dryslot Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS is garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 SE Mass special on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case. The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is. It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now. Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump. That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT. That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE. I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40? Based on an off hour FV3 run? What do you think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ICON/Euro rule? European power team? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: gfs average hit for most except extreme SE and cape Still good for SWCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40? If snow falls out of trees for 24 hours after a 24 hour storm....did it snow for 48 hours? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS is garbage. I'm sick of all these elongated and multiple lows this winter, with each one chasing the other's convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: ICON/Euro rule? European power team? the germans are coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40? Does that include the hills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Modfan2 said: Does that include the hills! Union and Staffordville? Trying to think of other hill towns but coming up blank... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case. The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is. It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now. Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump. That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT. That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE. I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup Ray just threw his phone and computer into a ditch on the highway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The storm around the 6th (the cutter) looks better for up here than the early month storm, at least on the GFS twins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z icon crushes sw zones up to hr120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Oh boy oh boy look what jumped up to number 1 on the analog list 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Anything but 01/15, anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 cape scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. Agree. We look and watch but weigh it very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 53 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS is garbage. At least it's been consistent with the cutter that's right on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, PWMan said: At least it's been consistent with the cutter that's right on its heels. GFS almost never fails to verify a 10 day cutter, lol. The end of this 18z run has warm heavy spring rains to Maine. Goodbye whatever pack is left after that cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 V16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: V16 Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ray just threw his phone and computer into a ditch on the highway. I would if I thought he were right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: V16 Let me help: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would if I thought he were right... He could be. Nobody knows at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Let me help: We’ll take our 5” and run lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He could be. Nobody knows at this point. I said what I THOUGHT..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said what I THOUGHT..... So did I lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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