Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Unless Trudeau knows something we don't

He's pissed right now at us so he won't help us.......lol

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What should we be looking for down south to see which camp is right? The NAM and RGEM are very different once you get outside SNE.

This is like a mini-storm inside the storm. LOL

Not a bad comedic take there - no. Fits ...heh.

But I don't think we can - I think we gotta now-cast this beyotch.  

These spins are more like a chaos lows inside of a bag of general processes that are too discrete even for the higher resolution models to really nail down - it's like they ( NAM .. RGEM ..HDRP... gonorrhea ..whatever) are too discrete for their own good, because they are not discrete enough - 

They also have different convective sequencing/physics built into their models than the Global scales - or at least used to ...  I also wonder ...as this whole thing wobbles through the heights do fall ... that should in theory destablize the column. So then they're handling this along when suddenly, they see their own tale!  They start chasing it  - ... 'oh, why shit - better spin up a 150 naut mi wide EOF1 tornado then'  Kidding of course, but because their own generate instability, subsequently triggers a convective responses -

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Well, my guess is the UKIE loses that juiced tues PM Low moving just east of BOS.  I would be shocked if that didn't trend weaker and well east

[dryslot]

That 12z GFS really slays up here in ME.

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The CMC suite has been pretty consistent with that and it’s interesting how some of the other models try to regenerate the low down there now. I guess we’ll see, but you have to think the canadians are overdoing it.

It’s real and spectacular 

[dryslot]

The GGEM wont let it go.

[MaineJayhawk]

I guess "slay" is the verb du jour today

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

The GGEM wont let it go.

That's way further east

[nianticct]

4 INCHES IN waterford now with heavy snow temp 29

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I guess "slay" is the verb du jour today

I was going to go it looks real and its spectacular, But Kev beat me to it.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That's way further east

It is from 0z.

[IowaStorm05]

12 minutes ago, nianticct said:

4 INCHES IN waterford now with heavy snow temp 29

Not bad!! 

[dryslot]

No fukin way this is happening.

[Drz1111]

The storm is like literally happening right now and I would be totally unsurprised by anything between 6" and 16" in  Cape Elizabeth.  It's almost stupid how uncertain it all is.  

 

Also, the ensembles suck for capturing the actual spread of possible outcomes. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The GGEM wont let it go.

It just did .. for SNE lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

That’s more in line where we should see it go IMo

[Greg]

That model is not correct. Bank on it.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No fukin way this is happening.

Phin to dryslot special. 

[IowaStorm05]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No fukin way this is happening.

Trudeau hasn’t learned a thing or two about topography and rain shadows?!

 

Maybe he skipped out on environmental science period and was Coketish with the other young ladies in the bathroom at Tim Hortons

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It just did .. for SNE lol

Look at who is posting and where they are from....more illuminating than any model data itself.

[Drz1111]

Literally have reliable models showing anywhere from 5" to 20" with virga 60 miles to my south.   I am rarely salty about DA MODLEZ  but this is pushing even my tolerance for this [stuff].

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Literally have reliable models showing anywhere from 5" to 20" with virga 60 miles to my south.   I am rarely salty about DA MODLEZ  but this is pushing even my tolerance for this [stuff].

What town you in

[Drz1111]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What town you in

Cape Elizabeth, ME.

NAM is a nothing burger here.  No tertiary development and the big band is at a min when overhead.

Canadians have us on the cold side of the tertiary low that becomes the dominant consolidated circulation - so we get 20"

para has us at 16", but mostly from the first big band with some wrap around mood flakes.

Euro has been waffling back and forth between 10" and 16" from run to run.

Uncle.  No idea what's coming. 

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Literally have reliable models showing anywhere from 5" to 20" with virga 60 miles to my south.   I am rarely salty about DA MODLEZ  but this is pushing even my tolerance for this [stuff].

Think of it this way. One of the models will end up being much closer to the ground truth when all is said and done. The other models will bow to it.

[Tiktock]

[JC-CT]

OMG I just saw what the herpes tried to sell us at 6z. lmao

[STILL N OF PIKE]

UKIE hits PSM to Dryslot hard with that Secondary low and clips N Mass/s Nh will 2-3"

[PhineasC]

GFS also has the low enhancement up here into Maine. GFS has had a total turnaround on this storm in 24 hours. NAM is lamest here right now. 

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS also has the low enhancement up here into Maine. GFS has had a total turnaround on this storm in 24 hours. NAM is lamest here right now. 

Nam is built for this. The GFS isn't.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Greg said:

Nam is built for this. The GFS isn't.

Maybe in the sense the Titanic was technically built to withstand a direct hit on an iceberg, sure.