Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[mahk_webstah]

26 minutes ago, New Hampshire Weather said:

Don't worry my fellow New Hampshirites, it will happen. Last second northwestward trend is coming just hold on. 

Even so the euro gave 4+ for many in s and c nh .  I hope that is the floor.  Maybe the ceiling is 12

[New Hampshire Weather]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Disagree.   OV primary with redevelopment over Hatteras has produced some of the classic big ones I’ve seen.  The most notable is 12/11-12, 1960.

really depends on how the ridging over Canada or wherever is setup and evolves

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Yuge 12z runs today as far as seeing some of these recent trends continue, halt, or begin to reverse. Probably time to start taking OP runs a little bit more serious, no?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

At this lead time... with possible mixing concerns, I’d start with 5-10” for this area.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both storms had a similar axis of heaviest snow....'15 might have been just a smidge west of Mar '18....the latter basically had the huge totals stop at Windham county up to ORH.

But yeah, this one looks less prolific than either storm at the moment. Could still change, but that elongated upper low look definitely puts a cap on this....we need it to fatten up again.

 

I remembered 18 has having that secondary deform axis while 15 concentrated east

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No it's not....in terms of placement of best deform axis. (3/13/18)

Yea, I meant qualitatively....more like 8-16", as opposed to 15-30".

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I remembered 18 has having that secondary deform axis while 15 concentrated east

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Yuge 12z runs today as far as seeing some of these recent trends continue, halt, or begin to reverse. Probably time to start taking OP runs a little bit more serious, no?

Yes, each passing cycle makes the OP runs more useful. Ensembles will still be more skilled but not by a lot. .

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Meh congrats eastern areas

Like I said, people way too attached to op runs.

[Damage In Tolland]

All you’ll want or need to see today are if things move west... even in small increments. So far all 6z runs did . You don’t need to see 21.2” over your house today. 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I remembered 18 has having that secondary deform axis while 15 concentrated east

PTSD. Got 3" that melted while areas to my east and west were well over a foot. Awful awful storm. 

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope. 3/13.

Is that the one that gave us 30”?  Ha.

[CoastalWx]

And I can't stress enough that unless your Powderfreak, you don't want this tucked close to the Cape, even the interior. It's a huge circulation. a track near the BM probably jacks the Berkshires into Brian's area. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Is that the one that gave us 30”?  Ha.

That was the one the buried the cadavers in srn VT with 4' of snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

And I can't stress enough that unless your Powderfreak, you don't want this tucked close to the Cape, even the interior. It's a huge circulation. a track near the BM probably jacks the Berkshires into Brian's area. 

Gotta be honest, I keep losing sight of this, as well.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

PTSD. Got 3" that melted while areas to my east and west were well over a foot. Awful awful storm. 

Yeah, I smoked major exhaust in that one with a side of dim-sun, lol. Not my favorite storm

[CoastalWx]

The one thing where I might want a little tuck, is the hook and ladder. If that happens, a new area of lift and probably CCB regeneration happens closer to the low. Otherwise if this blows over PHL and NJ and tucks in there, it will be the brick in the washer machine and be a banded mess. You'll want to be more in the TROWAL and mid level lift which in theory would extend far away from the low. 

[GCWarrior]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was the one the buried the cadavers in srn VT with 4' of snow. 

What a run that was for SVT.  I had the flu and other horrible maladies. I heard the skiing was top notch!  

[SouthCoastMA]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At this lead time... with possible mixing concerns, I’d start with 5-10” for this area.

Interior folks are melting..yet we all know where this ends up. I'm going 2-5" here.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be honest, I keep losing sight of this, as well.

Me too. I also think the qpf maps are blinding my inability to look higher up but I keep seeing Jan 15 referenced and is the top analog...and that one never had the mid level lift nw of the qpf max. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was the one the buried the cadavers in srn VT with 4' of snow. 

Ahh yeah.  We had one that month that did a big combo of synoptic and upslope. It might have been that one?  Either way, looks quite different haha.

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Me too. I also think the qpf maps are blinding my inability to look higher up but I keep seeing Jan 15 referenced and is the top analog...and that one never had the mid level lift nw of the qpf max. 

I still think 6 inches is our magic number here...anything over that number will be awesome. Is it snowing at your place right now? We have had legit light snow here since sunrise...blowing sideways and its only 8⁰, looks like the tundra out there

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I can't stress enough that unless your Powderfreak, you don't want this tucked close to the Cape, even the interior. It's a huge circulation. a track near the BM probably jacks the Berkshires into Brian's area. 

WTTTE

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The one thing where I might want a little tuck, is the hook and ladder. If that happens, a new area of lift and probably CCB regeneration happens closer to the low. Otherwise if this blows over PHL and NJ and tucks in there, it will be the brick in the washer machine and be a banded mess. You'll want to be more in the TROWAL and mid level lift which in theory would extend far away from the low. 

Perfect example of why our upper tier events almost never crush the mid atl...you need to deal with this crap. It can and does work out, but there is more that can go wrong, and the ceiling is lowered a notch or two.

When we first began tracking this, I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw the 20"+ totals in PA.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I still think 6 inches is our magic number here...anything over that number will be awesome. Is it snowing at your place right now? We have had legit light snow here since sunrise...blowing sideways and its only 8⁰, looks like the tundra out there

Yea. Woke up to a little fresh coat of the white stuff. Garage cam shows flurries currently as well. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

24 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

What a run that was for SVT.  I had the flu and other horrible maladies. I heard the skiing was top notch!  

Yes, the absolute best day at Stratton I’ve ever had.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12z Nam lifting the Scooter shit streak further NE. 

[Sn0waddict]

Ohhh that’s definitely a better look for coastal SNE. Will see if it goes any further north.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Scooter used a wet wipe AND some Scott’s for the extra moisture left behind, nice.

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I can't stress enough that unless your Powderfreak, you don't want this tucked close to the Cape, even the interior. It's a huge circulation. a track near the BM probably jacks the Berkshires into Brian's area. 

 

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be honest, I keep losing sight of this, as well.

I have not lost sight, I mentioned it yesterday that this has a very broad precip shield associated with the orientation of the ULL, That's why i came in this morning to talk some off the ledge, Have to let this play out, Small nuance changes can have large implications further to the west.