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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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31 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I hope the low rides directly over SE Mass and deep into the Gulf of Maine where it stalls for 2 days.

SE Mass could use the rain. Reservoirs and lakes are still low, right?

once the snow covering the mulch beds melt away, the reservoirs should fill right up.

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This looks nearly as good as can be at this point, but my guard will be up for the rug to be pulled up until I breech the pack with yard stick in hand. I know why the usual fast flow of nina that often plagues our chances for big events may not be applicable in this case, but I'll still believe it when I see it. No issue with a 6-12", 8-14" type deal, but this ceiling potential is always hard to attain, anyway, NVM during a mod la nina.

Yeah... despite my own arty rhetoric at times ( ..heh ) ...I'm still of the school for a long-duration moderate snow, that by virtue of said duration, ...attains a more robust if not major impact from interior mid Atlantic up to Maine as a base-line risk assessment.  It's got modulation room for more and less.. 

K.U.... ?  Yup

Historic ?    Heh, I'd shelve that for now

I just elaborated my various ensemble mean hot-takes ( lol. ...) but, I also modulate aspects based upon experience and book-smarts combined... I do think this can evolve- not impossible in other words - toward a historic deal, but there's just as much possibility for something durational/less...etc... 

I believe a substantive system is higher likelihood.   And we eye-candy runs for muse until D4.5 ... The other aspect to bring up is that... the EPS ( for example...) and the GEFs are 2-day onslaughts...so, the front side of this may come into the visible range of improving certitude before the ass end of it...

One thing I am noticing that is a interesting, and is true in both the GEFs and EPS ( pretty remarkable micro-management at this range frankly, too - ) is that they have a kind 'impact pulsation' episodes in two - owing to the fact that there is 2ndary mid troposphere wave mechanics bottoming out and helping back-develop the systemic envelopment of the cyclone - noisy fascination -

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, John...those 36-48 hr depictions never work out. The bulk of this impact should be within a 24 hr period, and anything beyond is nuisance variety.

Heh... you know ?  - I mean this isn't Iceland, nor is this an Icelandic Low redux

hahaha

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