Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[PowderBeard]

After the mid-December storm I gained a new respect for the Ukie and Euro picking out snow holes. They had them modeled days before. There were some bigger ones modeled but it looks like this is the only one I saved.

 

 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, PowderBeard said:

After the mid-December storm I gained a new respect for the Ukie and Euro picking out snow holes.

 

 

That’s impressive accuracy, wow...

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I remember very specifically adsressing the depictions of QPF   'shadowing'   that were persistently on the guidance leading that event, Dec 17, across the pantheon of leading tech frankly. 

Not that anyone refutes - just sayn'.  

There was zero ambiguity... It was absolutely clear that for a few of us, we were taking it seriously and were leery of that feature and design in those QPF spreads, based upon experience, and we even discussed, profoundly, plausible causalities for that phenomenon in other systems in history.  Ideas such secondary ingesting very dry 'tuck' jet air hygroscopically eating at the fall column, to UVM repositioning mechanics ( Brian's assertion above ..) ...were all viable culprit candidates... all of which are valid reasons for why the models do sometimes paint those systems wth "V" notching QPF 'predesignated' sore-butt zones. Ha

As it were, .. yup - don't argue with the notch!  It verified. We here, in that area, verified the doubts to 11.5" totals.   I just don't bitch and complain about totals nearing a foot -heh.  15+ was more common surrounding N. Worc/ N. Mid and adjacent S-SE NH...

While at it ...  I studied that event as it was unfolding...  the reason for the notch that time, from what I surmised, was a split in the tropospheric vertical column of the storm.  The mid and U/A, post split, drifted through central NE partying on in those shenanigans.  Whilst the 700 mb drifted along LI, festering a bit of secondary that enhanced snow S of here ..but not nearly as prolific as the mid level magic going on N.  May also have been some llv CF helping down there, too.  This all in totality "spared" a band from N of Springfield ( or so ) Ma Nashua NH from the same output.

Exactly....it was clear as day.

 

The forecast for this major snow storm was a general success, as both the snowfall  minimum and maximum areas were correctly placed across southern New England.

 

 

However, the amounts within the general 12-18"range  that encompassed the vast majority of the region were confined to the lower half of said range. Thus perhaps a 10-15" range would have been more suitable.

 

 

A range of 8-12" would have been more representative in the substinence zone of lighter areas, rather than the 10-16" that was used. The placement of this axis was exceptionally well forecast, as were the heavier areas, on the north and south shore. The heavier area throughout western Connecticut, a result of the nexus between the warm and cold conveyor belts, was very well forecast, and the 12-20"+ range was very representative. As good as this forecast was across the forecast area, there were issues just outside of the region that although not technically part of the forecast, due detract from the overall quality of the effort.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we have better 850 inflow than Boxing Day, so I don't think it will be that shredded.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

That’s impressive accuracy, wow...

That is clearly a data void west of Hardwick. That's not correct to me. At least the intensity of that min.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I remember very specifically adsressing the depictions of QPF   'shadowing'   that were persistently on the guidance leading that event, Dec 17, across the pantheon of leading tech frankly. 

Not that anyone refutes - just sayn'.  

There was zero ambiguity... It was absolutely clear that for a few of us, we were taking it seriously and were leery of that feature and design in those QPF spreads, based upon experience, and we even discussed, profoundly, plausible causalities for that phenomenon in other systems in history.  Ideas such secondary ingesting very dry 'tuck' jet air hygroscopically eating at the fall column, to UVM repositioning mechanics ( Brian's assertion above ..) ...were all viable culprit candidates... all of which are valid reasons for why the models do sometimes paint those systems wth "V" notching QPF 'predesignated' sore-butt zones. Ha

As it were, .. yup - don't argue with the notch!  It verified. We here, in that area, verified the doubts to 11.5" totals.   I just don't bitch and complain about totals nearing a foot -heh.  15+ was more common surrounding N. Worc/ N. Mid and adjacent S-SE NH...

While at it ...  I studied that event as it was unfolding...  the reason for the notch that time, from what I surmised, was a split in the tropospheric vertical column of the storm.  The mid and U/A, post split, drifted through central NE partying on in those shenanigans.  Whilst the 700 mb drifted along LI, festering a bit of secondary that enhanced snow S of here ..but not nearly as prolific as the mid level magic going on N.  May also have been some llv CF helping down there, too.  This all in totality "spared" a band from N of Springfield ( or so ) Ma Nashua NH from the same output.

This is an entirely different animal with deep east inflow. There won’t be any sucker holes like that other than shadowed valleys which we see in all these type deals . When you get those massive deform bands folks are going to suck exhaust like that one. This ain’t that. That ain’t this . 

[GCWarrior]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reminds me of 12/26/10 a bit at 500. Lobe going north and trough sort of elongated a bit initially near East Coast.

Oh boy.... talk about a Woodford special.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m guessing most in MA are sitting aoa average snowfall despite a rough January? 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is an entirely different animal with deep east inflow. There won’t be any sucker holes like that other than shadowed valleys which we see in all these type deals 

Right - well ...sure, that may be .

