Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Bostonseminole]

Gfs looks good, profiles have improved also..does not drive that 32 line that far north and 925 held down mostly in extreme SE zones and cape, might get some mixing up to south shore.. but looks good up here

[Typhoon Tip]

It occurs to me looking over this 12z ICON ...which I'll use to demo a discussion point(s) because I'm detecting it also among all the other guidance, frankly.

It has to do with the handling of the mid .. U/A closing features wrt to the surface reflection ... 

The 12z Tuesday position of all illustrates a deep layer quasi closing 500 mb center that is well west of an broadly opened pressure basin ... That open space appears to have several meso-beta-scaled lows whirling around inside an open region. 

That is not a captured low ...  That schism is typical of a systemic detachment.  It could be convective over selling... But, a stronger, deeper closing 500 mb ( deeper than struggling beneath 540 dm), would do wonders to focus.

Frankly, this system still looks like it has from the get go to me - a protracted moderate winter storm, and I do think it snows more than rains west of the immediate climo coastal zones...  Obviously across the life-cycle, pulse or two of isolated heavy cannot be ruled out..but the by-and-large distinction is not a major player.  

It is, however, possible to approach major impact by virtue of duration culminating - that's the storm zealot/enthusiasts best pathway to salvation the way this stands now.

What needs to improve to bring irresponsible lust for destruction and dystopia over the top ( lol ):   

This also still is a whopper hemispherically supportive scaffolding, in the sense that the +PNAP ( and by the way ... the PNA looks now more properly involved, and that makes this whole ordeal more H.A. in nature ..) is blossoming western heights, while a vestigial/collapsing -NAO westerly limb blocking node is pivoting SE through the lower Maritime region. That is pinning a neggie node near us...  What is somewhat lacking in all this, is that in situ S/W mechanical feed-in isn't ( thus far in guidance ..) nearly as equally impressive. 

 

[Bostonseminole]

500 looks better also.. closes off a little too far north still imo

[Sn0waddict]

Lost the front end thump and then just looks like a disorganized mess.. at least that how to looked to me. But I’m not an expert.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

How much?

1.5 buns. It does recover to give EMAATT what it deserves. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It occurs to me looking over this 12z ICON ...which I'll use to demo a discussion point(s) because I'm detecting it also among all the other guidance, frankly.

It has to do with the handling of the mid .. U/A closing features wrt to the surface reflection ... 

The 12z Tuesday position of all illustrates a deep layer quasi closing 500 mb center that is well west of an broadly opened pressure basin ... That open space appears to have several meso-beta-scaled lows whirling around inside an open region. 

That is not a captured low ...  That schism is typical of a systemic detachment.  It could be convective over selling... But, a stronger, deeper closing 500 mb ( deeper than struggling beneath 540 dm), would do wonders to focus.

Frankly, this system still looks like it has from the get go to me - a protracted moderate winter storm, and I do think it snows more than rains west of the immediate climo coastal zones...  Obviously across the life-cycle, pulse or two of isolated heavy cannot be ruled out..but the by-and-large distinction is not a major player.  

It is, however, possible to approach major impact by virtue of duration culminating - that's the storm zealot/enthusiasts best pathway to salvation the way this stands now.

What needs to improve to bring irresponsible lust for destruction and dystopia over the top ( lol ):   

This also still is a whopper hemispherically supportive scaffolding, in the sense that the +PNAP ( and by the way ... the PNA looks now more properly involved, and that makes this whole ordeal more H.A. in nature ..) is blossoming western heights, while a vestigial/collapsing -NAO westerly limb blocking node is pivoting SE through the lower Maritime region. That is pinning a neggie node near us...  What is somewhat lacking in all this, is that in situ S/W mechanical feed-in isn't ( thus far in guidance ..) nearly as equally impressive. 

 

Same page....lots of 12" over 36 hr reports.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think H5 looked a bit tighter and focused  to the south a shade.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant the subsidence between the low level deformation near the coast and mid level deformation to the west in SNE...the northern extent was always in question.

Gaps in forcing are easier to point out than the northern extent of mid level deformation IMO.

 

Yeah that moved around a bit. Some runs crushed LWM/ASH/MHT and eventually they became part of the subby zone. I forget what models looked like at d5 though...I'll have to go back through the 12/12 posts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think H5 looked a bit tighter and focused  to the south a shade.

It definitely was. Good step there imo. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah that moved around a bit. Some runs crushed LWM/ASH/MHT and eventually they became part of the subby zone. I forget what models looked like at d5 though...I'll have to go back through the 12/12 posts.

At d5, I was getting crushed by 18-24”. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah that moved around a bit. Some runs crushed LWM/ASH/MHT and eventually they became part of the subby zone. I forget what models looked like at d5 though...I'll have to go back through the 12/12 posts.

Yea, I mean there is always noise and some variance....but I never bought that. My area looked pegged for that from several days out. I remember debating Scott about exactly that. The EURO tried to park the mid level band as far south as the MA/NH border like 24 hrs out, too....called BS on that.

[dryslot]

12z

06z

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It definitely was. Good step there imo. 

I don't think it will get there for like a 2' nuke, but nice to see.

[dryslot]

Even though it did not translate as well at the surface, It was a better look @H5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z

06z

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I mean there is always noise and some variance....but I never bought that. My area looked pegged for that from several days out. I remember debating Scott about exactly that. The EURO tried to park the mid level band as far south as the MA/NH border like 24 hrs out, too....called BS on that.

Yeah. It just sat on models pretty much over the same area for days.  Good call on your part 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Even though it did not translate as well at the surface, It was a better look @H5.

Exactly...read my mind.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

Even though it did not translate as well at the surface, It was a better look @H5.

That’s all I can ask for at this timeframe 

[weathafella]

Cmc is late as in tardy output 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. It just sat on models pretty much over the same area for days.  Good call on your part 

I am not trying to sound like Harvey Leonard...Brian and Scott are right, more often than not, that doesn't work...but it was just so glaring in that instance. Very well may not work out like that, this time....but I'm hedging that way.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will get there for like a 2' nuke, but nice to see.

Probably not but hopefully enough to up the ante a bit. We have plenty of time to get to work. 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly...read my mind.

 

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

That’s all I can ask for at this timeframe 

From the GFS, That's all you want right now, Ha ha.

[MJO812]

Ukie is further east 

[40/70 Benchmark]

H5 still looks like Katrina in the final hours before LF....I want a pre ERC Katrina H5 look.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Cmc is late as in tardy output 

Its out

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[dryslot]

Not the thread for the next one i know, But i mentioned the other day that what looked to be a cutter may end up going underneath us and GFS showed how that may be the case.

[dryslot]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its out

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Not it, That's the reggie.

[dryslot]

12z GGEM is out to hr 15 that i have.

[Henry's Weather]

We should still be leaning heavily on ensembles at this point, right? The energy doesn't come ashore until midday Friday, so we don't know the exact level of detail the deterministic model approach would require. Obviously I'm hoping for a more potent, concentrated shortwave.

[dryslot]

We'll know more when it crosses the Mississippi...........