Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ray, how soon does your Euro NARCAN post?

[PhineasC]

I called it. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

One would think that QPF output is too low given the track and the speed. Or is this just weenie goggles?

It would probably be better with that inflow from the east.

[Henry's Weather]

Seems to really thump for about 12-18 hours with lingering Currier and Ives type stuff afterwards for another 18

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

One would think that QPF output is too low given the track and the speed. Or is this just weenie goggles?

I think you can go like 12:1....that run is a good 10-18".

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know how these go....the bands always trend to the west of modeling to find the rev

Yes, though I have definite concerns with dry air advecting south in the boundary layer through W Mass and N CT. The Euro keeps pretty high sfc dew point depressions through the event. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is decent

 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh you’re looking at qpf?  Thought you’d understand the deform was west 

I am lol its .77 for you

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yes, though I have definite concerns with dry air advecting south in the boundary layer through W Mass and N CT. The Euro keeps pretty high sfc dew point depressions through the event. 

I was being sarcastic.

I think that deformation is more like Steve-Union to ORH.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I called it. 

Want a cookie?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I am lol its .77 for you

Man, 1.4".....I will sign now.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yes, though I have definite concerns with dry air advecting south in the boundary layer through W Mass and N CT. The Euro keeps pretty high sfc dew point depressions through the event. 

That happens in the CTRV in these sometimes 

[Typhoon Tip]

hmm... I like symbolism - one of my hypocrisies as a self-proclaimed realist so bite me ..

But, systems that begin imposing problems in California have a way of imposing problems eastward across their continental reigns of terror.

Ever heard of the turn of phrase, "...This system has a history of producing...."   ?  ...sometimes even when all's said and done in aftermath, back-office conversations at NCEP even say, "...it's funny - that system had a long history of creating problems, too "

Well, this is causing flooding and damage out that way so... Perhaps it means nothing for how hard it snows at TTN - HFD - BED Mass ...

or does it - muah hahahahahaha

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My money is on the OP Euro improving at 12z....EPS will hold.

 

Just now, dryslot said:

Want a cookie?

If its a nookie cookie, no thanks.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro would be a solid foot here... we take 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That happens in the CTRV in these sometimes 

You were trying to tell me CTRV was fine all day yesterday lol

[CoastalWx]

Might be some ptype issues SE areas for a time. Maybe paste job near BOS.

[dendrite]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro would be a solid foot here... we take 

Looks torchy

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hmm... I like symbolism - one of my hypocrisies as a self-proclaimed realist so bite me ..

But, systems that begin imposing problems in California have a have a way of imposing problems eastward across their continental reigns of terror.

Ever heard of the turn of phrase, "...This system has a history of producing...."   ?  ...sometimes even when all's said and done in aftermath, back-office conversations at NCEP even say, "...it's funny - that system had a long history of creating problems, too "

Well, this is causing flooding and damage out that way so... Means nothing for how hard it snows at TTN - HFD-BED Mass ...

or does it - muah hahahahahaha

An old man poster here has a California rule. Perhaps he can chime in after he pees.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Looks torchy

Yeah it is.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Might be some ptype issues SE areas for a time. Maybe paste job near BOS.

Yeah the pivotal clowns are trying to pummel SE mass with snow and 2m temps well into the 30s.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You were trying to tell me CTRV was fine all day yesterday lol

Huh? I said I think the min there could be real due to the east inflow and downslope. It’s happened in quite a few storms over the years . Morch 2013 they had like 6”. Same with Dec 92. While hills east and west pummeled 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Might be some ptype issues SE areas for a time. Maybe paste job near BOS.

:)

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro is worse here - like I said 0z last night a pipe dream. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yes, though I have definite concerns with dry air advecting south in the boundary layer through W Mass and N CT. The Euro keeps pretty high sfc dew point depressions through the event. 

yeah...it's maybe an obscure, less important observation but I think it's interesting just how thermodynamically cold this air mass is at onset and during, yet the heights at 500 mb are so elevated relative to that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah the pivotal clowns are trying to pummel SE mass with snow and 2m temps well into the 30s.

[radarman]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is decent

plenty of time to tick tick tick back toward the usual Mitch jackpot

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro would be a solid foot here... we take 

Yup.  Looks like 12-18" here.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats Jersey shore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That run is HubbDave jack...what a shock. lol