Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

Tickled SE of 06z.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Meh.

[dryslot]

I'm not going to let the GFS ruin my day..........lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Who cares on this model  Discontinued in Morch

[CoastalWx]

We washer machine.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm not going to let the GFS ruin my day..........lol

Yeah you have at least 90 minutes until the Euro does.

[Spanks45]

Wonder how well the new GFS does with things like confluence to our northeast with regards to the old GFS? Might be a good way to look at which model might have a clue at least? Clearly there has been a bit of a difference between the to with regards to our sensible weather here in the northeast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We washer machine.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We washer machine.

It would be helpful if more northern stream energy injected...ala Euro.

[Typhoon Tip]

-- NAM has a NW bias beyond 48 ...and particularly 60 hours ..wrt to west Atlantic/near-coastal cyclogenesis and subsequent axis of movement.  This has been repeated ~ 10 times per season, now going back ... pretty much to the beginning of weather-related, Internet graphics consuming hobby-ism.

-- This system still appears to be a moderate impact K.U. event; despite all peregrinations beautifully formulated across the last 4 or so days of its epic poetic life cycle, ...that's still appears the bounce-back position. 

-- Having said that, I do think this is entire evolution, thus far handled across all guidance ... , is not maximizing the hemispheric signal.  That is a facet I have found interesting about this whole thing ( not that my interest matters to anyone ...).  But, this slow moving +PNA modality --> +PNAP western height expansion, while there is a vestigial western limb -NAO collapsing through the 60W/55N ~ region of the Canadian Maritime, really does offer a superb mass-field signaled opportunity or a slow moving, deep height nadir through 90W-60W ...S of the 50th latitude line - a box that places the M/A -- NE regions under watch for significance cyclogenesis.  

We got it, but it's shirked on qualitative/quantitative maximization of what can fit in that geography. 

-- Can that change?   Believe it or not ...this can go weaker, or stronger as an actual cyclonic response.  I have been watching this aspect (blw) now for almost three days worth of cycles, ...from where/what model free-sources ( lol ) allow. There is a sneaky intermediary S/W dosing that is being handled with subtle momentum signature variance, run to run, in the 500 mb charts in every guidance.

This is the 06z GFS from Golden Gate ( this morning...), used only to elucidate the concern ( only ...):

 

This annotation off the west coast over the open ocean SSE of the GOA, I have noted, is behaving like a crucial piece to the total amplitude puzzle as all this coalesces upon the eastern seaboard ~ 72 hours post this frame.   What's new... low curvature trajectory at planetary scales, means circumstantially that everything modeled to pass over the continent has to be 100% integration of dubious physical data and a whole truck load of (sat soundings + assimilating)/2 ... leads to confidence -related issues.

The problem is ... assimilation has improved markedly over the last 10 years ( I have personally noticed..)... The Boxing Day correction event is the most notable occurrence I can recall..where a late mid range system was physically lost ..only to come demonstratively back at time frames < 72 hours.  ...particularly 48 hours actually!  That was 10 years ago. The synopsis leading that event was a flattish sort of speedier set up ...with the causal wave spacing coming in on a flat, shadowy trajectory like we see above. It came in stronger, rolled out more S/W ridging ahead of it... and together with a similar +PNAP expansion as we see modeled now ( about 72 hours out)... the rest was history. 

What makes this above, "possibly" different is that the wave space in that ovoid circle in question is HUUUGELY sensitive to 'permutation-al analysis' to put it nicely. It's like a piece of stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant ass physical presences in the flow/ grids, and I wonder if the assimilation might be prone to 'eclipsing effects' - so to speak - because it is sandwiched delicately between.. 

I think it is going to matter... when that feature has come in like 5 kts stronger, I have noticed the tenor coefficient of forum-gaiety gets larger, joy abounds.. at the [enter superlative ...]  impact some model has delivered the region. And ..of course, when it has come in slightly weaker, 'Ho god ...no.  Not again'.   This piece of momentum feeds into the backside of this ... sneaky...and helps what is otherwise a rather starved system for momentum.  Some of the recent guidance has been less with that little feature.  It's not the whole potato salad ...I'm not saying that.  But, every bit helps ...

Summary:   What we have is a favorable hemispheric window per the super synoptic/synoptic background/teleconnector, one that is merely getting paltry S/W feed-in.  I am definitely seeing that when that feature above is ever so slightly stronger, coming through the SW on the heels of the "Outside slider"/California initial relay above, it seems to constructively interfere ..fusing in nearing the TV. Then, in not being a fan of coincidences, 2 to 4 dm deeper height cores up along NE coast and that "photogenic" better look, I suspect is related..

[Damage In Tolland]

Again.. no one cares about the FV3. 
Now if the Ukie is east, then you worry because the Euro would follow it 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you have at least 90 minutes until the Euro does.

That won't either, Tomorrow at this time though.

[RDRY]

Has a storm ever occluded faster than this one? It's a shredded mess from the word "go."

[dryslot]

[KoalaBeer]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

At least 5'

Same system that just hit the Sierras, it has precedent. 

[dryslot]

That 12z GFS run was pretty weak sauce.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

-- NAM has a NW bias beyond 48 ...and particularly 60 hours ..wrt to west Atlantic/near-coastal cyclogenesis and subsequent axis of movement.  This has been repeated ~ 10 times per season, now going back ... pretty much to the beginning of weather-related, Internet graphics consuming hobby-ism.

