Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is the 12z EURO snowfall map with actual deformation zone encircled....this is where some 18-20" amounts may verify based on this run given H7 track.

Probably wouldn't be as much subby east of it, as there normally may be due to 850 inflow, but I would not want to be west of it, looking in from the CTRV....subsidence+deformation may equal some single digits.

H7:

 

[CarverWX]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is the 12z EURO snowfall map with actual deformation zone encircled....this is where some 18-20" amounts may verify based on this run given H7 track.

 

Why do those maps always show less snow for the south shore? Are they unable to handle the thermals in this area?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CarverWX said:

Why do those maps always show less snow for the south shore? Are they unable to handle the thermals in this area?

I think it can overdo it right at the coast and on the cape, yes.

Check the soundings to be sure..but its a good 6-10" even on the cape...that sounds reasonable.

It was too warm for yesterday's event down there.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait ... i thought we already explained the CD ....  Is this for a different conversation ?  now I'm confused...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Very nice run for ENE. Congrats folks. The goalposts are narrowing.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro a solid 8-12 here... we take 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait ... i thought we already explained the CD ....  Is this for a different conversation ?  now I'm confused...

It looks like the head is ticking Steve's chinny chin-chin O:

[toller65]

Here is the 12z EURO snowfall map with actual deformation zone encircled....this is where some 18-20" amounts may verify based on this run given H7 track.
Probably wouldn't be as much subby east of it, as there normally may be due to 850 inflow, but I would not want to be west of it, looking in from the CTRV....subsidence+deformation may equal some single digits.

Could you give us a peek at ME/NH/VT? Gracias

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks like the head is ticking Steve's chinny chin-chin O:

Looks good for Union and Staffordville

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, toller65 said:

Could you give us a peek at ME/NH/VT? Gracias

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

 

[ariof]

10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

not to be a weenie but I think that run would be like 15-25"+ verbatim for ENE based on H5 track and speed.

Plus terrain enhancement, could push 30" along the Wapack Trail

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Quite a bit colder this Euro run than the 0z.  Surface temps in the upper 20's for most of it instead of above freezing in many areas.

Yeah...it's pretty clearly owing to the total E repositioning over prior runs that may have intruded modest WAA .... I didn't look very close at it honestly, but when Will said 'East' and hour ago the first thing that popped to mind - for some reason - was that the it was too mild to begin with in previous and now corrects colder/more BL resistance, but it appears to be more just the E adjusting. 

We're backing the CCB head more there ( ...oh god I'm getting hit for that statement now ... ) but it's pulling more NNE critical wind direction compared to the ENE wind  from before in the surface to 1300 m. I think when we get a couple more days in the books and start with details...this is the kind of aspect that will spark spirited CF tedium enough to inspire Rainman to put down the Telephone book -

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS is a hair more subdued than 06z, and also shifted se a tad...

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Somebody mentioned it i think yesterday that if this ended up a bit east it would not be a bad thing.

you knew eventually that you'd be in this game bigly

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Eps weaker and se.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[WeatherX]

Pretty big cut back from the 0z run

 

 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eps weaker and se.

Following the Ukie?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

you knew eventually that you'd be in this game bigly

Yeah, I think i mentioned it 10 days ago..........lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yup. She’s slipping for the west folk.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS is a hair more subdued than 06z, and also shifted se a tad...

More of ENE look

 

[Typhoon Tip]

So... do we have time to couch a complete unilateral model whiff and thread abandonment prior to another Boxing day hypocrisy rebirth of interest between now and next Monday night - that's the question...

Actually, in all seriousness ( except when I'm not - ), I don't think this thing can 'wiggle' farther east than it has, wihout the hemisphere at large changing floor plans. If the latter does... meh, we don't have control over that.

This isn't the same thing as a needle thread scenario. It is a broad tropospheric supporting parental structure and just like liberals...they give their kids lots of room to play.  So the runs are having fun in the bounce house.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Maybe I’m crazy... but I think the “blockbuster” potential is pretty limited. This could be a nice storm; but I don’t think it’ll rival any greats. Could be a solid foot for a lot of folks though 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks good for Union and Staffordville

Looks like a decent setup for Tolland to be choking on exhaust from the Union-ORH band.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So... do we have time to couch a complete unilateral model whiff and thread abandonment prior to another Boxing day hypocrisy rebirth of interest between next Monday night - that's the question...

Actually, in all seriousness ( except when I'm not - ), I don't think this thing can 'wiggle' farther east than it has, wihout the hemisphere at large changing floor plans.

This isn't the same thing as a needle thread scenario. It is a broad tropospheric supporting parental structure and just like liberals...they give their kids lots of room to play.  So the runs are having fun in the bounce house.

Yea, no worries about a whiff or graze.

Moderator impactor, okay..

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a decent setup for Tolland to be choking on exhaust from the Union-ORH band.

All kidding aside... his area is literally in a relative min on most guidance... it’s pretty clear. Who knows if that works out... but it’s certainly plausible... especially if this gets its act together further East.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Following the Ukie?

 Not sure but there’s been a subtle trend I’ve noticed past several cycles of first load being blown further and further se in the mid atl before it dumbells around with a secondary maxe for ENE. That’s not the look you want for WCT and points north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Following the Ukie?

No.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe I’m crazy... but I think the “blockbuster” potential is pretty limited. This could be a nice storm; but I don’t think it’ll rival any greats. Could be a solid foot for a lot of folks though 

The synoptics of the 12z Euro run I think would provide pretty high end potential. Any time you get that firehose look and then a stall as it rejuvenates with that big CCB/deformation....you have to be aware of it. A place like ORH gets firehosed for 15-18 hours on that run and then also gets deformed for another 6-8....that's a high end look.

Now that look may not verify....obviously....we're still 4.5-5 days out from the meat of it.

[WeatherX]

Shrinkage in a couple different ways