Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

-That's a lot more tucked than previous EPS runs

Oh, god.......that has the LBSW look. You would like to think a deep layer easterly fetch would minimize that, but not a fan of that look for a high-end deal. Saving grace maybe that the the low itself is not intense.

[SouthCoastMA]

I prefer the previous runs. But more changes to come

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I prefer the previous runs. But more changes to come

Exactly....don't confuse that NE kick with a se trend, either....it can still tuck into the coast, but just develop later. Miller Bs can and do hug.

[ORH_wxman]

Top analogs on CIPS (based off GFS).....Scooter just walked down into his basement with a sledgehammer after seeing the top one

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, god.......that has the LBSW look. You would like to think a deep layer easterly fetch would minimize that, but not a fan of that look for a high-end deal. Saving grace maybe that the the low itself is not intense.

What in the Sam Hell is LBSW

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

What in the Sam Hell is LBSW

Late blooming shortwave ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What in the Sam Hell is LBSW

Load Blown South West...NJ and W CT get the hot sister, I get the red-headed step child, as folks ostracize me for complaining because she has a great personality.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Top analogs on CIPS (based off GFS).....Scooter just walked down into his basement with a sledgehammer after seeing the top one

 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

What in the Sam Hell is LBSW

I keep trying to figure that out too...lol.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Load Blown South West...NJ and W CT get the hot sister, I get the red=headed step child, as folks ostracize me for complaining because she has a great personality.

How do you get that by looking at 06 EPS? Or are you ascared

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yup. As I said a few days ago to Bobby... I’m favoring/hedging towards the interior. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I remember that event...I was just getting mobilized from the Marine Reserves...was commuting from Wilmington to Ayer for a week before deploying....there was like nothing S of the pike and inside rt 128, like a foot in Wilmington, and 18" in Ayer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How do you get that by looking at 06 EPS? Or are you ascared

I am scared, yes....had a lot of bad luck with snow for about 3 seasons now.

On a grander scale, which is what is important at this range, all systems go for a storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember that event...I was just getting mobilized from the Marine Reserves...was commuting from Wilmington to Ayer for a week before deploying....there was like nothing S of the pike and inside rt 128, like  a foot in Wilmington, and 18" in Ayer.

Ridiculous gradient in between 495 and 128.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Pretty tucked for CT on quite a few of those panels.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ridiculous gradient in between 495 and 128.

I think that may have been an event when Methuen was noticeably better than Wilmington...more on par with  Ayer.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Load Blown South West...NJ and W CT get the hot sister, I get the red-headed step child, as folks ostracize me for complaining because she has a great personality.

lol...but Personalities are timeless and matter more. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ridiculous gradient in between 495 and 128.

Frustrating for the coast because that was a cold period....this is a couple of weeks later, which is significant around peak climo, so coast would far better if that came to pass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol...but Personalities are timeless and matter more. 

I should be bunned several times over for even going there,at this stage.....hit me.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember that event...I was just getting mobilized from the Marine Reserves...was commuting from Wilmington to Ayer for a week before deploying....there was like nothing S of the pike and inside rt 128, like a foot in Wilmington, and 18" in Ayer.

Foot + south of 90. Remember 

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Load Blown South West...NJ and W CT get the hot sister, I get the red-headed step child, as folks ostracize me for complaining because she has a great personality.

I could not agree more

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I should be bunned several times over for even going there,at this stage.....hit me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Foot + south of 90. Remember 

I mean near the coast...not interior. S of I90 AND INSIDE RT 128....

[Ginx snewx]

Some biggies in that analog list as well. 2015 and 96. 96 would be sweet

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Some biggies in that analog list as well. 2015 and 96. 96 would be sweet

Its a great synoptic look....I'm just being unnecessarily neurotic at this range.

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and if you toss the FL members, that’s bonkers. Those are not only skewing the sfc low placement but mean qpf as well. 

Holy moly....could this be the one that breaks my 10yr 16”+ drought? Probably not lol but it’s the best shot I’m gonna get.

Those lonely 8 lost in the bermuda triangle   

[WinterWolf]

The OP runs should start to lose it soon..always happens it seems. ENSEMBLES hopefully hold pretty steady though. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

The emotional investment coefficient has gone up significantly for many over the last 24hrs.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z EPS looked a bit more tucked than 00z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The OP runs should start to lose it soon..always happens it seems. ENSEMBLES hopefully hold pretty steady though. 

Yea, I haven't even looked.