Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro coming a bit west with the goods through 78.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow nice looking euro run. Getting more peeps in on the goods. 

[dryslot]

Nice Neg tilt on the trough.

[Damage In Tolland]

How does e inflow and H5 anomalies look? 

[Bostonseminole]

euro is sweet

[Bostonseminole]

kev, what's your thinking for this area?

[dryslot]

Only goes out to hr 90, Needed a few more panels for up here but it was looking real good.

[WeatherX]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How does e inflow and H5 anomalies look? 

Jacktastic at 87 hours

[SouthCoastMA]

Meh. I'm out

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice Neg tilt on the trough.

Geez I guess.

[Spanks45]

Just now, dryslot said:

Only goes out to hr 90, Needed a few more panels for up here but it was looking real good.

Great looking run, looks like some goodies further northwest than the maps have the qpf at as well....region wide 8-12 inch storm there

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Jacktastic at 87 hours

That’s a crushing blow all of CT

[Spanks45]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a crushing blow all of CT

its coming....just can't have any pushes SE again, the confluence kinda ran off, even early on in the run. Hopefully it is right. If it continues to push north, that zone down in Jersey might push further north like the Icon had.

[78Blizzard]

That Euro solution looks to be a warmer one for many S of Boston compared to the 12z.  Any thermals available on the 18z run?

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Only goes out to hr 90, Needed a few more panels for up here but it was looking real good.

Good sign to see the better snow more inland and mixing at the coast. 

[RDRY]

7 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Jacktastic at 87 hours

Jeez. With that look, hard to see central NE getting skunked.

[Henry's Weather]

Maybe I'm just extremely biased, but I don't understand why QPF isn't pushing 2 inches with a track that slow and such a dynamic system. Is it because it vertically stacks too early?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Good sign to see the better snow more inland and mixing at the coast. 

Its coming

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RDRY said:

Jeez. With that look, hard to see central NE getting skunked.

Yes.. toss all those qpf and silly snow maps. Big amounts way west 

[WeatherX]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a crushing blow all of CT

Starting to look that way. LaLa lock it in tomorrow on the 12z runs if the same?  

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

its coming....just can't have any pushes SE again, the confluence kinda ran off, even early on in the run. Hopefully it is right. If it continues to push north, that zone down in Jersey might push further north like the Icon had.

That's the same spot NAM was crushing in Jersey. That's where the best fronto was. Come on, baby. Bring it north. Come to Butthead.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Man I am just going to expect rain and 45 F temperatures!  Good luck everyone west of I-95

[dryslot]

Extreme SE MA and the cape have some BL issues with H85 and H92

[FRWEATHA]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Only goes out to hr 90, Needed a few more panels for up here but it was looking real good.

Would us far eastern  areas make up some ground after this time?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, FRWEATHA said:

Would us far eastern  areas make up some ground after this time?

I think so, There was still some precip left to be had after hr 90

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Man I am just going to expect rain and 45 F temperatures!  Good luck everyone west of I-95

You get NORLUNed?

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Maybe I'm just extremely biased, but I don't understand why QPF isn't pushing 2 inches with a track that slow and such a dynamic system. Is it because it vertically stacks too early?

It’s not a very rapidly deepening system when you look aloft. It’s strengthening but not bombing out. So that sort of limits the magnitude of the lift. 

However, I’ve noticed that models will sometimes under forecast QPF in favored areas on deep layer easterly flow so we'll have to see how it looks as we get closer. 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a very rapidly deepening system when you look aloft. It’s strengthening but not bombing out. So that sort of limits the magnitude of the lift. 

However, I’ve noticed that models will sometimes under forecast QPF in favored areas on deep layer easterly flow so we'll have to see how it looks as we get closer. 

Any way for this to change as we approach, or is this just the type of system we'll have?

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a very rapidly deepening system when you look aloft. It’s strengthening but not bombing out. So that sort of limits the magnitude of the lift. 

However, I’ve noticed that models will sometimes under forecast QPF in favored areas on deep layer easterly flow so we'll have to see how it looks as we get closer. 

Winter Hill for sure, ha ha.  Without joking though, it has been interesting to see that there hasn't been a distinct ORH Hills enhancement look but more of a general speed convergence enhancement look as the moisture comes ashore in E.Mass.  Like land friction or something causing a pile up of air as it comes off the ocean... the QPF plots almost look like a tide coming inland and then decreasing as you move away from the coast.

All the global models have that look.  Just strong convergence as the air piles up on land like a massive traffic jam, and that strong easterly flow has no where to go but upwards as there's a speed convergence going on in the low levels.  Probably also lifting over cold air at the SFC too.  Just a great set up in EMA.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Timing wise with regard to winding down, is it looking like Tuesday morning or is this an all day Tuesday deal (assuming no whiff)?  TIA