Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Sn0waddict]

I think all of SNE is going to like the nam..

[RDRY]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

12z Nam lifting the Scooter shit streak further NE. 

It's lifted northeast on at least the past two NAM runs, with heights rising accordingly along the coast. Need to keep that going.

[dryslot]

The 12z Nam was about to go nuts over the eastern areas as it was lifting north on the last panel.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

I have not lost sight, I mentioned it yesterday that this has a very broad precip shield associated with the orientation of the ULL, That's why i came in this morning to talk some off the ledge, Have to let this play out, Small nuance changes can have large implications further to the west.

I wasn't melting over the EURO, but for instance, I need to remain mindful that a track over the BM doesn't yield climo results in this as far as deform placement, etc.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Coastal crushjob thru 84 with more to go.

[dryslot]

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

I have not lost sight, I mentioned it yesterday that this has a very broad precip shield associated with the orientation of the ULL, That's why i came in this morning to talk some off the ledge, Have to let this play out, Small nuance changes can have large implications further to the west.

We need it closer to the US than Bermuda though.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't melting over the EURO, but for instance, I need to remain mindful that a track over the BM doesn't yield climo results in this as far as deform placement, etc.

Thats what i was referring too, I think some had lost sight on what scott had mentioned and with other systems, It would be right to have it that far east and miss.

[SnowGoose69]

There’s no doubt in my mind either the GFS/UKMET/CMC joins the Euro and shifts like 80 miles ESE then the Euro will come in and look like the NAM.  We see that happen usually one cycle around this range where the Euro does the opposite of what everyone thinks as soon as one other model moves towards it 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

We need it closer to the US than Bermuda though.

Well yeah, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfect example of why our upper tier events almost never crush the mid atl...you need to deal with this crap. It can and does work out, but there is more that can go wrong, and the ceiling is lowered a notch or two.

When we first began tracking this, I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw the 20"+ totals in PA.

@Baroclinic Zone Let me know what confused you, and I'll elaborate...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

There’s no doubt in my mind either the GFS/UKMET/CMC joins the Euro and shifts like 80 miles ESE then the Euro will come in and look like the NAM.  We see that happen usually one cycle around this range where the Euro does the opposite of what everyone thinks as soon as one other model moves towards it 

Yea, it zigs as the rest of the guidance zags.

[Bostonseminole]

NAM is our savior, told you

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

NAM is our savior, told you

The NAM is more likely to force you to drink poisonous Kool-Aid in a jungle clearing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z EPS is pretty dead nuts on 12z EPS yesterday

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

06z EPS is pretty dead nuts on 12z EPS yesterday

[mahk_webstah]

You have to think if there is room to come north then it will.  Isn't that what usually happens?

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Yuge 12z runs today as far as seeing some of these recent trends continue, halt, or begin to reverse. Probably time to start taking OP runs a little bit more serious, no?

Isn't it this afternoon/evening that the "real" sampling takes place for the last pieces to the puzzle

[ORH_wxman]

NAM would def be good for a lot of SNE...might be a little thin in NW MA extrapolating, but for most of the region, that is a nice look.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Isn't it this afternoon/evening that the "real" sampling takes place for the last pieces to the puzzle

I’m pretty sure some of the players for this event have begun to be sampled.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I’m pretty sure some of the players for this event have begun to be sampled.

The main shortwave is mostly onshore in CA, but still a little bit remains offshore. By 00z the entire thing will be onshore. I don't expect drastic changes though.

[PhineasC]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The main shortwave is mostly onshore in CA, but still a little bit remains offshore. By 00z the entire thing will be onshore. I don't expect drastic changes though.

UKMET: "hold my beer"

[dryslot]

Right now, Whats going to happen upstream is whats going to drive the bus.

[CoastalWx]

NAM was about to slay at hr 84.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The main shortwave is mostly onshore in CA, but still a little bit remains offshore. By 00z the entire thing will be onshore. I don't expect drastic changes though.

Probably not with respect to H5 positioning, but potentially in term of anticipated sensible weather across the region..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Right now, Whats going to happen upstream is whats going to drive the bus.

Agree. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. 

I know you already know but the sooner that gets out of the way the better for the WOR crowd.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I know you already know but the sooner that gets out of the way the better for the WOR crowd.

That’s it. That’s the main player. That will drive where the mid levels can start to curl. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably not with respect to H5 positioning, but potentially in term of anticipated sensible weather across the region..

Yes...clearly 25-50 miles can make a big difference. L'm just not all of the sudden expecting to see a storm 400 miles SE or tracking over Scooter's fanny. I think the goalposts are relatively narrow for this time range.

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s it. That’s the main player. That will drive where the mid levels can start to curl. 

I'm looking at the 12z ICON and it looks to be well west of the 06z run where SE MA may have issues this run......lol.

06z

12z