Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Bostonseminole]

cmc would be fun.. also a little wind mixed in

[RDRY]

NYC

GFS -- 7-8

GGEM -- 24-26

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One hell of an omega thump.

Ya it is. I’m not banking on the back end , so this is what I wanted to see. A hellacious front end thump.  Now it just needs some model support.

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Probably should let the misses know...........

She’s spiking the juice...lol

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

NYC

GFS -- 7-8

GGEM -- 24-26

dude.. at least post a SNE site..

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

NYC

GFS -- 7-8

GGEM -- 24-26

Wrong amounts on the gfs but wrong thread

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

CMC blows its load down toward NYC and then again in Maine... nice storm in between still... but not epic.

Also... lot of mixing issues on the CMC south of Boston this run.

[Go Kart Mozart]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

We take that. 

 

[RDRY]

4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

dude.. at least post a SNE site..

Heh. Just thought that was the perfect representation of model chaos.

[78Blizzard]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CMC blows its load down toward NYC and then again in Maine... nice storm in between still... but not epic.

Also... lot of mixing issues on the CMC south of Boston this run.

Lots of mixing in E ME, too.  I don't see this verifying, sorry NYC peeps.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I still maintain there will be mixing issues here. Not saying we won’t have snow, but I think south of Boston is going to be a sloppy mess in this setup 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is like a 6-10hr thump and then light stuff.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Lots of mixing in E ME, too.  I don't see this verifying, sorry NYC peeps.

Just another solution.... but like I’ve said, mix is in play foe the usual suspects.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Lots of mixing in E ME, too.  I don't see this verifying, sorry NYC peeps.

Uh?

[MJO812]

Para

[Sn0waddict]

Para has been pretty consistent with a SNE jackpot. Curious to see who comes out on top considering it’s counterpart (gfs) has not been so kind to us. 

[WeatherWilly]

Sign me up for that, Scotty.

[78Blizzard]

CMC gets the 850 line up to Tippy and SE NH.  Don't see that happening.  The GFS barely gets it up to the canal.

[PhineasC]

Would much rather see a CMC solution than some weak sauce low that slides east under SNE into oblivion like the v16.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Would much rather see a CMC solution than some weak sauce low that slides east under SNE into oblivion like the v16.

Both GFS's have been south.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Would much rather see a CMC solution than some weak sauce low that slides east under SNE into oblivion like the v16.

I'm great with either one!!!

[78Blizzard]

Ukie went way west this run.  Drops over 1.5" qpf here with just 3" of snow.  Upper levels cold, surface temps in mid 30's.  Haven't they heard of dynamic cooling, lol.  Like the GFS, the 850 line and the 925 line don't make it to the canal.

[Sn0waddict]

Ukie not surprisingly way north of 12z. Great for EMA actually. Decent for the rest of SNE.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Something is up..... snowmap I have does not jive with what I read on here about the Canadian....that doesn't look like an E MA minimum to me....

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am  fine with that CMC run....people made it sound like it was 8".

[Sn0waddict]

Ray at least on TT the thermals show rain because temps are in the mid-upper 30s. If soundings support snow then that map would be right because it’s not due to a lack of precip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Ukie went way west this run.  Drops over 1.5" qpf here with just 3" of snow.  Upper levels cold, surface temps in mid 30's.  Haven't they heard of dynamic cooling, lol.  Like the GFS, the 850 line and the 925 line don't make it to the canal.

Toss those thermals...congrats on 15-20" on the Ukie.

[78Blizzard]

These various maps seem to have their own thermals that determines whether the qpf falls as rain or snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Ray at least on TT the thermals show rain because temps are in the mid-upper 30s. If soundings support snow then that map would be right because it’s not due to a lack of precip.

Okay....TT is wrong.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ukie not surprisingly way north of 12z. Great for EMA actually. Decent for the rest of SNE.   

Second best model strikes again.