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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics.  The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”  

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

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TheSnowman
TheSnowman

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half a

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dendrite

dendrite

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Pretty good LLJ with this for eastern parts of the region. There’s enough of a low level easterly component to get those 850 orographic lift differences to pop on the charts. So yeah...not a classic firehose, but it’s a toned down look of one. 12z NAM coming out now, but 6z has multiple things going on. The easterly upslope/downslope regions inland and then the lift near the coastal front and subby zone NW of that. 
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good LLJ with this for eastern parts of the region. There’s enough of a low level easterly component to get those 850 orographic lift differences to pop on the charts. So yeah...not a classic firehose, but it’s a toned down look of one. 12z NAM coming out now, but 6z has multiple things going on. The easterly upslope/downslope regions inland and then the lift near the coastal front and subby zone NW of that. 
image.png

Yeah erly flow always good here. As long as boundary layer is good. :lol: 

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JKEisMan

JKEisMan

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models. 

Got it. Thanks. 
Guess I’m a bit out of date there. I like the ensemble nature but now understand that the models are not state-of-the-art/applicable. That’s opposed to something like the shorter range HREF ensembles, right? 
 

(answered my question above, thanks)

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klw

klw

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If the last two or three seasons have been any indication the models should tick SE later today and early tomorrow and the trend back north with the later runs tomorrow into Monday.  I seems like there is hardly any consensus yet anyway,

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The midlevel deformation is still way inland toward VT. 

Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. 

The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run. 

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