Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[weathafella]

Narrowing goal posts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Say what you want about that map, it is never too cold on thermals, unless the model itself is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Second best model strikes again.

If you take the mean of 12z over Bermuda, and 00z over NH, its right where it should be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Can someone post the UK QPF map?

[78Blizzard]

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL .01" in the CTRV.....hey, Dec 1992 dropped like 2" of snow there in Springfield...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the GEM and Ukie are stalling it further north now...that little capture and tug NW was down by Norfolk, then the Delmarva, now its near NYC.

[Henry's Weather]

Ukie and GEM are 1-2 feet verbatim for i-95, yes?

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO kinda blows.

Night.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO is awful.

NYC peeps sure won't like it, lol.

[78Blizzard]

I'm sorry I stayed up for this.  Good night all.

[78Blizzard]

One last look showed an enhancement late for SE MA, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm sorry I stayed up for this.  Good night all.

I'm not worried too much about it....subtle phasing nuance. Not as much N Stream insert, so less vort...track essentially the same, maybe a hair east.

 

[weathafella]

I’ll take the euro.   Long slow fetch.

[78Blizzard]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

I’ll take the euro.   Long slow fetch.

CJ parade. Its not a disaster, but I have higher hopes.

[WeatherWilly]

and back to a cape scraper

[CCHurricane]

Understanding how unlikely this EURO output is, we'd be looking at a 54 hour snowfall event for SE MASS.

First shot would be from 0z to 12z Tuesday, with a brief letup in precip intensity, and then a decent pickup with the north wind / ocean enhancement from 6z to 12z on Wednesday.

[weathafella]

You’re all qpf queens.  Look at this 850 inflow.   
 

 

[weathafella]

H7

 

 

[weathafella]

H5

 

 

[Greg]

Get this sucker just about 80 miles north and we're in business.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Get this sucker just about 80 miles north and we're in business.

 

[Greg]

I meant based on it's redevelopment along the coastline. What you guys want to see is the primary jet out of Colorado and die in western PA, not southeastern Ohio/West Virginia. The reflection then should develop further over the southeastern Delmarva. That's what you want to see.

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, Greg said:

I meant based on it's redevelopment along the coastline. What you guys want to see is the primary jet out of Colorado and die in western PA, not southeastern Ohio. The reflection then should develop further over the Delmarva. That's what you want to see.

Disagree.   OV primary with redevelopment over Hatteras has produced some of the classic big ones I’ve seen.  The most notable is 12/11-12, 1960.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You’re all qpf queens.  Look at this 850 inflow.   
 

 

No complaints

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

You’re all qpf queens.  Look at this 850 inflow.   
 

 

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

[The 4 Seasons]

Top analogs for F096 on the GFS. Jan 15 and Jan 16 both in the top 3. Not really surprising given the southern and eastern focus on that particular run. Mean snowfall for the top 15 analogs shows widespread warning snowfall (8+) for the majority of SNE with 60-70% of them exceeding 6" over a good chunk of CT/RI/MA. 

Take it for what its worth, considering its just based on one op run of a not so great model. 

 

[MJO812]

Para