Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just saying...DIT is not making ish up. 

Yes he is.

Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Is it moderate to heavy snow for 48 hours?

No but we know Kev likes mood flakes lingering around his undies for as long as possible so it still counts even if its flurries. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It most likely won’t happen but to say nothing shows it is also misleading. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes he is.

Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No but we know Kev likes mood flakes lingering around his undies for as long as possible so it still counts even if its flurries. 

Right, but when we are getting to active times there are more novice posters around who will take it seriously...not a big deal for us, but...

[dryslot]

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No it doesn't

Why doesn’t it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Look like its getting captured off of NJ, right now....plenty of time to trend that a little further out towards the cape.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its too warm. 

No way I get like 2" of snow with that antecdent airmass in early Feb.

ICON on SV has limited maps, I cant see thermals only can go by a clown map.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes he is.

Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

 

No I’m not. Anything is on the table with this behemoth . We are allowed to discuss anything we want 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

ICON on SV has limited maps, I cant see thermals only can go by a clown map.

Its bad....even the weenie Weatherbell maps give Boston 1.7", with 4" out to 495. I can confidently say that isn't happening with that track.

[PhineasC]

ICON just told us to get tucked. Hot run, but dumb model, unfortunately. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No I’m not. Anything is on the table with this behemoth . We are allowed to discuss anything we want 

Discuss away the hypothetical plausibility of something that is exceedingly rare in coastal storms, and is supported by no guidance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

ICON just told us to get tucked. Hot run, but dumb model, unfortunately. 

I think there is a decent chance of this getting near the cape....

[PhineasC]

“Days and days of snow” from a coastal is the same kind of mythical event as “the backlash snows will deliver” down in MD at least. Basically never happens but the models love to show it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Discuss away the hypothetical plausibility of something that is exceedingly rare in coastal storm, and is supported by no guidance.

Other than op Euro and Ukie. everything shows 24-48 hours of mod to heavy snow 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

ICON just told us to get tucked. Hot run, but dumb model, unfortunately. 

I don't even usually mention it or have much use for it, But i guess if your going to talk about the GGEM, Throw it in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than op Euro and Ukie. everything shows 24-48 hours of mod to heavy snow 

24 hours...okay.

Post the support for 48 hours of mod to heavy snow...that should be widespread 24"+ relatively evenly distributed over the course of 2 days.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there is a decent chance of this getting near the cape....

Some of these scenarios has the cutoff low around ACK so yeah but i think its way to early to figure that out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This has a chance to be 48 hours of S to S+

Shifting of the goal posts....

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than op Euro and Ukie. everything shows 24-48 hours of mod to heavy snow 

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't even usually mention it or have much use for it, But i guess if your going to talk about the GGEM, Throw it in.

Probably no worse than the GGEM. Just another data point, and every model has its moment where it finds the nut first. 

[TalcottWx]

If it's tucky tucky, that's fine. Phin will host us all in Randolph it's not a big deal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shifting of the goal posts....

 

48 hours is probably the top end , but within the spectrum of real possibilities 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

48 hours is probably the top end , but within the spectrum of real possibilities 

That is fine, but its a stretch if nothing shows that.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

48 hours is probably the top end , but within the spectrum of real possibilities 

A lot of these spectrums seemed pulled out of your rectum.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

A lot of these spectrums seemed pulled out of your rectum.

Rectum Spectrum  

[dryslot]

lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least with a hugger, there is less likely to be a subby hole west of the CF with that deep easterly fetch...may not even need the deformation, which would be way back west.

[The 4 Seasons]

i love this place

[dryslot]

Sounds like some are having cranial rectosis issues.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least with a hugger, there is less likely to be a subby hole west of the CF with that deep easterly fetch...may not even need the deformation, which would be way back west.

Better chance of having something with a hugger then having a low east of georges bank and have no worries about subby zones.