Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[CoastalWx]

So much for that myth of euro following Ukie. Nice deffy band into SNH.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Even CT?

CT does fine, but they don't get the brunt...the low rejuvenates further east and hammers E MA up into E NH/S ME

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

CT does fine, but they don't get the brunt...the low rejuvenates further east and hammers E MA up into E NH/S ME

Fake post?

[dryslot]

8-12" for many and 12-18" for eastern areas.

[dendrite]

Hooooooose, in different area codes

[RDRY]

This Euro run doesn't have the dry slot from hell. The initial fronto band looks less impressive, but at least it doesn't fly right through. Eastern NE really cleans up.

[CoastalWx]

There's some hose in this house.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

I got you Tip. I may have misunderstood your use of the cosmic in previous Tip posts

12z GGEM Ensemble looks pretty good IMO

 

 

probably should use the expression sparingly?  just a hunch... lol - 

It's basically like,  take two people:

both are born with the exact same IQ ... exact same good looks .... exact same wherewithal in terms of family legacy/securities ... with no guiding genetically differing markers to suggest substantially different health, mentally or physically...

one ends up a CEO

the other in prison

Guess who was the proud recipient of the CD ? 

It's just when fractals ...chaos... the unforeseeable forces just contributed, badly.  ...Usually, insidiously too ...like one does not know it ... and then of course the world "gets to" blame the person for all their mistakes too - and since there's no way to advocate for the thusly persecuted, their iniquity is forever unsung, and the CD has its orgasm. 

Sometimes ... you can do no wrong, and just lose. 

Everything that exist in nature has a degree of unpredictability to it's outcome:  both positive ... and negative ( relative to perspective ).   Yet another example to elucidate the CD-effect:  ... do you know what the word synergy means?  The word synergistic follows ..and refers to when an interaction of elements produces an effect that is greater than the effect that would have resulted from simply adding up the effects of each individual element.   So, that does not guarantee that 10 input goodies ends up making something super great... It just means greater than the sum of the contributing parts.   The CD is when those elements all seemingy good ... butt-f* the hell out out of the well-intended - get it...

That concludes this vastly inappropriate sermon for this particular thread's intents and purposes...   And is also not to be taken seriously...  haha

[CoastalWx]

Hi res definitely deformed central MA into NH including ern CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

Qpf map gives S and E Of CTRV about same as E Ma other than the valley shadow. 
 

Not “fake”

[dryslot]

Somebody mentioned it i think yesterday that if this ended up a bit east it would not be a bad thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably should use the expression sparingly?  just a hunh... lol - 

It's basically like,  take two people:

both are born with the exact same IQ ... exact same good looks .... exact same wherewithal in terms of family legacy/securities ... with no guiding genetically differing markers to suggest substantially different health, mentally or physically...

one ends up a CEO

the other in prison

Guess who was the proud recipient of the CD ? 

It's just when fractals ...chaos... the unforeseeable forces just contributed, badly.  ...Usually, insidiously too ...like one does not know it ... and then of course the world "gets to" blame the person for all their mistakes too - and since there's no way to advocate for the thusly persecuted, their iniquity is forever unsung, and the CD has its orgasm. 

Sometimes ... you can do no wrong, and just lose. 

Everything that exist in nature has a degree of unpredictability to it's outcome:  both positive ... and negative ( relative to perspective ).   Yet another example to elucidate the CD-effect:  ... do you know what the word synergy means?  The word synergistic follows ..and refers to when an interaction of elements produces an effect that is greater than the effect that would have resulted from simply adding up the effects of each individual element.   So, that does not guarantee that 10 input goodies ends up making something super great... It just means greater than the sum of the contributing parts.   The CD is when those elements all seemingy good ... butt-f* the hell out out of the well-intended - get it...

That concludes this vastly inappropriate sermon for this particular thread's intents and purposes...   And is also not to be taken seriously...  haha

Think some may conclude that it has to do with luck?

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting .. but this system is straddling the verification timing  - the models tend to 'get better' beginning around D4.5, but this is just setting up .. where those crucial times are in the grayer area later Tuesday  -

longer duration ftl I suppose. 

But the Euro now has had distracting continuity of this nature across three consecutive runs so... looks like model 'giga' motions to me.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Somebody mentioned it i think yesterday that if this ended up a bit east it would not be a bad thing.

Will and I were saying that because the trough is so broad.

