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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

thats a thump in central/ eastern SNE On Nam..geezus

Tickled the CF further east too....models are prob too far west with it so I'd expect to see them come a bit east with that feature as we near 0 lead time.

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10 hours ago, wxsniss said:

All this energy spawning disparate lows reminds me of a storm a few years ago... sorry I can't remember the date...

On guidance a large trough with multiple pieces of vorticity spawning different SLPs as they hit the coast, and we compared it to mogwais... guidance struggled and eventually coalesced into a single dominant SLP... reality was a SNE blizzard

RGEM did the same thing as CMC and HRPDS, and Euro hints at it too... glad to see a potential popping up before it's off Maine

The reason for that is because this entire system's hemispheric footing is hugely teleconnector supported, but only partially fed into by actual S/W mechanics. It's been the over-shadowing theme in all guidance in this thing from the get go.  One can see that if they observe the 500 mb height evolution over the last week's -worth of runs - the entire L/W aspect of the trough opens up, rather than the more typical deal where a big wind/max and DPVA event forces height fall feed-backs;  like the surrounding medium is 'pulling away' from the ~ mid Atlantic instead.  The western N/A ridge bulges as the last of the recent -NAO block tendency rotates through the Maritime, geometrically abandoning the cross-haired mid Atlantic.  It's an usual evolution - which is why ( imho ) the top CIPs contender analogs really don't look very appealingly like they fit - not to me anywho...I can argue why ( veraciously! ) but this is a paragraph that needs to shut up at this point because the profound introspection of the modern Twit-spheric reader probably isn't making it to this "."  

The surrounding super-synoptic circumstance thus only offers modest actual 'constructive interference' within the virtual framework of the model(s) .. within that realm, the modest S/W feeds are giving back solutions that just can't quite - ugh - focus a low that does a more coherent singular entity and capture/F-wara sequencing - instead, we end up with a broader center with multiple centers .. in reality, as the GGEM shows, a more cohesive bomb "could" materialize ...nothing we've seen before that in the guidance ... ( last night through now and probably through this evening ) is really that low.

You what this reminds me of... ?  It's almost like the models "can't see" inside the nucleus of the trough, and are guessing/inferring SOMEthing is there.  Meanwhile... maybe these late HRDP this and GGEM that ( and the UKMET laughing when the former two make their jokes means it's an abetter ... heh ) maybe these models are the first to see what/where the more important resulting cyclonic response from all this stuff was destined to happen.  I mean c'mon ..that's what that is..  This anchor low spitting and shearing off basically warm frontal meso lows toward the NE...and then suddenly, one of those bombs to 973 with a vicious no-warning isollabaric wind thrashing transporting a shattered 7.8" of snow in 2 hours in the GGEM .. that is the storm!

 

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