Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The synoptics of the 12z Euro run I think would provide pretty high end potential. Any time you get that firehose look and then a stall as it rejuvenates with that big CCB/deformation....you have to be aware of it. A place like ORH gets firehosed for 15-18 hours on that run and then also gets deformed for another 6-8....that's a high end look.

Now that look may not verify....obviously....we're still 4.5-5 days out from the meat of it.

Probably tomorrow we start to pass the baton from ensembles to OPs...getting close. Have to start weighing them more heavily.

[Typhoon Tip]

actually... ( to me ) the coarse product at PSU that shows the 500 mb and the sfc evolution looks perfect for snow enthusiasts - a low moves between CC and the BM, with closed heights falling deeper as just on the western arc ...?  That's a pummeling for all SNE 10 years ago before access to all this electronic laser show brighter than the thunderstorms they cover became available -.

I almost wonder if some horse-blinders may be a good thing - perhaps a microchip installed in the heads of the standardized engagement level users. In nano-time, this device pings back and forth to critical fiber node of the web upon mouse clicks, IDs the user, then ... instead of loading a nuance idiosyncratic image that launches a thousand ships,

"We're sorry, you have been designated suitable for prevention of knee-jerk reactionary bias. Please, this is for your own protection. Error code: XCD000001"  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It is what it is. Maybe this was a blurp run for WOR folk but I don’t think so because it’s not like it came out of nowhere. The hints have been there on the eps members for a few cycles. 

We’ll see...long ways to go.

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

H7:

 

Deform over the valley like that could help the initial east flow downsloping issues 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The synoptics of the 12z Euro run I think would provide pretty high end potential. Any time you get that firehose look and then a stall as it rejuvenates with that big CCB/deformation....you have to be aware of it. A place like ORH gets firehosed for 15-18 hours on that run and then also gets deformed for another 6-8....that's a high end look.

Now that look may not verify....obviously....we're still 4.5-5 days out from the meat of it.

Ah ... you're a bigger man than I - I choose instead to impugn an entire throng of users in one fowl swoop snark post ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Deform over the valley like that could help the initial east flow downsloping issues 

Its east of the valley.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its east of the valley.

That look has the deform from NH Sw thru ORH down the valley to HVN

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That look has the deform from NH Sw thru ORH down the valley to HVN

No....its ORH down through Union and into Steve's area.

[Hoth]

Getting strong March '18 vibes from this one now. Gonna expect about 3" and hope we sneak 6. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No....its ORH down through Union and into Steve's area.

No. At any rate track the mid level vort if you want Jack . Remember Dec 17 what was “modeled” and what actually “ happened”

[MaineJayhawk]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That look has the deform from NH Sw thru ORH down the valley to HVN

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No....its ORH down through Union and into Steve's area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, delusion is bliss.

 

It may not even track that far east, who knows...

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

 

The dude wants the Jack so badly , perception becomes clouded 

[PWMan]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Wish I could un-see that. Too many model runs left!

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No....its ORH down through Union and into Steve's area.

1 27 15

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The dude wants the Jack so badly , perception becomes clouded 

Apparently I moved into Steve's dog house, or into Will's place in Winter Hill...

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Wish I could un-see that. Too many model runs left!

One consolation is that temps should not be an issue up here, That looks like a lock.

[Go Kart Mozart]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It is what it is. Maybe this was a blurp run for WOR folk but I don’t think so because it’s not like it came out of nowhere. The hints have been there on the eps members for a few cycles. 

We’ll see...long ways to go.

I feel it too, we've seen this happen to western CT many times before.  But....the best weenie bands often show up where they were not modelled.  Case in point, December 16th, my friend in Grantham, NH, a former pro forecaster, was hoping to get some accumulating snow...he got 38".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1 27 15

This is what us west of the river are afraid of. When that shot up the board on the analog list, I Immediately grabbed my son’s crayons and snapped them in half...all of them.

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean my god -

I can admit ... if this was say 15 years ago in more primitive graphics and/or accessibility time, that 120 and 144 hour toggle click at PSU would have pants pooping... 

It really argues for another 6 hours book-ending that differential at PSU's exposure, too.

120 already has an extraordinarily longitudinally deep easterly fetch, on going, with an actual - albeit modest but enough ... - polar high N-Ne of Maine, feeding cold into the mixing of that jet.  

But now..in this "event run-up relative modernity" ...this type of shitting isn't required?    It's not different - I mean back then if that showed?  we snowed. 

