Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEPS shifted west a bit...nothing dramatic.

[weathafella]

OT but how often does one encounter snow cover wire to wire Chicago tot Boston?  Deepest north of Chicago, where we stayed last night in Erie, and visiting my mother’s grave near the lake north of Rochester-where it snowed hard in bands.

I’m pretty optimistic about the incoming.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Shit streak is lifting out faster....scooter wiped....stand by...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully it comes in with better inflow...just a NW track would suck....we'll see.

[NeonPeon]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm glad we are getting this arctic plunge, even though it departs ahead of the event....flushing out that marine layer with an arctic plunger is never a bad thing on the eve of a big easterly firehose.

If it rains, I'll be able to look back fondly on how bitterly cold it was?

[weathafella]

Whoever can stay all snow should be buried with 12+

[PhineasC]

Great run for NH. 

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, weathafella said:

Whoever can stay all snow should be buried with 12+

My next door neighbor?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would trade the deformation for a stronger hose....just ram the ocean in here, and I'll take my chances here near the NH border in early FEB.

Yeah, I would be quite happy with you getting 12"+ and me 8' but I need deform at my lat/long to make that happen.   I think this one is going to be be big away from the coast, unless we see it shredding or blows it's load to far south and doesn't recover in time. 

I'm starting to lean hugger despite my skepticism earlier today and wished I had held my hugger position from a day or two ago.

[weathafella]

Maine gets the jack.

[PhineasC]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I would be quite happy with you getting 12"+ and me 8' but I need deform at my lat/long to make that happen.   I think this one is going to be be big away from the coast, unless we see it shredding or blows it's load to far south and doesn't recover in time. 

I'm starting to lean hugger despite my skepticism earlier today and wished I had held my hugger position from a day or two ago.

It’s headed that way. Starting to look more like a CNE/NNE storm if trends continue. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, PhineasC said:

It’s headed that way. Starting to look more like a CNE/NNE storm if trends continue. 

We'll see tomorrow but big tug NW on some models in terms of heavy frozen precip.

[PhineasC]

Best Euro run in days here. Major NW move. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Best Euro run in days here. Major NW move. 

Oh' haven't looked yet.  That's good news for some of us...

[FRWEATHA]

Someone can correct me but that Euro run seemed to be good to okay here to Phin and of course the jack points in between.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, FRWEATHA said:

Someone can correct me but that Euro run seemed to be good to okay here to Phin and of course the jack points in between.

Only looked at low res but seemed to track from NJ coast over ACK?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Warmest point during the height.....precip is pounding here, so -2C @ 925 may be good enough.....

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warmest point during the height.....precip is pounding here, so -2C @ 925 may be good enough.....

 

Going to be some good ratios inland.  QPF queens need not fret.  I could certainly get shadowed but I'll take my chances.

[The 4 Seasons]

Another solid tick of improvement all around for CT. 

[The 4 Seasons]

shame we cant see soundings for free anymore on Pivotal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Run was worse than I thought....with those precip rates, I would have though -2 to -3C 925 would have been good enough.

IDK, I'll take my chances with that, I think we'd do better than that. I think it overdoing the warmth.

[RDRY]

That damn dry slot just roars through. Need a high to the northwest to hold that band in place. It's a big void up there.

[FRWEATHA]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Run was worse than I though....with those precip rates, I would have though -2 to -3C 925 would have been good enough.

 

I guess why I thought okay. It looked uniform here to Boston an CT. With a jack north.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Run was worse than I thought....with those precip rates, I would have though -2 to -3C 925 would have been good enough.

IDK, I'll take my chances with that, I think we'd do better than that. I think it overdoing the warmth.

Definitely overdoing the warmth..I’m close to -3 at 925 here, I think that is snow here imo. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

That damn dry slot just roars through. Need a high to the northwest to hold that band in place. It's a big void up there.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

[The 4 Seasons]

weird how the just used a yellow gradient from .5 to 2. thats a wide range, everything just looks yellow lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Definitely overdoing the warmth..I’m close to -3 at 925 here, I think that is snow here imo. 

I'm going to sell that model run. Its overdoing the warmth IMO....weird. The precip algorithms make sense....they should be getting hardly precip type, issues, over an inch of QPF, yet like 8" of snow...makes zero sense.

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

WMA

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

weird how the just used a yellow gradient from .5 to 2. thats a wide range, everything just looks yellow lol

It must give me like 8:1 ratio lol