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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
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4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

GFS gets the 850 0°C line up to Plymouth and the 925 line almost up to Boston.  Yet the Para doesn't get the 850 line any further than the outer cape, and the 925 line just up to the canal.  Makes a big difference in why SE MA jacks on the Para.

The v16 did a lot better on the 12/17 event overall than the retiring GFS, but the retiring GFS had us down here quite a bit colder and busted. Reversed this time with these-old GFS has the crappy thermals and the v16 annihilates us and most of you guys too. . 

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21 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

canadian is on roids for eastern zones, wonder if I rain

Nah ... suspect models are in the initial stage of formulating a higher impact consensus ... likely to see a notch higher at similar thermal fields coming from other guidance moving forward. Whack interpretations… The GFS is a vast improvement over prior runs and is falling into said line with trend - some people need to take a break. Lol
 

In fact it’s even possible that a deeper surface pressure south of Long Island, quicker, might trigger more of a northerly component to the wind and cold at that ... and that locks a coastal front into Southeastern mass and it will not move

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah ... suspect models are in the initial stage of formulating a higher impact consensus ... likely to see a notch higher at similar thermal fields coming from other guidance moving forward. Whack interpretations… The GFS is a vast improvement over prior runs and is falling into said line with trend - some people need to take a break. Lol
 

In fact it’s even possible that a deeper surface pressure south of Long Island, quicker, might trigger more of a northerly component to the wind and cold at that ... and that locks a coastal front into Southeastern mass and it will not move

I don't think anyone was worried about the GFS....it was just a strange run.

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Still don't like how there's a heavier precip signal down in the Mid-Atlantic up into New York City and then a secondary across eastern MA.  Seems like interior Connecticut into Western /Central Mass is prone to more dry slotting, or sort of in- between two areas of greater forcing, combine that with the downsloping wind into the valley and I'm concerned this could be a rather modest event around these parts.  Hopefully I'm wrong and the WCB really pounds and we get some consistent decent banding after that and not a shredded mess.  

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12 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

If a blizzard happens but gets wiped out 72 hours later did it it really happen?  That’s where we’re at folks.....this asshat season couldn’t even finish good.....total pass 

The panel say yes.  If a blizzard happens, it actually really happened.  Probably be some pictures, obs and videos to prove it.

 

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