Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ice1972]

It’s all washed away though later.....pass....

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, dryslot said:

Hence my comment earlier about the folks east, You have to be careful what you wish for.

what are people wishing for?

[ORH_wxman]

Elongated h5 big time. Storm is mostly 12 hours for the goods. 

[weatherwiz]

oof that is a mean dry punch that materializes on the GFS...looks like it's the culprit into quickly shutting down the band? Thought it was occlusion but on second look don't think it's occlusion 

[dryslot]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

what are people wishing for?

Max snow in there backyards?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

what are people wishing for?

I’m wishing for 36”.  I expect nothing.  Reality will be somewhere in between.

[Bostonseminole]

nice pounding for this area, 12-15 might do better if I'm the good sign of the CF

[dryslot]

The "stall" has gone, More in line with a typical system.

[CoastalWx]

Front ended for 6-12 hrs 

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, dryslot said:

Max snow in there backyards?

I guess most folks know their climo.. storm is probably in a good spot for me.. any tuckier and I might mix

[Typhoon Tip]

This ICON run may not happen but it sure is captivating ...

that’s maybe the best run I’ve seen .. close tie with perhaps the Euro run from 12z yesterday was that ?

anyway ... discounting those unlikely / over processed gapping west of ORH that’s a high end warning / border blizzard. Slow movement of obscene frontogen proficiency across the region likely is 4/6 hours of S+ with routine wind gust 35 ... splitting hairs in 24-26 F shattering 15::1

i realize it’s a depiction from a less popular model but that piece is relating in now and this happens - have a feeling the Euro May up the ante

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Slowly but surely “days and days” will be shaved down to 12 hours, come hell or high water 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Front ended for 6-12 hrs 

Yeah we want the euro solution. This would be fine...it’s actually a pretty sweet look for about 8-10 hours...but prob like 8-12” in a big front end thump and then dryslotted with shredded snow showers for another 12-18 hours. 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

I guess most folks know their climo.. storm is probably in a good spot for me.. any tuckier and I might mix

Some just look at maps and assume, Much different with this one, A track further west is not the best option this time around.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The "stall" has gone, More in line with a typical system.

Almost always happens....like I said, the captures, stalls, crawls in the medium and longer range end up as thumps in the shorter range.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Front ended for 6-12 hrs 

And keeps down mega accumulations too, Ceiling may be 12" with a couple weenie spots with a few more.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost always happens....like I said, the captures, stalls, crawls in the medium and longer range end up as thumps in the shorter range.

You have been on this, Its not the season for it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Almost always happens....like I said, the captures, stalls, crawls in the medium and longer range end up as thumps in the shorter range.

This has looked more like a WCB thump for a day now.

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFSv16 looking good.

[Bostonseminole]

you guys bang the GFS, I'm banging the canadian

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This has looked more like a WCB thump for a day now.

There is a reason why stronger la nina climo isn't exactly littered with high-end east coast events....and the few that do exist are in the first half.

Hey, this beats the hell out of January.

[Bostonseminole]

canadian is on roids for eastern zones, wonder if I rain

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

canadian is on roids for eastern zones, wonder if I rain

That 988mb low SW of ACK is not good, Congrats PF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

That 988mb low SW of ACK is not good, Congrats PF.

SWFE lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS looks terrible to me...WTF

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS looks terrible to me...WTF

yeah, that's not right

[78Blizzard]

GFS gets the 850 0°C line up to Plymouth and the 925 line almost up to Boston.  Yet the Para doesn't get the 850 line any further than the outer cape, and the 925 line just up to the canal.  Makes a big difference in why SE MA jacks on the Para.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS looks terrible to me...WTF

It’s brutal with thermals.  I’m finding v16 much more realistic compared to the Euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, that's not right

Not sure what happened....must have been a glitch.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

at least it Crushes NYC and Jersey ....