Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Spanks45]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

1.25 to 2 inches qpf ain't a blockbuster? You guys 

Spoiled...I always thought 12+ was a blockbuster

[78Blizzard]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

1.25 to 2 inches qpf ain't a blockbuster? You guys 

Depends on location and what part of that falls as snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you guys 

Steve, 1'+ is not a blockbuster around here....wouldn't sniff top 20. 20" is when we can talk....I'm not saying it isn't a memorable, great event...but blockbuster is upper tier, historic.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1.25 to 2 inches qpf ain't a blockbuster? You guys 

Its a high bar ya know, Always

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Spoiled...I always thought 12+ was a blockbuster

Well...exactly....if you have a ton of 12"+ events, how anomalous is it?

[78Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ICON has juiced over NE MA for like several consecutive runs.

I think the ICON is about as accurate as the old DGEX, lol.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you guys 

Widespread 18-24” would be a blockbuster.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The arctic airmass vacates.....love how the other system blocks and delays the storm, but the arctic air just pulls a Houdini and vanishes right through everything.

yeah go figure...not this first time this has happened either. I was actually shocked when I started taking a deeper dive into the thermals near the sfc...my initial guess from everything was this would be a pretty cold storm but not the case. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I think the ICON is about as accurate as the old DGEX, lol.

Right, but EURO agrees.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Widespread 18-24” would be a blockbuster.

Exactly.

12" is a major storm...memorable. But not upper tier...all I am saying.

[Spanks45]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well...exactly....if you have a ton of 12"+ events, how anomalous is it?

I have 2, 12 inch events since 2014....so definitely a bit more of a blockbuster here

[Typhoon Tip]

So the ICON arrived with stronger jet mechanics feeding in and we see a definitively more consolidated sfc low/further west with a higher impact lashing of snow and windy/storm complexion on this 00z run. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

I have 2, 12 inch events since 2014....so definitely a bit more of a blockbuster here

Oh, sure....obviously depends where you live.

I agree.

[weatherwiz]

Well too Steve's point here...if we are talking 1.25'' to 2'' QPF (assuming ratios will be pretty decent) we're probably talking in the ballpark of 18-24''. (Obviously assuming the majority of that, if not, all is snow.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Widespread 18-24” would be a blockbuster.

For a starter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

And where are we seeing 2” show up on modeling right now.  I’m seeing 1 to 1.5” across most and it’s limited to eastern areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Well too Steve's point here...if we are talking 1.25'' to 2'' QPF (assuming ratios will be pretty decent) we're probably talking in the ballpark of 18-24''. (Obviously assuming the majority of that, if not, all is snow.

Yes, if we see that widespread, then tip of the cap....but I have reservations on that, aside from a band.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And where are we seeing 2” show up on modeling right now.  I’m seeing 1 to 1.5” across most and it’s limited to eastern areas.

There is none, Yet.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, if we see that widespread, then tip of the cap....but I reservations on that, aside from a band.

Perhaps not likely, but can't totally discount that just yet. 

[dryslot]

So much time left for this one.

[dryslot]

00z GFS is tucked, WOR folks will like.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And where are we seeing 2” show up on modeling right now.  I’m seeing 1 to 1.5” across most and it’s limited to eastern areas.

Ok 1.9 

[Bostonseminole]

well this gfs run might have more QPF for the queens

[Spaizzo]

So is timing still Sunday night? I’m in ct

[PhineasC]

SE Mass reservoirs and lakes getting topped off. Take that, Stein!

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

So much time left for this one.

 

Just now, dryslot said:

00z GFS is tucked, WOR folks will like.

All about that backside energy.  If it trends stronger, we’ll see some tuckier solutions that may drive warmer air into eastern areas and push the ml goodies further inland.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs keeps improving. Still sloppy but a sloppy model does sloppy deeds.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

SE Mass reservoirs and lakes getting topped off. Take that, Stein!

GFS is catching up late as usual.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

All about that backside energy.  If it trends stronger, we’ll see some tuckier solutions that may drive warmer air into eastern areas and push the ml goodies further inland.

Hence my comment earlier about the folks east, You have to be careful what you wish for with the trend of models being NW.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Spaizzo said:

So is timing still Sunday night? I’m in ct

probably moreso Monday...maybe first flakes fly early Mon AM.