Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it is.

I'm skeptical of like 35F in Foxborugh with 925 temps of -2C to -3C. I'd think that type of lapse rate is only going to happen right near the water.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That run is HubbDave jack...what a shock. lol

I'd bet a little east...on the east side of ORH hill spine.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks torchy

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it is.

I’ll take my chances with that look. Certainly won’t be a fluffy snow though 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...Now's about time for the Euro to come with 32" from Willamantic CT to ASH ...  lol

bump  -  nyuk nyuk nyuk

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm skeptical of like 35F in Foxborugh with 925 temps of -2C to -3C. I'd think that type of lapse rate is only going to happen right near the water.

That is the thing....the NARCAN algorithm excels at accurately conveying snowfall given the modeled thermal profile. If the model is too warm, then the map will be off.

[FXWX]

I rarely post, but thought I will throw my 2-cents in for the Monday / Tuesday event.  I would run with an earlier onset for SNE based on my experience with these setups.  Secondly, at this point in time, I would toss or at least not focus too closely on the modeled qpf maps right now; not only the snowfall junk maps; take qpf maps and put them aside for now.  If the large scale Euro features end-up close to verifying; higher qpf amounts will verify further west than now modeled.  Those 700 & 850 depictions and inflows are not going to keep big totals pinned across eastern SNE; 700 & 850 inflows certainly suggest to me that you should not under-play heavy totals pushing further into western CT & southeastern NY.   

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'd bet a little east...on the east side of ORH hill spine.

Yeah that's why I was saying paste job near BOS. Probably take that down 2-3. But SE MA may have some issues closer to the water for a time. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the thing....the NARCAN algorithm excels at accurate conveying snowfall given the modeled thermal profile. If the model is too warm, then the map will be off.

I like the jack zone as shown. Captures the deffy area I think.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, FXWX said:

I rarely post, but thought I will throw my 2-cents in for the Monday / Tuesday event.  I would run with an earlier onset for SNE based on my experience with these setups.  Secondly, at this point in time, I would toss or at least not focus too closely on the modeled qpf maps right now; not only the snowfall junk maps; take qpf maps and put them aside for now.  If the large scale Euro features end-up close to verifying; higher qpf amounts will verify further west than now modeled.  Those 700 & 850 depictions and inflows are not going to keep big totals pinned across eastern SNE; 700 & 850 inflows certainly suggest to me that you should not under-play heavy totals pushing further into western CT & southeastern NY.   

Outside of the valleys, yes...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah the pivotal clowns are trying to pummel SE mass with snow and 2m temps well into the 30s.

95% of our snow storms have temps in the 30s.

[78Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks torchy

850 and 925 never get up past the outer cape.  Dynamic cooling for the win.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

95% of our snow storms have temps in the 30s.

All about intense OMEGA that is well placed within the SGZ.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I rarely post, but thought I will throw my 2-cents in for the Monday / Tuesday event.  I would run with an earlier onset for SNE based on my experience with these setups.  Secondly, at this point in time, I would toss or at least not focus too closely on the modeled qpf maps right now; not only the snowfall junk maps; take qpf maps and put them aside for now.  If the large scale Euro features end-up close to verifying; higher qpf amounts will verify further west than now modeled.  Those 700 & 850 depictions and inflows are not going to keep big totals pinned across eastern SNE; 700 & 850 inflows certainly suggest to me that you should not under-play heavy totals pushing further into western CT & southeastern NY.   

Hey John! Yes.. thank you for chiming in here. We’ve been trying to explain that to weenies calling for an inch in CT and a foot in E MA. Qpf is tossed. It’s crushjob . They don’t look outside the box

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd bet a little east...on the east side of ORH hill spine.

Yea, to near my area or a bit west.

[dendrite]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

850 and 925 never get up past the outer cape.  Dynamic cooling for the win.

Like Will said...may need -3° at 925 with a strong east fetch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not totally sold about occlusion occurring that quickly either. Seems like that whole process is being accelerated...why not sure. I'm actually thinking a bit bullish for down this way as there is a quite a bit I like...especially regarding the baroclinic zone...+7C in the warm sector and as cold as -8C to -9C across the interior...that is one helluva gradient Assuming we don't occlude as quick as advertised this is going to have a monster band traverse SNE. I'm in the boat of a 1-2 feet for a large part of SNE

I'm not a huge fan of the "1-2" numerology for snow ranging .. heh

Its sneaky evasive and self-preservation that is SO J.B.   setting up a weasel out. 

12" between those end points ( roughly the length of the CD ironically )...  ?  

Folks, can we show some sacktitude and say 18-24" ...or, 12-18" ...  ?   new rule - no ranges less than 6" end points  

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You had your identity stolen? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Back to ENY and Berks jacks 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the thing....the NARCAN algorithm excels at accurate conveying snowfall given the modeled thermal profile. If the model is too warm, then the map will be off.