The point nested in the previous:  there are a variety of reasons for those distracting holes, and v-notches...and weird nadirs.    And, sometimes the models will get it wrong and they won't happen, too.  But one is wise to take them seriously when they show up as that lesson has been repeatedly bludgeoned over heads lol

[PowderBeard]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is clearly a data void west of Hardwick. That's not correct to me. At least the intensity of that min.

The min yes but we were in the snow hole every time and ended up with about 6-7" in Belchertown and surrounding towns.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is clearly a data void west of Hardwick. That's not correct to me. At least the intensity of that min.

Has to be some validity, no?

[WinterWolf]

Lol I love how in situations like this, in the beginning stages of modeling, we always see the potential for something special.  Then as we progress, the modeling reveals differences and changes, and the inevitable talk that it’s really not that special after all.  Only to come back towards the end to being pretty dam good.  
 

I think this will do the same thing.  Inflow like that is anomalous to say the least.  I think this will congeal into something pretty impressive imo..for most places in SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Has to be some validity, no?

Well that's why I said intensity of the min. I highly doubt only 2" fell.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Oh the icon...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol I love how in situations like this, in the beginning stages of modeling, we always see the potential for something special.  Then as we progress, the modeling reveals differences and changes, and the inevitable talk that it’s really not that special after all.  Only to come back towards the end to being pretty dam good.  
 

I think this will do the same thing.  Inflow like that is anomalous to say the least.  I think this will congeal into something pretty impressive imo..for most places in SNE. 

I'll become invested starting Saturday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol I love how in situations like this, in the beginning stages of modeling, we always see the potential for something special.  Then as we progress, the modeling reveals differences and changes, and the inevitable talk that it’s really not that special after all.  Only to come back towards the end to being pretty dam good.  
 

I think this will do the same thing.  Inflow like that is anomalous to say the least.  I think this will congeal into something pretty impressive imo..for most places in SNE. 

The question is residency time....if the band zips through in 12 hours, its going to have to be pretty impressive to lay down over a foot generally.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol I love how in situations like this, in the beginning stages of modeling, we always see the potential for something special.  Then as we progress, the modeling reveals differences and changes, and the inevitable talk that it’s really not that special after all.  Only to come back towards the end to being pretty dam good.  
 

I think this will do the same thing.  Inflow like that is anomalous to say the least.  I think this will congeal into something pretty impressive imo..for most places in SNE. 

You can have all the inflow you want, but  if you don't have a strong lifting mechanism like a front, or strong isentropic lift..it won't give you these incredible solutions. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can have all the inflow you want, but  if you don't have a strong lifting mechanism like a front, or strong isentropic lift..it won't give you these incredible solutions. 

That is the issue with the arctic airmass disappearing....just an amorphous bag of crap with no big gradients. Same issue we have had all season, despite the epic pattern change.

Thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is clearly a data void west of Hardwick. That's not correct to me. At least the intensity of that min.

Lol Box and their dumb maps with old lacking data. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that's why I said intensity of the min. I highly doubt only 2" fell.

2"?  

Are you looking at the Quabbin?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't recall arctic cold before the March 2013 even or Dec 1992....hopefully its still decent..at least a foot.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2"?  

Are you looking at the Quabbin?

Was looking at the Ukie graphic that was posted.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Was looking at the Ukie graphic that was posted.

Ahh   I thought you meant the BOX map

[dryslot]

Should be a better 12z GFS, Trough is sharper then 06z.

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can have all the inflow you want, but  if you don't have a strong lifting mechanism like a front, or strong isentropic lift..it won't give you these incredible solutions. 

I wasn’t necessarily saying incredible..just impressive.   I think this will congeal into a potent system..where that happens is obviously important to us.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

GFs with the Philly special lol.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GFs with the Philly special lol.

How much?

[dendrite]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly....it was clear as day.

 

The forecast for this major snow storm was a general success, as both the snowfall  minimum and maximum areas were correctly placed across southern New England.

 

 

However, the amounts within the general 12-18"range  that encompassed the vast majority of the region were confined to the lower half of said range. Thus perhaps a 10-15" range would have been more suitable.

 

 

A range of 8-12" would have been more representative in the substinence zone of lighter areas, rather than the 10-16" that was used. The placement of this axis was exceptionally well forecast, as were the heavier areas, on the north and south shore. The heavier area throughout western Connecticut, a result of the nexus between the warm and cold conveyor belts, was very well forecast, and the 12-20"+ range was very representative. As good as this forecast was across the forecast area, there were issues just outside of the region that although not technically part of the forecast, due detract from the overall quality of the effort.

The suckerhole moved though. That’s the point. I wasn’t modeled to get crushed until 00z the night before. 

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GFs with the Philly special lol.

we need to come to the realization that there will not be a JP for us here.....I think in the end, anything over 6 inches will be a win for us....But then again we were the JP region on the models for this last system and we know how that worked out

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The suckerhole moved though. That’s the point. I wasn’t modeled to get crushed until 00z the night before. 

I meant the subsidence between the low level deformation near the coast and mid level deformation to the west in SNE...the northern extent was always in question.

Gaps in forcing are easier to point out than the northern extent of mid level deformation IMO.