CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: Yeah def further north, not quite as bonkers, seems to see slp wanting to hang back near NYC more. I still don't think it's more than just some -SN regenerating. NAM made sense to me. Maybe they'll be a small weenie band somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I still don't think it's more than just some -SN regenerating. NAM made sense to me. Maybe they'll be a small weenie band somewhere. rgem hasn't been very consistent with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I still don't think it's more than just some -SN regenerating. NAM made sense to me. Maybe they'll be a small weenie band somewhere. Probably won't know until tonight with that.. But definitely could see 1 to 3 more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I work afternoons. Jeff Bezos is still sending us out in rental uhaul vans with rear wheel drive. As of right now, subject to change. But I already have to be at work in less than an hour and half. Could be a really bad day at work coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM ramped the QPF up again a bit after slacking some on the 06z run over in this area. Sure did ... looks like .4 (avg) added back ... just off the top of my head. I never took that seriously though with that NAM .. it's like a dealing with a intelligent, 16 year-old daughter, unfortunately equally afflicted(ing ...as in people around her) with emotionally/insecurity loose canon neurosis with that thing - But the grid (FOUS) was back to 1.83" from storm's main bulk, ... afterward, that 24 hours of glutting richest sets in... That stuff to me - btw - has the potential to come down a bit more appealing than the radar, but I almost want the wind to relax some for that too ..hm. The last event had that look to it, too, as you may recall... but it didn't pan out so well. It looked to me like the lower soundng dried out too much in those intervening periods between the main stuff and the arrival of the beefier arctic desert. I don't know if I see a drying source this time. We'll see... General reader: Logan also has a sneaky warm low level to 35F ... but not until the ballast of said heaviest is in the books; has the impression that the CF probably wobbled NW for a couple hours around the end of bulk goodies. Could see it being 27 F at BED at that tie... Otherwise 32F while ~ 10” falls in 6 hrs on the grid. There occurs ~ 5” in the 6 hrs prior to that 10 ... and depending how much low level mixing in that end pesky interval determines how much of it us 3 or 4”, waffle batter or just cat paws for a brief stint ... Winds are never greater than 40 deg angled ... NE 38 kt sustained at maximum!!! We got us a bona fide mo’fuggass Nor'easta bitches But that’s all out at Logan .. in the stupid harbor. With those grid numbers, the synoptic realism is probably pure snow out toward Cambridge ... and Jer' dawg... and beyond. I just have trouble with 1030+ mb height draped climo -ideal and all those closing centers SE of NYC -PVD line ... That's a compact CF period - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not sure which model is smoking more crack, The Nam or Reggie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie has the low, but more across ern, especially NE MA into NH and ME. The Canadians have barely wavered for several cycles whereas the NAM and GFS have been a little jumpy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Not sure which model is smoking more crack, The Nam or Reggie? I know it's the RGEM, but it has been really consistent with this track and strength. Just run after run of the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Not sure which model is smoking more crack, The Nam or Reggie? They both like to take drags off each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: The Canadians have barely wavered for several cycles whereas the NAM and GFS have been a little jumpy... This version is a lot less aggressive on 12z compared to 00z and 06z. At least down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: This version is a lot less aggressive on 12z compared to 00z and 06z. At least down here. It still has a defined coastal low that comes more north up here. The NAM just fizzles outside of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: It still has a defined coastal low that comes more north up here. The NAM just fizzles outside of SNE. The NAM hangs the focus of slp back south of Long Island - just a completely different evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: The NAM hangs the focus of slp back south of Long Island - just a completely different evolution. Yep, you can see the two camps for sure. Euro seems to kinda split the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 hours ago, wxsniss said: Yeah it's a really complex evolution... between a baroclinic zone that shifts further southeast courtesy of Monday's system, and leftover chunks of vorticity rotating around the broad trough... the end result is these cascading SLPs.... you get the sense a much bigger potential that Tip described is there, but it's just too discombobulated to materialize. 8 hours ago, wxsniss said: Agree... when it's CMC / RGEM / HRPDS leading the way, you gotta remain skeptical. But I do think it's reasonable to expect that none of this will be sorted out on guidance until later Monday, even if the lead time is < 36 hours. Too much in flux with Monday's system underway. Also as someone suggested earlier, this could be just a transition on guidance towards a more continuous event. 48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The reason for that is because this entire system's hemispheric footing is hugely teleconnector supported, but only partially fed into by actual S/W mechanics. It's been the over-shadowing theme in all guidance in this thing from the get go. One can see that if the observe the 500 mb height evolution over the last week's -worth of runs - the entire L/W aspect of the trough opens up, rather than the more typical deal where a big wind/max and DPVA event forces height fall feed-backs; like the surrounding medium is 'pulling away' from the ~ mid Atlantic instead. The western N/A ridge bulges as the last of the recent -NAO block tendency rotates through the Maritimes, geometrically abandoning the cross-haired mid Atlantic. It's an usual evolution - which is why ( imho ) the top CIPs contender analogs really don't look very appealingling like they fit - not to me anywho...I can argue why ( veraciously! ) but this is paragraph needs to shut up at this point because the profound