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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like the H5 trended quite a bit further north on last night's runs.

Guess this is why the mid-level deform axis is in the 'Dacks on some of these.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z500_barbs-2342800.thumb.png.693809c54288c76a0ee653fb32afeae8.png

 

700mb low over head up here.  Probably a bit too far north now, ha.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z700_speed-2332000.thumb.png.60a339b3e9ff636a1c23f5874974b9dd.png

Yea. I pointed it out overnight. Looks like h7 goes right up I91. Wasn’t it just yesterday that you blew the whistle up there?

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like the H5 trended quite a bit further north on last night's runs.

Guess this is why the mid-level deform axis is in the 'Dacks on some of these.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z500_barbs-2342800.thumb.png.693809c54288c76a0ee653fb32afeae8.png

 

700mb low over head up here.  Probably a bit too far north now, ha.

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z700_speed-2332000.thumb.png.60a339b3e9ff636a1c23f5874974b9dd.png

You are not making any friends.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I pointed it out overnight. Looks like h7 goes right up I91. Wasn’t it just yesterday that you blew the whistle up there?

I got weenied by half a dozen for saying there's still plenty of time left, ha.  We have a lot of time left still.  Another 48 hours of models.

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Everyone cried and blew the whistle yesterday. I even said we know how these things go. 

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

To be fair it was harder up there. I was referring more to people in SNE. 4 days out and people are cancelling.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be fair it was harder up there. I was referring more to people in SNE. 4 days out and people are cancelling.

There's still a ton of spread in the 6z EPS ensembles... several with 0 precip up here at all, other's with 1" back in MSS in N.NY.

Uncertainty is still very high IMO.  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

The fact is, we’ve  been seeing 10-day phantoms fir the past month.  Seems like one really long lead up to what will hopefully be a mecs or better.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You look to be in a good spot IMO.

I see the finger of the first max zone in PA/NJ beginning to tickle a little further NE but regardless, 8-12” works. That secondary max in the east has been ramping up too.

I would be festive to get this 10+ for big chunk of the region. 

Be careful though...Ray and Kev want to tie you up in their woodsheds, disrobe you, and go boys gon wild. So watch your back when you leave your house.

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