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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like generally speaking there is less resistance to cutters in December, than later in the year.

Yes....that is empirically true. A number of reasons....cryospheric maturation up north, SSTs much colder in Feb than Dec, etc.

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Pretty good NCEP summarization ...echoing the sensible voice(s) found in here -

Regarding the system tracking eastward from the Plains and then
redeveloping near the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast,
probabilistic winter weather guidance shows the best potential for
meaningful snow extending from the Midwest through parts of the
Ohio Valley and then from the interior Mid-Atlantic/central
Appalachians and across New England.  There is still some
uncertainty regarding the rain/snow transition zone.  Meanwhile
the potential complexity of the evolution aloft over the East
Coast further tempers confidence in specifics, especially given
how sensitive precipitation location/type/intensity will be to
important details that will likely take into the short range time
frame to resolve.
  There may be a small margin for error between a
significant snowfall and a modest one.  Farther south expect the
highest rainfall totals to extend from near the east-central
Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley into North Carolina or vicinity.
Some of this activity may be moderate to heavy but its relatively
swift motion should keep rainfall totals from becoming too extreme

 
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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember there was hand wringing and consternation posts like today prior to the Morch 2013 storm .. and then most were buried in 20-28” 

That trepidation seemed fairly warranted in my opinion. Exotic fujiwara with marginal boundary layer is not exactly a layup. We knew the potential was there for a biggie, but it seemed there was a lot that could go wrong. It did for southern RI.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know how we know it'll rival history ?

because 3 days later it's 62 F with howling southerly gales -

 

Sums this winter up perfectly...the couple of times you due hook up with a hot chick, there is a fat thug named Bruno in the alley waiting to have his way with you...

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sums this winter up perfectly...the couple of times you due hook up with a hot chick, there is a fat thug named Bruno in the alley waiting to have his way with you...

heh...and it helps if said 'hot chick' wasn't the prison yard princess in a blonde wig to begin with  -

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