Nope ..not now, every stinking p.o.s. piece of app crap has to indicate armeggeddon or it's all a lost cause ...  fascinating

Anyway, what are the Tides ?? Steve??   who has those.   You can't just google those - people try to horde info for profits now because they have no usefulness to human kind.  C'mon, tide calendars now and moon data for petty pennies ... 'Buy now, 9.99 for the years' spring tides' - I'm like ... humanity deserves a f'n comet impact man or a pandemic or something - oh wait

That sucker on that oper. Euro looks big and deep and ominous and enough so in both regards to get even a normal tide cycle up onto shore roads and hurling small boulders.

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean my god -

I can admit ... if this was say 15 years ago in more primitive graphics and/or accessibility time, that 120 and 144 hour toggle click at PSU would have pants pooping... 

It really argues for another 6 hours book-ending that differential at PSU's exposure, too.

120 already has an extraordinarily longitudinally deep easterly fetch, on going, with an actual - albeit modest but enough ... - polar high N-Ne of Maine, feeding cold into the mixing of that jet.  

But now..in this "event run-up relative modernity" ...this type of shitting isn't required?    It's not different - I mean back then if that showed?  we snowed. 

Nope ..not now, every stinking p.o.s. piece of app crap has to indicate armeggeddon or it's all a lost cause ...  fascinating

Anyway, what are the Tides ?? Steve??   who has those.   You can't just google those - people try to horde info for profits now because they have no usefulness to human kind.  C'mon, tide calendars now and moon data for petty pennies ... 'Buy now, 9.99 for the years' spring tides' - I'm like ... humanity deserves a f'n comet impact man or a pandemic or something - oh wait

That sucker on that oper. Euro looks big and deep and ominous and enough so in both regards to get even a normal tide cycle up onto shore roads and hurling small boulders.

 

 

There are times that I wish we didn't have models, satellites, etc.  Just hand drawn maps based on upstream observations, the smell of the air, changes in wind, and horse sense.  Thinking back to my childhood in the 60s, surprise storms were the best.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I feel it too, we've seen this happen to western CT many times before.  But....the best weenie bands often show up where they were not modelled.  Case in point, December 16th, my friend in Grantham, NH, a former pro forecaster, was hoping to get some accumulating snow...he got 38".

We can only hunt and pray at this point. It’s good to get the board hopping again though, far removed from the January tantrums that consumed so many...so regardless what happens in our backyards, it’s great to see winter again. 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is what us west of the river are afraid of. When that shot up the board on the analog list, I Immediately grabbed my son’s crayons and snapped them in half...all of them.

Did you eat them after? Or just smash them into the new bathroom floor?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Did you eat them after? Or just smash them into the new bathroom floor?

From the look of the posts today, Kev ate them.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, dryslot said:

Did you eat them after? Or just smash them into the new bathroom floor?

Melted them and dipped his fingers in?

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We can only hunt and pray at this point. It’s good to get the board hopping again though, far removed from the January tantrums that consumed so many...so regardless what happens in our backyards, it’s great to see winter again. 

Hope for 6 at this point...I think our area needs to wait until at least the Nam is dumping feet to our south to know which way this might go and hopefully the look that NYC and points south has right now shifts enough north to hit us, because we all know what will happen if it does not....2015 all over again

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Did you eat them after? Or just smash them into the new bathroom floor?

I threw them against the wall scattered so he can see how not to behave as an adult. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Melted them and dipped his fingers in?

And then rubbed the walls around the house...wife blames the kids, until she sees my hands. Oops.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I threw them against the wall scattered so he can see how not to behave as an adult. 

Explain to him its better then daddy throwing the remote thru the tv, Crayons are inexpensive.

[SJonesWX]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyway, what are the Tides ?? Steve??   who has those.   You can't just google those - people try to horde info for profits now because they have no usefulness to human kind.  C'mon, tide calendars now and moon data for petty pennies ... 'Buy now, 9.99 for the years' spring tides' - I'm like ... humanity deserves a f'n comet impact man or a pandemic or something - oh wait

That sucker on that oper. Euro looks big and deep and ominous and enough so in both regards to get even a normal tide cycle up onto shore roads and hurling small boulders.

 

 

are you sure have you tried google? i mean, i just found weekly and monthly tide charts for Boston in about 0.3 seconds. didn't cost me a dime.