Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 Crushed.

[Bostonseminole]

just hours after hours of moisture coming in from the atlantic

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

GFS crawling with the low

Just like every model.  Gfs is very disorganized but still puts out alot of snow.

[powderfreak]

Banded.  Pretty good wall of water coming ashore on this run.

[Bostonseminole]

but definitely not as good at h5 as 18z as far as I can tell

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Don’t sweat the deets yet. Slow moving and juicy...just keep it in the strike zone.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro kicked in 18z yesterday with that exquisite snow production/cross-sectional jets appeal and every model keeps hitting that ever since. Even the ICON sells that perfect slabbing
 

incredible consistency for that specificity. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Banded.  Pretty good wall of water coming ashore on this run.

Reminds me of April ‘97

[Bostonseminole]

only 100 more hrs till the 84hr NAM prints 50" of snow somewhere

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hmmm I’m just gonna take The scooter approach and not get my hopes up ....but praying models show continuity for 50-60 more hours 

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s just missing that small amount of addition jet mechanics ... but it’s not anywhere close to a range where that matters. 

rule of time-dependency in the uncertainty term ... you don’t want perfection beyond 120 hrs.
 

You want hints of perfection

This is an entire situation where the sensitivity is more focused in the actual shortwave(s) dumping into ...the surrounding medium, which has been consistently modeled with those previously discussed synoptic and super synoptic constraints.

I think it’s possible that this gets a little bit more beef as we get closer and get more sampling. And said surrounding medium is so favorable for amplification due to constructive interference that if even a little more shortwave mechanics get dumped and you’re going to get a disproportionately bigger payback ...that’s the way synergy works. Rogue wave complexity 

[TalcottWx]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hmmm I’m just gonna take The scooter approach and not get my hopes up ....but praying models show continuity for 50-60 more hours 

Wise

[PhineasC]

v16 huge change from 18z. Brings nearly an inch of liquid here now.

[ineedsnow]

CMC looking fun

[RDRY]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC looking fun

That run was obscene. The storm parks itself over the benchmark for three days while energy just keeps dropping in.

[MJO812]

Cmc

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Snowy period has begun.  Next week looks game on for the interior. 

[TalcottWx]

I lean MA hit but occlusion concerns up here. Doesn't matter. Interior gets pounded.

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Icon looked like 1-2’ regionwide, practically the entire northeast, then crushes Maine with 2-3’.

This is the equivalent of the old DGEX model, lol.  When was the last time any tv met ever referred to it?

[78Blizzard]

Looks like Ukie could be a whiff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I deserve a few buns for this.....haven't compared charts, but this reminds me of a colder version of Dec 1992. Obviously not expecting 4" of QPF or near record coastal flooding, but wow...

[weathafella]

We’ve seen these over the many decades some of us have been alive.  This could be the defining event of the winter of 2020-21.  And don’t forget how cold a foundation will be laid over the weekend.  Couldn’t ask for a better antecedent airmass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks like Ukie could be a whiff.

Ukie has been flukie....awful season.

Tossed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My early pick for spot in SNE that you don't want to be for this.....CTRV. Easterly fetch is no bueno...downslope hell.

Places to be.....east slopes of ORH hills and honorable mention to interior NE MA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This looks nearly as good as can be at this point, but my guard will be up for the rug to be pulled up until I breech the pack with yard stick in hand. I know why the usual fast flow of nina that often plagues our chances for big events may not be applicable in this case, but I'll still believe it when I see it. No issue with a 6-12", 8-14" type deal, but this ceiling potential is always hard to attain, anyway, NVM during a mod la nina.

[weathafella]

Well the op was close but not close enough but the eps was way better-I dare say epic!

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well the op was close but not close enough but the eps was way better-I dare say epic!

It is.

[moneypitmike]

Just what we want 6 days out. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro op was a weak whiff except for far east zones but eps violenty disagrees:

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie and Euro op suppressed and misses. Probably a good thing at this point .