Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Awesome run. 

Thanks for uncle Steve.  Liking the euro!  Queens last night queening...

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best EPS yet...even beats 12z yesterday.

This means game on. Snow means are always low

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it is more prominent in Mass....Will would know.

Good point-

It depends circumstantially...

If there's a lowered snow growth dependency in given system'ss output, and there is an E flow.... the orographic upglide forcing will bulge the stream lines into the growth region in bulk...and thus snows the shit out of the column as the air is forced up slope/particularly near the tops ...but, that air, now removed of substantive water - that induces the shadowing on the far side of the ridge line ..etc..

If there's a higher growth dependency in a system's ongoing shenanigans...that same wind will roll up and over the ridge and descend, and the bulge in the stream line may be lower than the growth region.  Which means the growth region is not receiving forced ascent ... But also, any air flow that comes back down slope compresses by density/gravity ...and that squeezes the V in PV=NRT ... and that raises the pressure in PV=NRT ... which means the temp rises to balance the physics... and when temp rises, that evaporates water... SO that does rob, just not as much. 

I would be willing to bet, that in storms where there was more obvious striated screw slots realized for western zones immediately west of those elevation bands ... reanalysis would show their snow growth regions were lower in the sounding than say that which gook place on Dec 17 over Rutland VT heh

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

There‘s a fair amount of monster hits on the eps and a lot of members nw of the mean. Glad the S trend came to screeching hault with the nw ticks back up and running. We’ll see if it levels off or if keeps coming back nw. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[CoastalWx]

Almost two camps on mean. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There‘s a fair amount of monster hits on the eps and a lot of members nw of the mean. Glad the S trend came to screeching hault with the nw ticks back up and running. We’ll see if it levels off or if keeps coming back nw. 

Welcome back 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Looking at the latest data ... looks pretty clearly like 03, 07, and 18 blend will suffice this iteration of 2020/2021's winter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Almost two camps on mean. 

Yea. Looks like grazers and big hits. 

[skierinvermont]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I'll take 27. 30 would mix some people but be quite historic.

[PWMan]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we can implement the one-line phrase posts

 

" [MODEL] looks good" onto the stock market it would become the next Game Stop 

My personal favorite is the ever-informative "Crush job"

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Looks like grazers and big hits. 

I meant in those graphics showing the LP centers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Almost two camps on mean. 

ORH points NE looks good...at least.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Welcome back 

Where did I go?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Almost two camps on mean. 

Pray for the east camp.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Counting 29 nice hits in CT and 21 near whiffs. We roll the dice.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pray for the west camp.

We appreciate your support.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We appreciate your support.

With the size of this thing, I don't want it any further west....I'm near ground zero now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Counting 29 nice hits in CT and 21 near whiffs. We roll the dice.

I think we’ll come up short but the at least the eps recovered the fumble.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s just pray for snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let’s just pray for big snow. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

That looks like a foot-ball office pool chart ...

We should do that, put down on chart numbers and then when all's said done and totals are in and we see the storm's verified layout - we'll have a more definitive and coherent spectrum for humility and teasing targeting packages that is/are based upon who ranked worst to best -

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where did I go?

Left .said she gone 

[Damage In Tolland]

Not sure id wanna be in NE Mass.

 

Interesting- heh

[OceanStWx]

00z runs were still a pretty clean split between the major ensemble camps. Euro on one side and GEFS on the other. The 12z should update on WPC's site by 22z.

[78Blizzard]

What I like about the EPS is the consistency of the best placement from 12z yesterday to 12z today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

What I like about the EPS is the consistency of the best placement from 12z yesterday to 12z today.

Yes, its consistently favored regions that Kev doesn't, which bolsters forecast confidence.

[Typhoon Tip]

I would expect the consensus to begin the formulation/coalescence process now come to think about it...96 hours the front loading is over with and the CCB will be doing it's swan song.

I still, however, believe there is a small amount of S/W kinematics over the eastern Pacific that may add ( take away...) some momentum into the total of this thing.  That piece looks susceptible to data shadowing by virtue of being nested so close in space and time, wrt to the California outside slider, and stuff out along 140 W in the Pac. 

[OceanStWx]

Broadly speaking the EPS had a deeper trof and less shortwave trofing (higher heights) north of the upper low. In fact over the lower Hudson Bay the EPS has shortwave ridging vs the GEFS shortwave trofing.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

I'll take 27. 30 would mix some people but be quite historic.

I mean just look at that crippling CCB comma head bomb between CC and NS on #37  ...man, someone out there had better tap the Nat Guard for early preparatory strategy meeting -