weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: ohhhh, is that what x mB frontogenesis actually is? Air temp differential? that makes sense frontogenesis is essentially just the increase of horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the increase, the stronger the frontogenesis. The stronger the fronto, the stronger the upward vertical motion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Do you think this recent cold blast could actually work to keep the baroclinic zone farther south or depending on how the re-development occurs/when would that work to bump it back north a bit? I still think the band is being way underdone...hell, there is even a strong signal for dynamic cooling aloft...that would further intensify the temp. gradient. Hell, look at 925...as warm as +8 to +9 C inflow with 925's actually cooling through the day down to around -9 to -10 in central New England. This is one helluva banding signal. The band in the NAM is collocated with best frotogenic banding in the 700 mb... and that model - I have noticed - tends to try and shut things down on the W-N side of that/those elevated instability axis in most systems.. That, and, for some reason the NAM is oblong -ing the 700 mb trough circumvallate - making it sort of ovoid and that is limiting any lift for that reason, over the NW arc to. Winds are almost precisely paralleling the isohypses = maxed and stacked... This run thus tries to claim west of ORH is deep in the nor'easter vortex circulation with sunshine weeeee typical NAM overly detailed over sophisticated hyper processing run wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: frontogenesis is essentially just the increase of horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the increase, the stronger the frontogenesis. The stronger the fronto, the stronger the upward vertical motion. so the derivative of temperature differential? I'll bet it's a good proxy for lift then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: The band in the NAM is collocated with best frotogenic banding in the 700 mb... and that model - I have noticed - tends to try and shut things down on the W-N side of that elevated instability axis in most systems... That, and, for some reason the NAM is oblong -ing the 700 mb trough circumvallate - making it sort of ovoid and that is limiting any lift for that reason, over the NW arc. This run tries to bring everyone west of ORH into the vortex circulation with sunshine typical NAM overly detailed over sophisticated hyper processing run wild. Precisely why QPF hugging usually leads to one getting into trouble Just now, Henry's Weather said: so the derivative of temperature differential? I'll bet it's a good proxy for lift then? very good indicator for lift and banding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 One other thing about the Euro - ... I suspect that snows pretty hard from mid way through D4 into early D5 ..as an anomalously west proficiency. The surface low in fact may even be escaping too quickly in that single day drift eastward on that 12z run - certainly within the realm of modeling noise for it to hold back west 50 naut miles considering the 18 hour anchor point of the 500 mb height core... Which, is why I think it snows possibly hard in there - and may beat out present QPF products if using this model verbatim. Heights closed over central and eastern SNE drop an additional 10 to 12 dm in that 18 hours ending D4 into mid D5 and that will probably have some elevated frontogenic banding/meso enhancing amid a general level 2 very slow pulsing rad rot within that column ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have you read any Mets posts? Rays not a met . All of them have taken great pains to explain why the highest amounts will be west of models. Don't need to slave away at calculus and physics to be a good forecaster lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Some Boston TV maps fwiw 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Every guidance has a pa to nj jack with a secondary max in ema. Gotta believe it to a certain extent, for now. We pray for that last minute north trend. Get that good fronto up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Those look similar to Ray’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Some Boston TV maps fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Either they're priming the public for the inevitable increase, or thsy aren't too enthused with the slow rate of strengthening and occlusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Either they're priming the public for the inevitable increase, or thsy aren't too enthused with the slow rate of strengthening and occlusion. I'd be pretty surprised if we end up needing a range > 8-14''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Either they're priming the public for the inevitable increase, or thsy aren't too enthused with the slow rate of strengthening and occlusion. It’s also 3+ days out still for much of the region. It’s always easier increase as you get closer than back off from a public reaction standpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, DomNH said: Don't need to slave away at calculus and physics to be a good forecaster lol. I wish I had applied myself. I started out wanting to be a met. Math and me do not mix. Best English student and worst math 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, DomNH said: I'd be pretty surprised if we end up needing a range > 8-14''. But but but constructive interference!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It’s also 3+ days out still for much of the region. It’s always easier increase as you get closer than back off from a public reaction standpoint. 1 minute ago, DomNH said: I'd be pretty surprised if we end up needing a range > 8-14''. so the two different schools of thought right here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WCVB had a map with a large swath of 10-14” but I can’t find it online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Henry's Weather said: so the two different schools of thought right here? Not necessarily. Will is right that it's easier to ramp up than ramp down, but I don't see this as a setup that's going to be producing totals that you'd really need to ramp up from 8-14''. Ok, maybe if things break perfect you throw eastern areas in a 10-16'' zone, but I think this one has a ceiling somewhere around that 14'' number. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have you read any Mets posts? Rays not a met . All of them have taken great pains to explain why the highest amounts will be west of models. That’s awesome. Are you jacked up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wish I had applied myself. I started out wanting to be a met. Math and me do not mix. Best English student and worst math Just bring the big ratings and don’t embarrass the station And you can be on tv . We can hang up a degree from SNEWX school of weenieology , customize a weenie mobile that launches hot dogs , communities will eat it up ..milfs will dig it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s awesome. Are you jacked up? I’m excited for a snowstorm. I hope everyone gets what they want 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wish I had applied myself. I started out wanting to be a met. Math and me do not mix. Best English student and worst math You would have been a perfect newage met with many followers and subscribers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m excited for a snowstorm. I hope everyone gets what they want Yup. I’m in it too...just a little reserved out west, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, DomNH said: I'd be pretty surprised if we end up needing a range > 8-14''. Yes.... it’s hard to get over a foot for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. I’m in it too...just a little reserved out west, as usual. I’m not issuing any amounts or calls until This time tomorrow . No need to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not issuing any amounts or calls until This time tomorrow . No need to We eargerly await your call... hope it pans out. I’m rooting for a region wide 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Did the 18z euro not come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We eargerly await your call... hope it pans out. I’m rooting for a region wide 8+ I honestly don’t think anyone cares on my call . Good luck out there in coastal SE Mass! Should do ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z Euro more tucked in then 12z so far, Heights higher out ahead, Sh it streak lifting out earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: 18z Euro more tucked in then 12z so far, Heights higher out ahead, Sh it streak lifting out earlier. Thx my grim reaper for pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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