[ORH_wxman]

Prob a Foxoborough to MQE jack this run....east ORH hills prob also given the synoptics there.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Think some may conclude that it has to do with luck?

mm yeeeah,   ...luck with one helluva twist of hidden irony that hides the unfairness of the thing - but yeah..

ha, I dunno - it's a joke

[wxeyeNH]

Impressive Euro run.  energy rejuvenates low and at least east portions of NNE get in on the action but we are still days and days out and many many model runs to go.

[natedizel]

I know it's early but any estimated start times for SNE?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will and I were saying that because the trough is so broad.

The qpf field becomes quite expansive so it really spreads the wealth over the region.

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

120 hrs

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So much for that myth of euro following Ukie. Nice deffy band into SNH.

Heh .. I know what you mean, but it did 'go east' ...at least some.

In principle the assertion was met this time.

That said, I've seen the UKM and Euro part company enough anyway to know that's rube-cackle among the mid-evil courtyard rumor mill anyway, just sayn'

[78Blizzard]

850 line barely makes it to the outer cape, and the 925 never gets there.

[Chrisrotary12]

Well that Euro run was basically a best case scenario. 

[WeatherX]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably should use the expression sparingly?  just a hunch... lol - 

It's basically like,  take two people:

both are born with the exact same IQ ... exact same good looks .... exact same wherewithal in terms of family legacy/securities ... with no guiding genetically differing markers to suggest substantially different health, mentally or physically...

one ends up a CEO

the other in prison

Guess who was the proud recipient of the CD ? 

It's just when fractals ...chaos... the unforeseeable forces just contributed, badly.  ...Usually, insidiously too ...like one does not know it ... and then of course the world "gets to" blame the person for all their mistakes too - and since there's no way to advocate for the thusly persecuted, their iniquity is forever unsung, and the CD has its orgasm. 

Sometimes ... you can do no wrong, and just lose. 

Everything that exist in nature has a degree of unpredictability to it's outcome:  both positive ... and negative ( relative to perspective ).   Yet another example to elucidate the CD-effect:  ... do you know what the word synergy means?  The word synergistic follows ..and refers to when an interaction of elements produces an effect that is greater than the effect that would have resulted from simply adding up the effects of each individual element.   So, that does not guarantee that 10 input goodies ends up making something super great... It just means greater than the sum of the contributing parts.   The CD is when those elements all seemingy good ... butt-f* the hell out out of the well-intended - get it...

That concludes this vastly inappropriate sermon for this particular thread's intents and purposes...   And is also not to be taken seriously...  haha

My Tip decoder suggests humor and also material for the eventual weather novel  You sniffed this one out from long range yet again, nice work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is the 12z EURO snowfall map with actual deformation zone encircled....this is where some 18-20" amounts may verify based on this run given H7 track.

Probably wouldn't be as much subby east of it, as there normally may be due to 850 inflow, but I would not want to be west of it, looking in from the CTRV....subsidence+deformation may equal some single digits.

[Sn0waddict]

Would feel a lot better about this in CT if we could get that front end thump to push further north. I have some fear of a CT hole like Ray has been mentioning. Eh we shall see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Would feel a lot better about this in CT if we could get that front end thump to push further north. I have some fear of a CT hole like Ray has been mentioning. Eh we shall see.

I would only worry right in the valley.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, natedizel said:

I know it's early but any estimated start times for SNE?

man ..at a glance I thought your handle there said 'Nazi' ... double-take, whaaa

Looks like slow movement on the radar type of overtake to me.  I could see it walled off and S in NYC up to Danbury CT 12z Monday morning... while Kevin watches virga undulations and a radar saying he's under the N edge..  And as you loop it ...it's inching NE such that 6 hours later, the same has then aligned between Rt 2 and the Pike ... then S NH by nightfall.  Within the shield the echoes pretty solid in that initial burst... might even be hints where small embedded pixel clusters at slightly higher level rad beginning move more NW...  Good mood abounds while - hopefully - James is raining ... 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is the 12z EURO snowfall map with actual deformation zone encircled....this is where some 18-20" amounts may verify based on this run given H7 track.

Probably wouldn't be as much subby east of it, as there normally may be due to 850 inflow, but I would not want to be west of it, looking in from the CTRV....subsidence+deformation may equal some single digits.

not to be a weenie but I think that run would be like 15-25"+ verbatim for ENE based on H5 track and speed.

[78Blizzard]

Quite a bit colder this Euro run than the 0z.  Surface temps in the upper 20's for most of it instead of above freezing in many areas.