward the erstwhile unrealized maximization of this... that's usually a red flag -

In principle alone ...that trend it gushing!!

Lol. Your best one yet. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be just fine near and just inside 128. It’s like -3ish at 925 there.

RGEM tries to get a thin layer around 725mb above freezing, LOL. I was wondering why Ptype algorthms were showing like ORH mixing despite 850 temps of -7C and 925 temps colder than -3C. Even sfc was 30-31F.

Trying to give a SWFE sounding despite H7 flow out of the SE. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM tries to get a thin layer around 725mb above freezing, LOL. I was wondering why Ptype algorthms were showing like ORH mixing despite 850 temps of -7C and 925 temps colder than -3C. Even sfc was 30-31F.

Trying to give a SWFE sounding despite H7 flow out of the SE. 

Yeah WTF LOL. 

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