Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a mess, but got better. I want to see that thump south of the cape move NW before it gets shredded. 

A couple less bricks in there

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thankfully I am east of that.  But like Ray said it won’t be quite like that

Oh good, That would suck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS, GEM, EURO and UK all look to place deformation in same general spot.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh good, That would suck.

I'm on the edge of that.  I can't see those Quabbin hilltowns getting screwed like that but who knows?  Seems like an awfully big screw zone too.  Days to go so who cares.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS, GEM, EURO and UK all look to place deformation in same general spot.

SNH down to C CT on east 

[Bostonseminole]

I love having the weekend to track storms..

[MJO812]

[radarman]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh good, That would suck.

I can see you all now crying in your beer with 7.5" when you were expecting a foot while we're fist bumping when an advy verifies.  It's all upside.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Every guidance has a pa to nj jack with a secondary max in ema. Gotta believe it to a certain extent, for now. 

[NeonPeon]

It's almost got the ri snow hole correct.  We have a winner.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

I can see you all now crying in your beer with 7.5" when you were expecting a foot while we're fist bumping when an advy verifies.  It's all upside.

You locking in 7.5" for me? I'll take it.

[radarman]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You locking in 7.5" for me? I'll take it.

I'd hold out for a foot if I were you

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Every guidance has a pa to nj jack with a secondary max in ema. Gotta believe it to a certain extent, for now. 

Most of us, anyway.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, radarman said:

I'd hold out for a foot if I were you

My thoughts are more in line with 6-10", Comfortable there ATT.

[Henry's Weather]

Uncanny to see watches out for Mid-Atlantic when we won't see them hoisted here for a day or two. Slow moving systems seem pretty rare these days.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Every guidance has a pa to nj jack with a secondary max in ema. Gotta believe it to a certain extent, for now. 

Have you read any Mets posts? Rays not a met . All of them have taken great pains to explain why the highest amounts will be west of models. 

[weatherwiz]

Here's H7 on the NAM:

Here's H85 (with an emphasis too on temperature gradient as well as the strength of inflow)

 

ULJ 

this should favor large scale lift

 

All of this would point towards a pretty monster band forming with more than sufficient QPF (despite what models are outputting). I actually feel very good about here in CT (though going to have to account for some dry air concerns when composing the forecast) 

but there are plenty of good looks (and of course some negatives) but I will gladly take alot of what's being modeled

[Spanks45]

GEFS look great...sign us up here in the SWCT zone

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Have you read any Mets posts? Rays not a met . All of them have taken great pains to explain why the highest amounts will be west of models. 

lol

[weatherwiz]

oops...I accidentally mixed NAM and GFS in that post but the jest is the same. 

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Every guidance has a pa to nj jack with a secondary max in ema. Gotta believe it to a certain extent, for now. 

The NYC area to the west always seems to have the same result in snowfall distro and intensity. East NE wind picking up ocean and LI sound moisture and dumping. Same for e mass. Wind over land for CT so lot less except immediate coast and far SW?

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

oops...I accidentally mixed NAM and GFS in that post but the jest is the same. 

hopefully you mean jist... I'm rooting for your analysis to be correct haha

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

hopefully you mean jist... I'm rooting for your analysis to be correct haha

yes thanks lol. doing a million things at once  

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Every guidance has a pa to nj jack with a secondary max in ema. Gotta believe it to a certain extent, for now. 

Euro was kind of east in the mid-Atlantic. Didn’t have the PA jack. More like SE NJ

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

lol

I may need to take a few wknd shifts to keep renting all that space in his grape, hey at least I have a bit of elevation

[dryslot]

Muthhafukker

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/29/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 30| SUN 31| MON 01| TUE 02| WED 03| THU 04| FRI 05|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  -1  19| -3  28|  4  29| 18  29| 20  35| 18  36| 21  39| 26 11 31
 TMP   1  10| -1  17|  7  23| 21  26| 22  26| 21  30| 25  34| 27      
 DPT -10  -8| -9   0|  1  13| 13  19| 15  15| 15  20| 20  25| 21      
 CLD  PC  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| OV  OV| OV  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV      
 WND  11  10|  5   4|  2  12| 13  15| 14  15|  4   6|  6   7|  9      
 P12   1   0|  2   1|  3   5| 37  39| 22   3|  8  14| 46  50| 31999999
 P24       1|      2|      6|     53|     22|     19|     55|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      2|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   1|  0   1|  0      
 T24        |  0    |  0    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  5      
 PZP   4   3|  4   2|  4   4|  9   7|  8   9|  8   8| 19  11|  4      
 PSN  96  97| 96  98| 96  95| 82  88| 89  78| 77  66| 41  24| 32      
 PRS   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  5   5|  2  11|  6  16| 10   9| 10      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  Z   R| RS      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      8|      1|      0|       |  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was kind of east in the mid-Atlantic. Didn’t have the PA jack. More like SE NJ

Do you think this recent cold blast could actually work to keep the baroclinic zone farther south or depending on how the re-development occurs/when would that work to bump it back north a bit? 

I still think the band is being way underdone...hell, there is even a strong signal for dynamic cooling aloft...that would further intensify the temp. gradient. Hell, look at 925...as warm as +8 to +9 C inflow with 925's actually cooling through the day down to around -9 to -10 in central New England. This is one helluva banding signal. 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Do you think this recent cold blast could actually work to keep the baroclinic zone farther south or depending on how the re-development occurs/when would that work to bump it back north a bit? 

I still think the band is being way underdone...hell, there is even a strong signal for dynamic cooling aloft...that would further intensify the temp. gradient. Hell, look at 925...as warm as +8 to +9 C inflow with 925's actually cooling through the day down to around -9 to -10 in central New England. This is one helluva banding signal. 

so essentially, warm, moist air off the ocean via storm circulation running into cold, dry air causes more instability?

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

so essentially, warm, moist air off the ocean via storm circulation running into cold, dry air causes more instability?

ohhhh, is that what x mB frontogenesis actually is? Air temp differential? that makes sense

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may need to take a few wknd shifts to keep renting all that space in his grape, hey at least I have a bit of elevation

Just ignore the Mets  Go with Emasswx.and modeled qpf .