Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

Two Entirely different perspectives.  One guy says it’s “game over,” the other says “game on.”

Very interesting set of modeling runs coming up today and tomorrow. 

[SouthCoastMA]

The GEFS are more tucked. I'd love to see the Euro verify, but skeptical

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Two Entirely different perspectives.  One guy says it’s “game over,” the other says “game on.”

Very interesting set of modeling runs coming up today and tomorrow. 

Trends are not our friends but game over as in anything 12+ for us. Still have wiggle room to pull out a warning event. 

[Johnno]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Trends are not our friends but game over as in anything 12+ for us. Still have wiggle room to pull out a warning event. 

Nothing wrong with a nice 4-8 or 5-10er in this sh*t winter

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The GEFS are more tucked. I'd love to see the Euro verify, but skeptical

GEFS and EPS look fairly similar.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Trends are not our friends but game over as in anything 12+ for us. Still have wiggle room to pull out a warning event. 

Imo it’s too early to say that at this juncture. But that’s just me.   And I’m fine with a warning event too.  Long way to go here still. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Imo it’s too early to say that at this juncture. But that’s just me.   And I’m fine with a warning event too.  Long way to go here still. 

Yep.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS and EPS look fairly similar.

 

[TheMainer]

I really hope this starts tucking back in towards Maine instead of exiting stage right, our snowmobiling related businesses are suffering bad up here with a complete crap season. This is the latest we haven't groomed in a season since at least the 90s, neighboring club has but they have a RR bed and we don't.

[mahk_webstah]

The runs this day will give us some answers. I think everything is onshore today and we are 72 hours out.  I have no clue but am anticipating3-6 here

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

I really hope this starts tucking back in towards Maine instead of exiting stage right, our snowmobiling related businesses are suffering bad up here with a complete crap season. This is the latest we haven't groomed in a season since at least the 90s, neighboring club has but they have a RR bed and we don't.

The pandemic has hit local bizz hard so if snow can help offset it, I’m all for it. GL up there, LFG!

[ORH_wxman]

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

[dryslot]

What a morgue in here, lol, Other then the Euro, It looks like models overnight ticked back NW some, We shall see what today brings,  We should have a good idea i think by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow where this is going.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

As long as the hook is modelled I have hope, because then small adjustments north and west have big impacts, and the location of a deformation band gets interesting.  Is it still a big wide h5 with expansive precipq?

 

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

is it game on, or game over?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a morgue in here, lol, Other then the Euro, It looks like models overnight ticked back NW some, We shall see what today brings,  We should have a good idea i think by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow where this is going.

It’s brutal. One look at inflow Jerry posted was all any New Englander needed to see 

[dryslot]

Far from over when your still 90 hrs out

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

What are your thoughts on the storm.

In one "camp" u have the EURO with the wide right scenario.

In the other camp you have GFS V.16 ukmet and Canadian with a more tucked scenario.

EURO obviously gets higher weight. However being on its own has to be a red flag.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Far from over when your still 90 hrs out

As long as there is no clear strong feature to continue the s and e trend, I will go with climo n and w trends and better baroclinity further north.

[EastonSN+]

I wake up and this is model numbers for SW CT.

CMC - 17

GFSv.16 - 12

UKMET - 5

EURO - 2

I guess forecast of 2 to 17 at this point works.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s brutal. One look at inflow Jerry posted was all any New Englander needed to see 

Yeah, I don't know why some are ready to throw in the towel, We are a good 78-84hrs out from first flakes in CT, A good 12-18 hrs to go on the models for trends.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

What are your thoughts on the storm.

In one "camp" u have the EURO with the wide right scenario.

In the other camp you have GFS V.16 ukmet and Canadian with a more tucked scenario.

EURO obviously gets higher weight. However being on its own has to be a red flag.

Being on its own didn’t pan out in Jan 15 but it will here...eveything is slowly sinking south. ENE looks good though. We need the ull to lift out of here asap for a big impact. It can happen, sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

Our own FXWX

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Being on its own didn’t pan out in Jan 15 but it will here...eveything is slowly sinking south. ENE looks good though. We need the ull to lift out of here asap for a big impact. It can happen, sure.

I do feel a south trend but not sold on a hook to eastern areas YET (at least not the 2 foot type) I still think something similar to the below.... Which is similar somewhat to UKMET V.16

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I do feel a south trend but not sold on a hook to eastern areas YET (at least not the 2 foot type) I still think something similar to the below.... Which is similar somewhat to UKMET V.16

 

 

What is that

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Our own FXWX

 

Well, as long as Johnny Bagadonuts is on board. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wake up and this is model numbers for SW CT.

CMC - 17

GFSv.16 - 12

UKMET - 5

EURO - 2

I guess forecast of 2 to 17 at this point works.

The Minor leagues are on our side.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

What is that

Feb 9 through 11 2010. Last time blocking was this strong.

[CoastalWx]

The wide right and hook is certainly valid given the ULL look. But it’s also too early to speculate. It could tuck in towards ACU too is the ULL elogantes more SSW-NNW.  People get way too attached to op run swings. 

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

As long as there is no clear strong feature to continue the s and e trend, I will go with climo n and w trends and better baroclinity further north.

The ull that's coming thru here today is playing a roll on upstream conditions at present that's affecting our system for the 1st, That's what needs to be watched.