Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Firehose amped up a bit more.

I'd take my chances with that run.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It must give me like 8:1 ratio lol

yea i think its a bit under done with that map. For CT too. the 0C 850 line barely makes into the SE 1/3 of CT and by that time the precip is mostly shutting off and the bulk of the snow has fallen. Looks like a solid 6-10 that run for most 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd get like 10-14" of paste  that run.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea i think its a bit under done with that map. For CT too. the 0C 850 line barely makes into the SE 1/3 of CT and by that time the precip is mostly shutting off and the bulk of the snow has fallen. Looks like a solid 6-10 that run for most 

Solid improvements here today...let’s see what tomorrow brings(or later today lol)

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Firehose amped up a bit more.

I'd take my chances with that run.

My thoughts exactly.  I like that look here too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

My thoughts exactly.  I like that look here too. 

I would take a foot of paste over 18" of powder, anyway.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Solid improvements here today...let’s see what tomorrow brings(or later today lol)

ha right. we have to work on a first map so im starting on that soon. Did put this out about 40 hours ago and i think the numbers still hold up from the current thinking. Have to update the NE map though.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take a foot of paste over 18" of powder, anyway.

paste/powder isn't really my thing. its funny how everyone seems to have their thing they care about with regards to winter storms. but i would take 6" of snow during the day than 12" at night. That dec storm was the biggest of my life (in that month) and completely forgettable.

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to sell that model run. Its overdoing the warmth IMO....weird. The precip algorithms make sense....they should be getting hardly precip type, issues, over an inch of QPF, yet like 8" of snow...makes zero sense.

Having a 5C difference between 925 and 2m in heavy qpf makes no sense...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Having a 5C difference between 925 and 2m in heavy qpf makes no sense...

Maybe if the precip was light, but that is the height of the hose and its pounding. Only thing I can think of is it just kills the ratios.

[dendrite]

Good run. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe if the precip was light, but that is the height of the hose and its pounding. Only thing I can think of is it just kills the ratios.

I still dont think the ratios would be nowhere near that bad, to bring those amounts down that much.  

[weathafella]

Anyway fun event coming.  Most of us will get some heavy snow and wind even if it rains/sleets some.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Take

[The 4 Seasons]

Huge EPS improvement. Only 2 whiffs vs. about 1/3rd on 12Z for example.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That was a big euro and eps run. Still some bumps and ticks to come though. 

[Ericjcrash]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take

All of NY/NE is happy with the shift, sans James of course. 

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take

Ya we definitely take!

[The 4 Seasons]

1/3/6/12 EPS probs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Actually...euro is so tucked in that h7 goes from south to north up I91, with a dryslot into ENE. 

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya we definitely take!

Looks very good, but I feel like here in Ct spoils see more than what is modeled. Most just to the south and North get a good 1'. Or temps should be fine.  Let's see what tomorrow brings as far as that goes ( minor adjustments, but still happy with the run ). G'night all

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Actually...euro is so tucked in that h7 goes from south to north up I91, with a dryslot into ENE. 

Doesn't really matter...hose is gone, anyway...

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Looks very good, but I feel like here in Ct spoils see more than what is modeled. Most just to the south and North get a good 1'. Or temps should be fine.  Let's see what tomorrow brings as far as that goes ( minor adjustments, but still happy with the run ). G'night all

Yea, much safer run for you guys out there...with still the possible exception of CTRV. Not only downslope from easterly fetch, but also maybe subby due to deformation just west. I could see one max with lower fronto east, then another way out in Berks or e NYS into VT w mid level fronto.

Still think there is a reasonable shot it wnt be this far west, though. Watch for this amped trend to steady and potentially even reverse this wknd.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is way tucked. Congrats CNE on that. Maybe we congrats them after all.

[RDRY]

The surface low moves like 50 miles in 24 hours on the 12k. Insane.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is way tucked. Congrats CNE on that. Maybe we congrats them after all.

You don't have to twist my arm to take this run....cut this by at least a third...

[40/70 Benchmark]

This may finally by my long awaited event that I take scooter to the shed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

PF stalking, waiting in the bushes:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro, NAM and GEM all in very good agreement on precip type issues out to 495....right now, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

PF stalking, waiting in the bushes:

I'm not that worried about it....trend will probably peak today.