introspection of the modern Twit-spheric reader probably isn't making it to this "." The surrounding super-synoptic circumstance thus only offers modest actual 'constructive interference' within the virtual framework of the model(s) .. within that realm, the modest S/W feeds are giving back solutions that just can't quite - ugh - focus a low that does a more coherent singular entity and capture/F-wara sequencing - instead, we end up with a broader center with multiple centers .. in reality, as the GGEM shows, a more cohesive bomb "could" materialize ...nothing we've seen before that in the guidance ... ( last night through now and probably through this evening ) is really that low. You what this reminds me of... ? It's almost like the models "can't see" inside the nucleus of the trough, and are guessing/inferring SOMEthing is there. Meanwhile... maybe these late HRDP this and GGEM that ( and the UKMET laughing when the former two make their jokes means it's an abetter ... heh ) maybe these models are the first to see what/where the more important resulting cyclonic response from all this stuff was destined to happen. I mean c'mon ..that's what that is.. This anchor low spitting and shearing off basically warm frontal meso lows toward the NE...and then suddenly, one of those bombs to 973 with a vicious no-warning isollabaric wind warning with 7.8" of snow in 2 hours in the GGEM .. that is the storm! Thanks for this Tip. See discussion ~ 2am last night... we were raising the similar points, without the same expert understanding. I wish I could remember the blizzard from ?2013 when guidance had a similar struggle for similar reasons... no single dominant shortwave within a great trough setup, and therefore a discombobulated solution on guidance... I remember only that I referred to the multiple spawned SLPs as mogwais popping up (reference to the movie Gremlins), but guidance eventually coalesced around a dominant shortwave with a blizzard. I also remember a quick leadtime of guidance "transitioning" towards that eventual outcome. Before I get jumped on, I'm not at all saying that a blizzard will verify tomorrow... just pointing out the evolution similarities in what we are seeing. I do also think that guidance may not "see" the possibility in relatively shorter lead time because of so much in flux today. Fun times! 10 days ago seems like a different season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I know it's the RGEM, but it has been really consistent with this track and strength. Just run after run of the same thing. I've been on the 6-10" bus all along, I don't think that's going to change here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They both like to take drags off each other. I mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I mean lol A little aggressive to say the least. Haven't seen the forecast offices focusing on that or taking it literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I've been on the 6-10" bus all along, I don't think that's going to change here. Definitely better to keep expectations in check and then be pleasantly surprised! I'm kinda in the 12-15" mindset, depending on if the upslope aspect delivers. I don't buy the 2.5" of liquid the Reginald has been offering for a couple days now, but maybe 1.25" is within reach. It's going to rip here on the E wind for a while no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This is fun because we have something legit to be tracking, with the storm, as it is happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It still has a defined coastal low that comes more north up here. The NAM just fizzles outside of SNE. It is hard to know what is real and what isn't ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) within that inner chamber of this thing's busted ravioli low pressure. I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution. Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buying," in front of x-y-z ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ... That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case. The rest is what we call the rarer coup de etat winner model - sometimes I just want it to be an ICONic NAM-eramma ding dong model just to chap the asses of modeling conceit. lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, Dan said: Glad to see someone else in Southeast NH. Couple towns north of you in Brentwood. Fingers crossed. Got really screwed in the December storm. Absolutely we did. Bands danced around us the whole storm. This time im hoping we get revenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It is hard to know what it real and what is ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) with that inner chamber of busted ravioli low pressure. I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution. Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buy" x-y-z ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ... That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case. The rest is what call a coup de etat What should we be looking for down south to see which camp is right? The NAM and RGEM are very different once you get outside SNE. This is like a mini-storm inside the storm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What if it just, like, bombs out around the benchmark 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: What if it just, like, bombs out around the benchmark I'm not a red tag but I believe it would be a good thing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I'm not a red tag but I believe it would be a good thing I'd like @USCAPEWEATHERAF to weigh in on the possibilities 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What if it just, like, bombs out around the benchmark Yeah if we use my BM of 41/70, I'd like to have a black hole right over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah if we use my BM of 41/70 I was thinking more like 40.5, also mostly just joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The CMC suite has been pretty consistent with that and it’s interesting how some of the other models try to regenerate the low down there now. I guess we’ll see, but you have to think the canadians are overdoing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: I was thinking more like 40.5, also mostly just joking I know, We kid, There's no bombing for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I know, We kid, There's no bombing for this one. Unless Trudeau knows something we don't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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