Yes...the highest risk is marginal temp thumps....the model will often try and keep sfc temps at 34F or something and in reality it cools to 31-32F. I think in the Euro's case, it is not showing exceptionally heavy rates on the 6 hourly QPF....so this probably helps the model keep sfc temps in that 34-35F range for a chunk of interior SE MA rather than closer to 32F as it has pretty good BL flow out of the due east. My guess is in reality, that is going to be colder if they are getting mod to heavy snow....but if rates are kind of meh, like 0.07-0.08 per hour stuff in the bucket...then they could certainly struggle somewhat early on.

[CoastalWx]

Although flow backs quickly to NE and N so that will help limit warmth. I'm all about man snow. Lets get Phil Swift to approve.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Like Will said...may need -3° at 925 with a strong east fetch. 

Well at least where I am, those 925's are -3° to -5° during the peak qpf period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You had your identity stolen? 

Negative. I have a vet who can't collect stimulus money bc someone is fraudulently claiming him as a dependent.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not a huge fan of the "1-2" numerology for snow ranging .. heh

Its sneaky evasive and self-preservation that is SO J.B.   setting up a weasel out. 

12" between those end points ( roughly the length of the CD ironically )...  ?  

Folks, can we show some sacktitude and say 18-24" ...or, 12-18" ...  ?   new rule - no ranges less than 6" end points  

I am not a huge fan either...I would never do that in a forecast, especially if forecast for a smaller geographical area (say Connecticut).

In this situation, I was just referring too the max range...but if I was tying a forecast to that the range would have been like 18-24'' for max end with the next area 12-18''. 

But i'm totally with you...I am not a fan of wide ranges...especially stuff like 2-5'' or 3-7''. My professor used to harp on that alot...the difference between 2'' and 5'' is snow plowing and snow blowing and well not needed to do either. 

I know landscapers HATE when they see ranges like that...it drives them nuts b/c it makes it difficult for them to plan

[MJO812]

Eps ticked northwest

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I rarely post, but thought I will throw my 2-cents in for the Monday / Tuesday event.  I would run with an earlier onset for SNE based on my experience with these setups.  Secondly, at this point in time, I would toss or at least not focus too closely on the modeled qpf maps right now; not only the snowfall junk maps; take qpf maps and put them aside for now.  If the large scale Euro features end-up close to verifying; higher qpf amounts will verify further west than now modeled.  Those 700 & 850 depictions and inflows are not going to keep big totals pinned across eastern SNE; 700 & 850 inflows certainly suggest to me that you should not under-play heavy totals pushing further into western CT & southeastern NY.   

I have been wondering about this and I "think" I have a plausible explanation why we are seeing these aggregated clusterings of QPF showing up in some of the recent guidances, packed within 50 miles of coasts N of NJ -

I'm noticing as we are nearing the neared side of the mid range and about to relay off to the outer range of the short range ( ...phew, hate those kind of sentences ), the models are getting interestingly quite cold in the BL at all the major hubs, PHL-NYC-BOS-PWM..   I think we may be getting a bit of long-fetch immediate coastal lift over CF effects there - I am not sure even the depictions of the higher resolution Euro species would really be illustrating that in the l-level discreteness ... but it might be there embedded in the on-going din of everything that's going on in the model physics. 

I just think with that deep longitudnal flow coming in normal to what is getting colder and colder in the guidance, there's likely to be some interesting QPF issues on the flop ( west) sides of those interfaces..

And I also wonder if said processing in the models may even be doing too much - as in over compensating for that interface. This could be causing some QPF shadowing to get exaggerated out in western zones where there's orographic effects then compounding.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...the highest risk is marginal temp thumps....the model will often try and keep sfc temps at 34F or something and in reality it cools to 31-32F. I think in the Euro's case, it is not showing exceptionally heavy rates on the 6 hourly QPF....so this probably helps the model keep sfc temps in that 34-35F range for a chunk of interior SE MA rather than closer to 32F as it has pretty good BL flow out of the due east. My guess is in reality, that is going to be colder if they are getting mod to heavy snow....but if rates are kind of meh, like 0.07-0.08 per hour stuff in the bucket...then they could certainly struggle somewhat early on.

I got burned on that last event on the cape....the lift was a bit stronger, and instead of the inch or less that I forecast, they got like 2-4".

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got burned on that last event on the cape....the lift was a bit stronger, and instead of the inch or less that I forecast, they got like 2-4".

Nam actually showed MVY getting pummeled at the end of it's frame. I looked at the sounding and it has big lift in the DGZ there at hr 84. So yeah, dynamics will help when available. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not a huge fan of the "1-2" numerology for snow ranging .. heh

Its sneaky evasive and self-preservation that is SO J.B.   setting up a weasel out. 

12" between those end points ( roughly the length of the CD ironically )...  ?  

Folks, can we show some sacktitude and say 18-24" ...or, 12-18" ...  ?   new rule - no ranges less than 6" end points  

I can see going 1-2' in a First Call....but when it comes to game day, you need to man up and identify subby zones and areas of deformation.

[Bostonseminole]

EPS looks good..