Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Elongation of the ML will be huge for eastern areas as it will help mitigate any warming.  NAM is a huge hit.

It also limits the ceiling for other spots, which obviously you don't care about.

I'd like to tighten it up....

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Elongation of the ML will be huge for eastern areas as it will help mitigate any warming.  NAM is a huge hit.

Big.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

My point is the trend is NW, And Nam continues it since 18z at 00z, Nothing more, And Nam at the end of its range, Wouldn't be writing a forecast based on it.

You seemed to imply it was bad for eastern areas....not at this point IMO. We all needed things to trend back.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How?

They will have “remote learning days”.  
I loved getting the word that my job would just stop for a day or two so I could enjoy the storm

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also limits the ceiling for other spots, which obviously you don't care about.

I'd like to tighten it up....

For sure. If I want were to want it to tighten up, I’d want it to be further E.  

[dryslot]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Eastern areas are just fine with it.

That's why i said "May" Only the cape this run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

They will have “remote learning days”.  
I loved getting the word that my job would just stop for a day or two so I could enjoy the storm

Gotcha.

Yea, that blows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's why i said "May" Only the cape this run.

Okay, gotcha.

[weatherwiz]

The NAM seems a little more "thumpy" though? Still looks with the quick occlusion b/c the inflow shuts off pretty quickly. Not a total fan of how quickly that fronto lifts north...really was hoping it would pivot. But...if it can sit and slowly rot somewhere...someone pulls a 16-18

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seemed to imply it was bad for eastern areas....not at this point IMO. We all needed things to trend back.

I didn’t read it as an implication about anywhere else.  He just said what it showed.  Eastern areas are a lock for big snows from the NNE standpoint.  A NW run is not bad at all when it was threatening full on suppression depression for most of the forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAM seems a little more "thumpy" though? Still looks with the quick occlusion b/c the inflow shuts off pretty quickly. Not a total fan of how quickly that fronto lifts north...really was hoping it would pivot. But...if it can sit and slowly rot somewhere...someone pulls a 16-18

Yea, I wasn't crazy about that, either.

NAM is usually pretty good with that, as well as mid level warming.

[78Blizzard]

You could see the subtle differences at h5 on the 0z NAM from 18z that compared favorably with the 12z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I didn’t read it as an implication about anywhere else.  He just said what it showed.  Eastern areas are a lock from the NNE standpoint.  West is not bad at all when it was threatening full on suppression depression for the forum.

He just said eastern areas may not like it...no specification. But he elaborated that he meant CC, which I get.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Gotta say, that’s a pretty sweet look for a lotta folks.  Even at the end of the run, the interior is getting it good.

[PhineasC]

Northern NH is back in the game on these latest runs. 

[met_fan]

One of the few perks of my job seems to have been permanently lost...

Our district did one remote learning day and then quickly declared any future snow day would be a traditional snow day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gotta say, that’s a pretty sweet look for a lotta folks.  Even at the end of the run, the interior is getting it good.

Its a nice thump, but not much sign of the "crawling, stalling, etc"....looks like a pretty ordinary slug that sweeps through.

[dryslot]

How does one not like this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

How does one not like this.

I like it....I'd love it if the ULL didn't stretch from Raliegh, NC to MHT.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a nice thump, but not much sign of the "crawling, stalling, etc"....looks like a pretty ordinary slug that sweeps through.

It’s gonna be all about the initial thump here, and maybe we get some CCB love if the low redevelops as it scoots East.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gotta say, that’s a pretty sweet look for a lotta folks.  Even at the end of the run, the interior is getting it good.

About as widespread a decent look as you can get actually.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like it....I'd love it if the ULL didn't stretch from Raliegh, NC to MHT.

Not thinking were going to see it here with this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s gonna be all about the initial thump here, and maybe we get some CCB love if the low redevelops as it scoots East.

You see it time and time again....everyone talks up how slowly it moves...capture this, and cut off that....crawl over there....then as we get near the event...."nice thump".....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not thinking were going to see it here with this.

Agreed....the "no blockbuster in the second half of a mod or strong nina" rule looks to stand.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed....the "no blockbuster in the second half of a mod or strong nina" rule looks to stand.

I guess we can live with it..........

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I guess we can live with it..........

I was saying earlier...this is akin to one of the post ERC hurricanes.....as it approaches, the cat 4-5 winds go "poof", as the circulation becomes large and ragged, and the weenies start to focus on the areal coverage of surge and cat 1-2 winds.

Same thing here.....

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

They will have “remote learning days”.  
I loved getting the word that my job would just stop for a day or two so I could enjoy the storm

A little snip snip with the internet lines? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not thinking were going to see it here with this.

Nope.  Shitstreak halts this bowling ball in its tracks and the main s/w than has to undercut it while the backside energy has no where to go but carve itself underneath the main s/w, which than elongates the entire system.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nope.  Shitstreak halts this bowling ball in its tracks and the main s/w than has to undercut it while the backside energy has no where to go but carve itself underneath the main s/w, which than elongates the entire system.

Yeah, At this point, Just keep it close by, Obviously we would like this to close and stack east of here, But not going to happen so we play the hand that's dealt, Still a nice event for many in this crap winter.

[met_fan]

Can always do remote learning for sure.  The public has been trained.  Use technology on bad weather days.  Didn’t have that option or infrastructure in the past for sure.

It’s more complicated than it seems...is every school going to continue to buy computers for every student when the federal government isn’t picking up the tab? And while it’s no difference to have a remote learning day when you are already fully remote, for schools that are in person, having to suddenly go remote on a couple hours notice after a 5:30 am phone call, it a huge pain in the ass.