Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Is ORH ever really in a bad spot, i mean, lets be real here

Will doesn’t live there, but he is in a sweet spot.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that looks good there.

Think we mix here or do we go real wet snow for a time? I thought we were pretty good for 6-10 but can’t really afford anymore ticks 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Heavy lotion on thy legs beforehand. 

 

[DomNH]

Congrats ASH on the overnight stuff. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Think we mix here or do we go real wet snow for a time? I thought we were pretty good for 6-10 but can’t really afford anymore ticks 

Might mix given current guidance but I could see some front end paste before any light rain moves in. Still some time to go either way.

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You may struggle in the valley compared to further east or in the Berks. You should still get a solid storm though. 

I think we'll do better than the springfield area but not sure how this area does with a fire hose situation

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like where I am too for getting absolutely firehosed for about 8-10 hours. 

 

Always.

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will doesn’t live there, but he is in a sweet spot.

Next youre gonna tell me santa clause isnt real

[dryslot]

Rest assured, The messenger tics will happen, And that won't be a bad thing as we get close.

[Bostonseminole]

wohoo.. millions of posts this am means good stuff... gonna exercise and comeback for the NAM.. cheers!

[CoastalWx]

I’m not even sure it’s a firehose, or one that we think of. Almost looks like a big area of lift moving north and a 9hr thump. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Those are some high probs even for 6+ but that's 8+ on WPC. 70-90% for all of CT

[HoarfrostHubb]

The area that jacked earlier this week should do well.  Just north of the Pike in eastern ORH county.   
My area looks to be good too

[512high]

Is the density going to be fluff , pasty? And last thing any wind involved at the onset, during or exiting?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not even sure it’s a firehose, or one that we think of. Almost looks like a big area of lift moving north and a 9hr thump. 

Almost looks like a firehose north of a bent-back ML warm front. The fetch from the east on the north side of it is really impressive.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not even sure it’s a firehose, or one that we think of. Almost looks like a big area of lift moving north and a 9hr thump. 

It’s a hose and it’s pointed right at us. Pasting faces

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

No. must be here.

I wouldn't worry about it in our area, most of what we get is from the first part/phase as the storm is taking shape E of the delmarva. By the time it winds up and E MA/RI and possibly E/NE CT is getting pummled with the 2nd part its over for us. From what ive seen on rays map its pretty much in agreement with 6-10 and i have 6-12 but highlighted higher in the NE. As long as youre not expecting a blockbuster 12+ i think well be fine. Really feel like 6 is the basement for our area.

Where are you in Hamden btw, Hamden has its own little climate with hilly sheltered areas on Gaylord Mt. Rd that go up to 650ft to near 0 downtown dixwell ave in "the city"

Oh, also remember any downsloping we get in CT is usually affected in the hartford cty area with big hills to the W and E. when you get closer to the shore that doesnt really become a factor, generally speaking of course .

I have only been here for a couple storms so far, thoughts on exactly how much my "valley" is affected by a storm such as this? It really is a small valley, but temperature wise it has been a crazy micro climate so far with regards to the surrounding area. I am in the "Bent of the River" valley...

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost looks like a firehose north of a bent-back ML warm front. The fetch from the east on the north side of it is really impressive.

 

 

Yeah probably just semantics. April 97, March 2013....probably a few others are sort of what I usually think of. So maybe this is just a tame version of it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a hose and it’s pointed right at us. Pasting faces

Congrats on 8” of firehose pointing at your face. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a hose and it’s pointed right at us. Pasting faces

Spit or swallow?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on 8” of firehose pointing at your face. 

8”?

We can and certainly will take more 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

8”?

We can and certainly will take more 

Are you going with 12+ for the nutmeg?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

8”?

We can and certainly will take more 

Are you suggesting a larger hose pointed at your face?

[CoastalWx]

Bob Stokes is a new member of the forum.

[JKEisMan]

SREFs starting to come in range. Lol.

Despite looking like it was drawn by my daughter with her (broken) crayons, it shows nicely the 6”+ for all of interior SNE, and the areas (in yellow) of potential 12”+. Also shows lower valley totals. 

I usually look at plumes to see the spread but this seem an easier region wide depiction - just wish it was higher res (is that available, if anyone knows?).

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you suggesting a larger hose pointed at your face?

He who rubs the lotion gets the hose again 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Are you suggesting a larger hose pointed at your face?

He enjoys large hoses squirting all that qpf.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JKEisMan said:

SREFs starting to come in range. Lol.

Despite looking like it was drawn by my daughter with her (broken) crayons, it shows nicely the 6”+ for all of interior SNE, and the areas (in yellow) of potential 12”+. Also shows lower valley totals. 

I usually look at plumes to see the spread but this seem an easier region wide depiction - just wish it was higher res (is that available, if anyone knows?).

I haven’t looked at those in years. SREFs tossed hard and fast in any event. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t looked at those in years. SREFs tossed hard and fast in any event. 

Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models. 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM definitely east through 48h compared to 06z.