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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm all for giving credit where its due, but I just feel like that is dumb 4 days out in a fairly fluid situation.

NYC gets creamed, and Boston gets 5", I'll be the first to give you credit.

I will reiterate.. NYC could get severely shafted . Too far southwest for firehose snows and WAA misses . Would not want to live there.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm all for giving credit where its due, but I just feel like that is dumb 4 days out in a fairly fluid situation.

NYC gets creamed, and Boston gets 5", I'll be the first to give you credit.

That won’t happen.  BOS is probably fine but I think there’s a decent chance NYC gets more than ORH or BDL and certainly any place west of ORH in MA.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I will reiterate.. NYC could get severely shafted . Too far southwest for firehose snows and WAA misses . Would not want to live there.

I am more open minded with this one than I normally am with Miller Bs because the S stream is involved and  we see that LBSW. All bets are off with that.

I can't stand when the mid atl gets crushed because the question that immediately follows is how will that limit SNE snow.....bc 9.9/ ten times it will.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. possible...I agree.

The occluding factor is what makes this thing tricky on accumulation.  The GFS probably occludes it too quickly while I felt the GGEM didn’t do it fast enough.  This led to stupidly high snow totals near NYC on the GGEM given it’s evolution.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am more open minded with this one than I normally am with Miller Bs because the S stream is involved and  we see that LBSW. All bets are off with that.

I can't stand when the mid atl gets crushed because the question that immediately follows is how will that limit SNE snow.....bc 9.9/ ten times it will.

 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The occluding factor is what makes this thing tricky on accumulation.  The GFS probably occludes it too quickly while I felt the GGEM didn’t do it fast enough.  This led to stupidly high snow totals near NYC on the GGEM given it’s evolution.  

Same page.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am more open minded with this one than I normally am with Miller Bs because the S stream is involved and  we see that LBSW. All bets are off with that.

I can't stand when the mid atl gets crushed because the question that immediately follows is how will that limit SNE snow.....bc 9.9 out ten times it will.

Nyc area is walking a tightrope. SNE will get snow and probably a good hit,, but farther Sw is dicey

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nyc area is walking a tightrope. SNE will get snow and probably a good hit,, but farther Sw is dicey

I think we are both in the same boat for diff reasons...NYC has shot at the first load, while we do not. We have a shot at the secondary hook-redevelopment, and they do not.

Only high confidence crush is a portion of the mid atl.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The occlusion/LBSW makes what would normally heavily favor SNE a crap shoot.

There’s just been some strange stuff this winter overall.  The December storm had the really bizarre displacement of the 700 low from the center which while the occurrence itself wasn’t unusual the fact it was SO displaced in a system that basically began developing over Tennessee was odd.  This time it seems to occlude unusually fast.  As Tip said, part of that is the setup isn’t great aloft and the ceiling is low on how much it can mature but it seems to be occurring at a faster rate than normal regardless 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Just now, dryslot said:

Areas to the south also have the WAA thump going for them, And maybe someone gets a little of both from the developing SLP.

The areas which will get hit by both the WAA and then the main low is really really tiny.  It might be focused mostly near the eastern portion of Mason Dixon line southeast into DE.  Even DCA on many of the models and ensembles gets its snow 80/20 on the WAA/coastal.  

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New Hampshire Weather

New Hampshire Weather

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I would say just sit back and enjoy the snow runs and watch the mid-atlantic snow fans descend into madness as the trends start to favor new england in the last few hours of the storm. Remember last storm? The GFS had the CCB south of Nantucket until a few dozen hours before the storm. The CCB ended up north of Concord NH.

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dryslot

dryslot

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The areas which will get hit by both the WAA and then the main low is really really tiny.  It might be focused mostly near the eastern portion of Mason Dixon line southeast into DE.  Even DCA on many of the models and ensembles gets its snow 80/20 on the WAA/coastal.  

Still the difference of a few more inches to be had, A couple days ago that all transpired further north over a broader area as the low was slowing as it transitioned, But we have other problems aloft upstream that's adding to the chaos up this way.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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2 minutes ago, New Hampshire Weather said:

I would say just sit back and enjoy the snow runs and watch the mid-atlantic snow fans descend into madness as the trends start to favor new england in the last few hours of the storm. Remember last storm? The GFS had the CCB south of Nantucket until a few dozen hours before the storm. The CCB ended up north of Concord NH.

Difference is that was a track issue. This is track and occlusion...my concern is more the latter.

The Dec system was occluding, albeit at a much slower rate because it had better SW mechanics.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I have the dagger in the back emoji on standby.

In all seriousness if the 12Z Euro continues going south you have to think we have big problems.  The 06Z would have basically missed most of my area entirely outside of LI and a decent part of western SNE.  It’s hard for me to see it getting much worse but who knows  

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

In all seriousness if the 12Z Euro continues going south you have to think we have big problems.  The 06Z would have basically missed most of my area entirely outside of LI and a decent part of western SNE.  It’s hard for me to see it getting much worse but who knows  

The further south it ends up were asking a lot for a tug back NW that has any siggy consequence up here, An occluded low may bring some lighter snows further north but it would also probably be more for eastern areas to boot

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