Hoth Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bob Stokes is a new member of the forum. For real? 90's Weather Channel nostalgia for the win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pretty good LLJ with this for eastern parts of the region. There’s enough of a low level easterly component to get those 850 orographic lift differences to pop on the charts. So yeah...not a classic firehose, but it’s a toned down look of one. 12z NAM coming out now, but 6z has multiple things going on. The easterly upslope/downslope regions inland and then the lift near the coastal front and subby zone NW of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are you going with 12+ for the nutmeg? What are your thoughts? I am still sticking to my 6" being the middle ground for now....4-8 inch range here, will adjust after all of 12z comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models. The HREF is a good ensemble suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Pretty good LLJ with this for eastern parts of the region. There’s enough of a low level easterly component to get those 850 orographic lift differences to pop on the charts. So yeah...not a classic firehose, but it’s a toned down look of one. 12z NAM coming out now, but 6z has multiple things going on. The easterly upslope/downslope regions inland and then the lift near the coastal front and subby zone NW of that. Yeah erly flow always good here. As long as boundary layer is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NaM pasting the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models. Got it. Thanks. Guess I’m a bit out of date there. I like the ensemble nature but now understand that the models are not state-of-the-art/applicable. That’s opposed to something like the shorter range HREF ensembles, right? (answered my question above, thanks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Changes on NAM seem good so far for NE. Lawd, he comin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: What are your thoughts? I am still sticking to my 6" being the middle ground for now....4-8 inch range here, will adjust after all of 12z comes in 8-12” feels right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If the last two or three seasons have been any indication the models should tick SE later today and early tomorrow and the trend back north with the later runs tomorrow into Monday. I seems like there is hardly any consensus yet anyway, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wow that’s an absolute annihilation on the NAM for a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 nam definitely ticked SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That the nam run i was waiting for... lots of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So much better for Maine. Everything more meridional / amplified at all levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Fuk, Its over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 We take the NAM here in CT....That seems to be the perfect angle for this state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Amazing NAM run. Perfect deform band. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That’s even better up here east, mid-levels much better up this way than over N.NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nice blue bomb down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Even if it flips briefly, that’s a hell of a paste job in many areas near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I think Nam shows you need the dynamics too. That’s what I wanted to see. Hopefully the other Global show that thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm sick of you people suckerholing me. I want my money back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Fozz said: Amazing NAM run. Perfect deform band. Wow. The midlevel deformation is still way inland toward VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 where it stays all snow will be pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 For those pointing out the CTRV, the NAM shows it very well at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM snowfall output almost carbon copy of the srefs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The midlevel deformation is still way inland toward VT. That actually looked nice there as it stops and then moves back over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Man we pray that is right even for another tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The midlevel deformation is still way inland toward VT. Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This would work with more to come for some: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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