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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

ohhhh, is that what x mB frontogenesis actually is? Air temp differential? that makes sense

frontogenesis is essentially just the increase of horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the increase, the stronger the frontogenesis. The stronger the fronto, the stronger the upward vertical motion. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Do you think this recent cold blast could actually work to keep the baroclinic zone farther south or depending on how the re-development occurs/when would that work to bump it back north a bit? 

I still think the band is being way underdone...hell, there is even a strong signal for dynamic cooling aloft...that would further intensify the temp. gradient. Hell, look at 925...as warm as +8 to +9 C inflow with 925's actually cooling through the day down to around -9 to -10 in central New England. This is one helluva banding signal. 

The band in the NAM is collocated with best frotogenic banding in the 700 mb... and that model - I have noticed - tends to try and shut things down on the W-N side of that/those elevated instability axis in most systems..

That, and, for some reason the NAM is oblong -ing the 700 mb trough circumvallate - making it sort of ovoid and that is limiting any lift for that reason, over the NW arc to. Winds are almost precisely paralleling the isohypses = maxed and stacked... This run thus tries to claim west of ORH is deep in the nor'easter vortex circulation with sunshine :) weeeee 

typical NAM overly detailed over sophisticated hyper processing run wild. 

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

frontogenesis is essentially just the increase of horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the increase, the stronger the frontogenesis. The stronger the fronto, the stronger the upward vertical motion. 

so the derivative of temperature differential? I'll bet it's a good proxy for lift then?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The band in the NAM is collocated with best frotogenic banding in the 700 mb... and that model - I have noticed - tends to try and shut things down on the W-N side of that elevated instability axis in most systems...

That, and, for some reason the NAM is oblong -ing the 700 mb trough circumvallate - making it sort of ovoid and that is limiting any lift for that reason, over the NW arc. This run tries to bring everyone west of ORH into the vortex circulation with sunshine :) 

typical NAM overly detailed over sophisticated hyper processing run wild. 

Precisely why QPF hugging usually leads to one getting into trouble :lol: 

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

so the derivative of temperature differential? I'll bet it's a good proxy for lift then?

very good indicator for lift and banding 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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One other thing about the Euro - ...

I suspect that snows pretty hard from mid way through D4 into early D5 ..as an anomalously west proficiency. The surface low in fact may even be escaping too quickly in that single day drift eastward on that 12z run - certainly within the realm of modeling noise for it to hold back west 50 naut miles considering the 18 hour anchor point of the 500 mb height core... Which, is why I think it snows possibly hard in there - and may beat out present QPF products if using this model verbatim.  Heights closed over central and eastern SNE drop an additional 10 to 12 dm in that 18 hours ending D4 into mid D5 and that will probably have some elevated frontogenic banding/meso enhancing amid a general level 2 very slow pulsing rad rot within that column ...

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DomNH

DomNH

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Have you read any Mets posts? Rays not a met . All of them have taken great pains to explain why the highest amounts will be west of models. 

Don't need to slave away at calculus and physics to be a good forecaster lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Either they're priming the public for the inevitable increase, or thsy aren't too enthused with the slow rate of strengthening and occlusion.

It’s also 3+ days out still for much of the region. It’s always easier increase as you get closer than back off from a public reaction standpoint. 

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It’s also 3+ days out still for much of the region. It’s always easier increase as you get closer than back off from a public reaction standpoint. 

 

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

I'd be pretty surprised if we end up needing a range > 8-14''.

so the two different schools of thought right here?

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

 

so the two different schools of thought right here?

Not necessarily. Will is right that it's easier to ramp up than ramp down, but I don't see this as a setup that's going to be producing totals that you'd really need to ramp up from 8-14''. Ok, maybe if things break perfect you throw eastern areas in a 10-16'' zone, but I think this one has a ceiling somewhere around that 14'' number. 

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wish I had applied myself. I started out wanting to be a met. Math and me do not mix.    Best English student and worst math 

Just bring the big ratings and don’t embarrass the station And you can be on tv . We can hang up a degree from SNEWX school of weenieology , customize a  weenie mobile that launches hot dogs , communities will eat it up ..milfs will dig it 

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