Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Pretty good LLJ with this for eastern parts of the region. There’s enough of a low level easterly component to get those 850 orographic lift differences to pop on the charts. So yeah...not a classic firehose, but it’s a toned down look of one. 12z NAM coming out now, but 6z has multiple things going on. The easterly upslope/downslope regions inland and then the lift near the coastal front and subby zone NW of that. 
image.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good LLJ with this for eastern parts of the region. There’s enough of a low level easterly component to get those 850 orographic lift differences to pop on the charts. So yeah...not a classic firehose, but it’s a toned down look of one. 12z NAM coming out now, but 6z has multiple things going on. The easterly upslope/downslope regions inland and then the lift near the coastal front and subby zone NW of that. 
image.png

Yeah erly flow always good here. As long as boundary layer is good. :lol: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models. 

Got it. Thanks. 
Guess I’m a bit out of date there. I like the ensemble nature but now understand that the models are not state-of-the-art/applicable. That’s opposed to something like the shorter range HREF ensembles, right? 
 

(answered my question above, thanks)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the last two or three seasons have been any indication the models should tick SE later today and early tomorrow and the trend back north with the later runs tomorrow into Monday.  I seems like there is hardly any consensus yet anyway,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The midlevel deformation is still way inland toward VT. 

Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. 

The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...