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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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I suspect that at least from the ORH hills points east, this may not be as prone to mesoscale screw jobs as some other events due to that deep layer E fetch....you aren't so dependent on low level fronto near the coast, and mid level deformation as the primary vehicles for ascent. I can envision a scenario where everyone that isn't rain is naked from ORH down to Kev points east, and then anyone who is not under the death band and/or in a valley is in a great deal of pain points west.

Higher stakes over WNE and NYS IMO.

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dryslot

dryslot

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The OP runs should start to lose it soon..always happens it seems. ENSEMBLES hopefully hold pretty steady though. 

The op runs are already doing there Op things by being SE right now only to come back to far west and watch the SE crew go hunting for the umbrellas and sump pumps while Luke rejoice's to only get the Messenger shuffle the last 24 hrs and folks just start smashing computers and breaking shovels.

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Hoth

Hoth

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suspect that at least from the ORH hills points east, this may not be as prone to mesoscale screw jobs as some other events due to that deep layer E fetch....you aren't so dependent on low level fronto near the coast, and mid level deformation as the primary vehicles for ascent. I can envision a scenario where everyone that isn't rain is naked from ORH down to Kev points east, and then anyone who is not under the death band and/or in a valley is in a great deal of pain points west.

Higher stakes over  WNE and NYS IMO.

FML then. Great.

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dryslot

dryslot

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a bit too tucked for my liking...
 

GEFS are perfect.

 

GEPS are a bit too far east...

 

I like where much of the region sits, right now....even a 75% comp in favor of the EPS would be near optimal.

One mans trash is another mans treasure.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Those lonely 8 lost in the bermuda triangle    :lol:

I thought the same thing when I looked lol.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a bit too tucked for my liking...
 

GEFS are perfect.

 

GEPS are a bit too far east...

 

I like where much of the region sits, right now....even a 75% comp in favor of the EPS would be near optimal.

Yup...big signal is there, some compromise will work for many. Still days to go for movement but I like where we are. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'll get caught up with other's contribution since ... but from where I'm sitting, the ensemble means are ominous.  Whether the portend is a chapter out of a Nichol's dystopian fantasy, or lesser impacts through other storm characteristics and means.... something is high confidence for significant impact, still. 

-- The various ensemble means - which I believe at 120-180 late mid range is still the course of lesser regret

All three, GEPS, GEFS and EPS came in substantially implicating .. relative to their previous blends. In fact , all three have improved along a constant trend for 5 cycles. That's a fantastic signal.. It's getting that unavoidable vibe about it - in the least, too much weight to ignore, and because the super synoptic, synoptic, and individual depictions are shared in conception for a large system with multi-faceted impact profiling... eigh ... 

-- The GEPs blend was the less improved in the absolute sense, but still gathered west and deeper all around.  Obviously the take away there is that it is taking advantage of the earlier thread discussion/ elaborated teleconnector convergence aspect, and probably .. this continues to emerge more consolidated/ west imho, in this particular cluster/future.  What's 'telecon convergence'? That's a personal-ism for when/where there are distinctly differing mass-field modalities exerting a statistical implication upon the same correlated space ... ( example, -NAO correlates to the EC .. the +PNAP correlates to ... duh duh dunnn    the EC ;)  )  The spirit of which is to compound the confidence interval that said location is getting its hide prepped for a tanning ... - LOL

--  The GEFs is deeper and west, both with mid level heights, and surface blended isobaric pressure over previous cycles.     The implication of this mean is a solid 48 hour Nor'easter...I suspect that gets narrowed to either the earlier or latter 24-hour period...  I have never heard or seen a Coastal storm rage for 48 straight hours with non stop implications of QPF loading, winds and onslaughts.  This event is slow moving ... that slow movement is because - imho as discussed in rhetorical artistry - it is situating in a kind of atmospheric Lagragian nexus, where there is an absence of steering field/equal stress to evac whatever ends up there - which is quite analogous really to what a gravitation Lagragian point is in space, where objects get trapped in gravitational amber between two celestial gravity wells because of equal tide effects.  I don't see that this conceptually can't have more practical usefulness, anyway, as all of it is ultimately based upon wave-mechanics anyway -...so, mathematicians can tussle but it doesn't matter.  Point is, the +PNAP is dumping synergistic wave feed-backs into a region that the decay of the erstwhile -NAO is abandoning, and that region is thus stranded as a node between two regions of exterior forcing, so it, too, ends up equally stressed much in the same way.

-- The EPS looks like a 30 hour blizzard of historic snow depth, but perhaps only moderate wind concerns relative to climate on this latter.  That's just the way that canvas looks - not forecasting that.  Good lord!  A 993 mb blend at D7 !!  on the BM, with a heights falling 10 dm across 24 hours preceding as the whole structure agonizes slowly by along a trajectory SE of ISP, L.I. ... All of which is bathed in -1 SE to -10 NW 850 mb CCB thermal profile beneath what conceptually has to be ideal everything .... sorry - it is what it is at this time.   The operational version being a less amplified .. more busted ravioli than it's own ensemble mean at D7 ... I've seen the oper. be less amped, albeit quite rare, over the ensemble mean, but not that far out in time - that's a head-scratcher.

I wouldn't hang up on individual cycle/operational distractions and/or "noise" this, or run to run specific give and take thats - this system still needs to come into front side of the mid-range. ...And these ens means, and operational signals ... they're all just explaining that,   I feel these crawling 2-day event depictions are really the bevy of technology flagging the ginormous numerically favorable 2-3 days period for something important to evolve ... the movement/structure of which is really more, for D5-8, being conducted by these super-structures ( emergent properties) combined with planetary R-wave motions.

Plenty of time...  This still looks to me like said 2-3 day period of higher tier numerical potential, just perhaps waiting for whatever S/W mechanics will time/handle into it..

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