-- This system still appears to be a moderate impact K.U. event; despite all peregrinations beautifully formulated across the last 4 or so days of its epic poetic life cycle, ...that's still appears the bounce-back position. 

-- Having said that, I do think this is entire evolution, thus far handled across all guidance ... , is not maximizing the hemispheric signal.  That is a facet I have found interesting about this whole thing ( not that my interest matters to anyone ...).  But, this slow moving +PNA modality --> +PNAP western height expansion, while there is a vestigial western limb -NAO collapsing through the 60W/55N ~ region of the Canadian Maritime, really does offer a superb mass-field signaled opportunity or a slow moving, deep height nadir through 90W-60W ...S of the 50th latitude line - a box that places the M/A -- NE regions under watch for significance cyclogenesis.  

We got it, but it's shirked on qualitative/quantitative maximization of what can fit in that geography. 

-- Can that change?   Believe it or not ...this can go weaker, or stronger as an actual cyclonic response.  I have been watching this aspect (blw) now for almost three days worth of cycles, ...from where/what model free-sources ( lol ) allow. There is a sneaky intermediary S/W dosing that is being handled with subtle momentum signature variance, run to run, in the 500 mb charts in every guidance.

This is the 06z GFS from Golden Gate ( this morning...), used only to elucidate the concern ( only ...):

 

This annotation off the west coast over the open ocean SSE of the GOA, I have noted, is behaving like a crucial piece to the total amplitude puzzle as all this coalesces upon the eastern seaboard ~ 72 hours post this frame.   What's new... low curvature trajectory at planetary scales, means circumstantially that everything modeled to pass over the continent has to be 100% integration of dubious physical data and a whole truck load of (sat soundings + assimilating)/2 ... leads to confidence -related issues.

The problem is ... assimilation has improved markedly over the last 10 years ( I have personally noticed..)... The Boxing Day correction event is the most notable occurrence I can recall..where a late mid range system was physically lost ..only to come demonstratively back at time frames < 72 hours.  ...particularly 48 hours actually!  That was 10 years ago. The synopsis leading that event was a flattish sort of speedier set up ...with the causal wave spacing coming in on a flat, shadowy trajectory like we see above. It came in stronger, rolled out more S/W ridging ahead of it... and together with a similar +PNAP expansion as we see modeled now ( about 72 hours out)... the rest was history. 

What makes this above, "possibly" different is that the wave space in that ovoid circle in question is HUUUGELY sensitive to 'permutation-al analysis' to put it nicely. It's like a piece of stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant ass physical presences in the flow/ grids, and I wonder if the assimilation might be prone to 'eclipsing effects' - so to speak - because it is sandwiched delicately between.. 

I think it is going to matter... when that feature has come in like 5 kts stronger, I have noticed the tenor coefficient of forum-gaiety gets larger, joy abounds.. at the [enter superlative ...]  impact some model has delivered the region. And ..of course, when it has come in slightly weaker, 'Ho god ...no.  Not again'.   This piece of momentum feeds into the backside of this ... sneaky...and helps what is otherwise a rather starved system for momentum.  Some of the recent guidance has been less with that little feature.  It's not the whole potato salad ...I'm not saying that.  But, every bit helps ...

Summary:   What we have is a favorable hemispheric window per the super synoptic/synoptic background/teleconnector, one that is merely getting paltry S/W feed-in.  I am definitely seeing that when that feature above is ever so slightly stronger, coming through the SW on the heels of the "Outside slider"/California initial relay above, it seems to constructively interfere ..fusing in nearing the TV. Then, in not being a fan of coincidences, 2 to 4 dm deeper height cores up along NE coast and that "photogenic" better look, I suspect is related..

Are there cliff notes for this novel?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Wonder how well the new GFS does with things like confluence to our northeast with regards to the old GFS? Might be a good way to look at which model might have a clue at least? Clearly there has been a bit of a difference between the to with regards to our sensible weather here in the northeast.

The 12z gfs69 does look better than the gfs but worse then it’s previous runs.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is going to be SE of the 00z run.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The 12z gfs69 does look better. 

it does, definitely a hair to the SE from prior runs, but sort of looks like the 12z NAM, for what its worth....

[The Graupler]

 

Curious how good the updated GFS works with confluence to our north and east compared to the old GF?   May be a great way to determine which model has a better idea?    Obviously thers been a slight difference amongst the two in regard to our tempered weather in the northeast. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The writing is on the wall, especially for west zones. It is what it is.

[dryslot]

The sh it streak is becoming problematic.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That 12z GFS run was pretty weak sauce.

I can't even get interested in this until maybe tomorrow.

[dryslot]

I would still bang the 12z GGEM.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Has a storm ever occluded faster than this one? It's a shredded mess from the word "go."

It maximizes fast because the forcing is weak ...so it attains it max potential early  - really simple...

Folks keep bangin their hope-heads against their computer screen ever 6 hours for the new run, and until this gets a stronger mechanical feed in of S/W kinematics, it's only going to fluctuate around those distracting observations.

[PWMan]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That 12z GFS run was pretty weak sauce.

Days and days of non-accumulating flurries followed by a grazer, followed by a rainer. The epicosity continues.

[dryslot]

Just now, PWMan said:

Days and days of non-accumulating flurries followed by a grazer, followed by a rainer. The epicosity continues.

That would send many to the ledge.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would still bang the 12z GGEM.

Wide right turn and then it comes almost due north to still hit many very good...but that trend is following what we saw on the 00z and 06z EPS.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pretty good jog SE on the CMC